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Although China has emerged as an increasingly influential global actor over recent decades, it is unclear whether a more fundamental transformation is shaking processes of regionalisation in this context. Our scenario-based case study considers the spatial reconfiguration of the rapidly globalising Arctic with varying degrees of Chinese engagement. More specifically, we examine alternative and transformational configurations of the Arctic in 2049, and ponder upon the plausibility of the hypothesised changes in light of three schools of thought on International Relations – realism, liberal institutionalism and relationalism. Hence, we explore how the rise of China could potentially alter the regional dynamics and whether, consequently, regions should be rethought both empirically and theoretically. We conclude that pluralistic discussion on the multiple regional outcomes is a necessary precondition for achieving a balanced and democratic future in the Arctic and beyond.

This paper analyses the normative underpinnings of China's participation in processes of Arctic regionalization. Building on Gareth Evans' concept of responsible international citizenship, it argues that China's Arctic engagement is chiefly motivated by the government's efforts to promote the wellbeing of Chinese citizens – a state of affairs that the current regime equals with the ideal of social stability. As a responsible international citizen, China should, however, advance this "enlightened self-interest" vis-á-vis other members of the Arctic international society, that is, either internalize the established practices that organize the Arctic region or mold them in peaceful ways. In the empirical parts of the paper, we first identify three concrete aims that drive forward China's participation in Arctic regionalization – creating wealth through more "green" growth, mitigating the effects of climate change on China, and promoting a unifying ideology. We then suggest that China has not directly violated any of the key organizing principles of the Arctic international society, but it has found distinct ways to act out these concrete goals and advance the wellbeing of its citizens. Such means include somewhat challenging the dominant interpretation of these norms and refraining from advocating stricter environmental standards.

This chapter offers an account of China's ecological footprint in the Arctic. Because China is the world's biggest carbon dioxide emitter and a significant contributor of short-lived climate pollutants, the chapter pays special attention to China's role in international efforts to tackle climate change. In addition to China's domestic climate policies, the chapter elaborates the state's contribution to international climate negotiations under the United Nations climate regime. It also introduces the ways in which China's Arctic policy addresses climate change and reviews China's potential to reduce black carbon and other pollutants.

The chapter focuses on economic presence of China in the Arctic regions. First, it considers the economic relations between China and the Nordic states, North American Arctic and Russia. China and Chinese actors are active in different ways in different parts of the Arctic. Second, it looks at the key Arctic industries, where China's role is or may become relevant: shipping, oil and gas, minerals extraction, and tourism. Finally, the chapter considers the two dimensions of concerns related to Chinese economic activities: the problem of economic and political influence gained through investments and the environment and social performance as well as reliability of Chinese companies.

The Arctic region is rapidly transforming from a peripheral region to a global theatre with an increasing number of non-Arctic stakeholders. One illustration of this transformation process is the growing presence of China in the Arctic. This report first discusses China's changing role in global affairs (Chapter 1). This provides background for exploring China's interests, role and presence in the Arctic. The study of China's presence in the region is carried out through the lens of the Chinese government's four priority areas towards the region as expressed in the country's first official Arctic statement – the White Paper – from January 2018 (Chapter 2). Further, Chinese interests and actions in the Arctic are studied from the viewpoint of one particular Arctic State, Finland. The authors provide an overview of a broad spectrum of Chinese-Finnish interactions in different contexts, including investments in Northern Finland and co-operation within the areas of Finnish Arctic expertise and research. In addition, concerns and risks related to interaction with Chinese actors are discussed (Chapter 3). Over the past decade, China has undertaken an effort to demonstrate its growing knowledge of, and commitment to, the Arctic region. Some actors and experts are concerned about China's aims and actions in the region, while others express hope for Chinese institutions, investors and companies to contribute to regional development and knowledge-building. The report presents a balanced and multifaceted, although necessarily not fully comprehensive, picture of China's rise as an actor in the Arctic.