Pres Vladimir Putin says it's Russia's "most urgent problem." Commentator Pat Buchanan argues it's part of the reason America is "disintegrating." Former US Commerce Secretary Pete Peterson calls it a "threat more grave and certain than those posed by chemical weapons, nuclear proliferation, or ethnic strife." This global menace are babies. Or, more accurately, the lack thereof. In fact, if you listen to politicians and pundits, it's the most dangerous threat they've faced since, well, overpopulation. At a certain point, University of Gottingen economist Klaus Prettner concedes, fertility rates could fall so far that they counteract these positive effects. But for the time being, there's no reason to panic. A grayer Russia could also be a better Russia. Adapted from the source document.
Reflecting on US-Soviet relations late in his presidency, Ronald Reagan once mused about one thing that could unite humanity: a threat from a power from outer space. At the time, the sci-fi reference seemed a little out of place in a discussion about international relations, but the Gipper had a point: Bitter rivals don't tend to unite unless they face a common threat from a third party. Some psychologists, however, now suggest people may not have to wait for flying saucers in the search for a global threat that can bring humanity together -- they may already have created one themselves in the form of hotter temperatures, rising sea levels, and increasingly unpredictable weather. Adapted from the source document.
As much as we might like to think we're capable of objectively evaluating the political candidates we vote for, factors like income, ethnicity, and gender strongly affect political preferences. And now a wave of psychological research into voting behavior is bringing to light other, much less obvious predilections. Adapted from the source document.
One of the cruelest ironies of global warming is that a problem largely caused by wealthy countries will be predominantly felt by the world's poorest. Whether it's coastal flooding in Bangladesh or deserts expanding across Africa, these consequences can seem distant to those lucky enough to enjoy the air-conditioned automobiles and factory-farmed meat of the global north. But 1 percenters won't go completely unscathed. Here are five ways climate change will affect the lifestyles of the rich and comfortable in coming year: 1. bumpier flights, 2. bad breaks, 3. slippery slopes, 4. pricier pinot, and 5. caviar killer. Adapted from the source document.
According to economists Nico Voigtlander and Hans-Joachim Voth, the 14th-century plague -- which wiped out between one-third and one-half of the continent's population -- may have been the factor most responsible for producing European prosperity. It wasn't primarily new ideas or technology, the authors argue -- it was the plague. According to their logic, incomes should fall as populations rise, barring a major increase in available resources. Conversely, when a population decreases due to war or disease, income go up as there's more available land and labor becomes scarce. The effect is usually temporary. But the population shock of the Black Death was so dramatic that it caused a permanent increase in incomes -- an estimated 30% in Western Europe between 1500 and 1700. Adapted from the source document.
In a recent report for International Studies Quarterly, political scientists Paul Midford and Indra de Soysa looked at US and Chinese arms transfers to Africa from 1989 to 2006, using data collected by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. They found no statistical correlation between China and the types of regimes it supplied with weapons, while US arms shipments were slightly negatively correlated with democracy. In plain English, China actually turned out to be less likely to sell weapons to dictators than America was. The report focuses on Africa, but similar human rights concerns have been raised about US weapons transfers to Persian Gulf autocracies such as Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and the United Arab Emirates, which collectively helped drive a more than 300% jump in US arms sales in 2011 amid rising tensions with Iran. Adapted from the source document.
In an interview, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, Nigerian finance minister, touched on the biggest challenges facing Nigeria and why she's bullish about Africa. In Nigeria, the lack of strong institutions is to be understood. But it does make for a different way of doing business. Some of the things that are looked upon as corruption over there have found legal and professional names over here, in the US. For almost a decade, Africa's economy has been growing at close to 5% at a time of real global fragility. African policymakers, finally, are putting in place good economic policies and sound macroeconomic management. And throughout the crisis, they did not roll back these policies. The lessons have been learned. Adapted from the source document.
Happiness is relative: It largely depends not on your own good fortune, but on how much richer people around you are. Economist Richard Easterlin has been trying to crack the happiness code for decades. In the 1970s, he developed the theory that has become known as the "Easterlin paradox," which argues that although people with higher incomes tend to report higher levels of life satisfaction, countries don't become generally more satisfied as they become richer. Easterlin has tested his hypothesis on the most dramatic example of economic development in recent history: China's post-liberalization boom. Easterlin and his team found that life satisfaction in China actually declined from 1990 through the mid-2000s, according to their recent paper in the journal of the National Academy of Sciences. Adapted from the source document.
There's been plenty of debate in recent years about whether humanitarian aid actually helps rid the world of extreme poverty. The inability of developed countries to make a dent in the problem, despite spending billions of dollars each year, is what economist and noted aid skeptic William Easterly calls the "second tragedy" of global poverty. But a recent study takes this skepticism to a whole new level, suggesting that food aid not only does not work, but also can prolong the violent conflicts it's meant to help resolve. Looking at a sample of developing countries between 1972 and 2006, economists Nancy Qian of Yale University and Nathan Nunn of Harvard University found a direct correlation between U.S. food aid and civil conflict. For every 10 percent increase in the amount of food aid delivered, they discovered, the likelihood of violent civil conflict rises by 1.14 percentage points. The results confirm anecdotal reports that food aid during conflicts is often stolen by armed groups, essentially making international donors part of the rebel logistics effort. Adapted from the source document.
From the liberal largesse of George Soros to the big-spending ways of Republican financiers like Sheldon Adelson, the 2012 U.S. presidential election is being shaped almost as much by billionaire backers as by the voters and candidates themselves. America's permissive campaign finance laws give these political sugar daddies unique clout, but it's not a purely American phenomenon. When it comes to behind-the-scenes moneymen, it's a global bull market. This article details billionaire backers in other countries. Adapted from the source document.
The increasingly prevalent practice of sex-selective abortion in several Asian countries -- the product of modern medical techniques meeting ancient gender prejudices -- is a rare issue that has managed to shock the consciences of Western religious conservatives and feminists. Its effects have been dramatic: According to India's 2011 census, there were only 914 girls age 6 or younger for every 1,000 boys; in China, there were 118 males for every 100 females in 2010. While most attention has focused on the millions of "missing women," as Nobel laureate Amartya Sen famously called them, the effects of sex-selective abortion, particularly on the girls who are born, turns out not to be quite so simple. A 2011 study by economists from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago and Tel Aviv University found that areas of India where prenatal sex selection was more prevalent also saw lower rates of malnutrition among girls, particularly in rural areas. The reason: When no prenatal selection is taking place, families tend to continue having children until they have a boy. Due to ultrasound technology and abortion, families may have fewer girls, but those who are born are better fed. This finding isn't likely to convince anyone of the merits of sex-selective abortion. But it is nearly a truism in international development that greater female empowerment correlates with smaller family sizes. New census data also suggest that Indian women are enjoying greater literacy, better health care, and more workplace participation, which will hopefully reduce birth rates further in a way less closely tied to ugly prejudice. Adapted from the source document.
The stories you missed in 2012 are presented. These are: 1. India and Pakistan trade away. 2. Brazil becomes an immigration destination, 3. Inuits strike it rich. 4. A welcome end to a cruel disease. 5. The copyright wars go 3-D. 6. The end of the Indian call center. 7. Hong Kong fights back. 8. Moscow on the med. 9. Oil in central Africa, what could go wrong? 10. The island dispute you haven't heard of. Adapted from the source document.
The emphasis on innovation, combined with generous subsidies, not to mention a policy of keeping the won low to boost exports, has helped South Korean industrial giants like Samsung, Kia, and Hyundai rack up global market share. South Korea was the first wealthy country to emerge from recession in 2009, and household income has grown for the last 11 quarters. Poland was long considered one of the least promising of the newly capitalist states of Eastern Europe, lagging behind tigers like the Czech Republic and Slovenia. But Europe's bad years have been good for the Poles. The country's economy grew 15.8% between 2008 and 2011, while the European Union's cumulative economy shrank by half a percent. On July 1 -- Canada Day -- of this year, it became official: The average Canadian is richer than the average American for the first time. With government finances in order, Sweden has weathered the storm better than most. Indonesia has maintained annual growth rates of over 4.5% throughout the recession and had the second-highest growth rate in the G-20 last year. Adapted from the source document.
Political scientists Bernd Beber and Alexandra Scacco of New York University have discovered an unusual method to detect rigged voting: looking only at the numbers. They came upon the idea somewhat by accident and wrote up their findings in the journal Political Analysis. When Beber and Scacco examined the results from the Nigerian election -- where there had been widespread and credible accounts of fraud -- they found several of these exact inconsistencies. In particular, local tabulators tended to overuse zero as the last digit in returns and underuse the number 2. Zeros were overused in general. When the authors applied the same analysis to a Swedish election where there had been no reports of fraud, they found no such inconsistencies. Adapted from the source document.
