THE KEY TO A REPUBLICAN PARTY VICTORY IS TWOFOLD: WE MUST PUT FORWARD A SPECIFIC CONSERVATIVE AGENDA FOR PROGRESS AND OPPORTUNITY--AND WE MUST UNIFY BEHIND IT. REPUBLICANS CANNOT BE THE GOVERNING PARTY ONLY BY LOOKING BACK TO 1980 AND 1984. THOSE PLATFORMS MUST SERVE AS OUR STARTING POINT. BUT BOTH WERE THEMSELVES FORWARD-LOOKING AND SOMETIMES CONTROVERSIAL EFFORTS TO GIVE SUBSTANCE TO OUR PROMISES OF CHANGE FOR THE BETTER. THE REPUBLICANS CAN WIN IN NOVEMBER ONLY IF WE CONTINUE TO MOVE FORWARD BY ADOPTING A CONSENSUS CONSERVATIVE AGENDA FOR THE 1990S. IF WE DO SO AND CAMPAIGN ON IT, WE CAN WIN A NATIONAL MANDATE TO ENACT OUR PROPOSALS. THEN WE MUST FOLLOW THROUGH--AND RISK HAVING TO GRAPPLE ONCE AGAIN WITH THE PROBLEMS OF SUCCESS.
THIS PAPER REPORTS UPON SOME CURRENT RESEARCH WHICH PROVIDES CLARIFICATION, BOTH TO SOME OF THE OLDER PARADOXES AND TO SOME OF THE NEWER ISSUES THAT ARISE OUT OF THE ECONOMICS OF UNCERTAINTY. IT IS SHOWN THAT A UTILITY FUNCTION CAN BE SPECIFIED WHICH CAN ACCOUNT FOR ALL THE NORMAL PATTERNS OF BEHAVIOUR ASSOCIATED WITH UNCERTAIN CHOICE, BUT WHICH IS ALSO MORE GENERAL, IN THAT IT IS CAPABLE OF ACCOMMODATING BEHAVIOUR THAT HAS PREVIOUSLY BEEN VIEWED AS IRRATIONAL, PERVERSE OR ABERRATIONAL. AT THE SAME TIME A FRAMEWORK IS PROVIDED WITHIN WHICH MORE RECENT APPROACHES TOWARDS THE ANALYSIS OF BEHAVIOUR UNDER UNCERTAINTY CAN BE BETTER UNDERSTOOD, DEVELOPED AND CLARIFIED, THROUGH HIGHLIGHTING THE IMPORTANCE THAT REQUIRES TO BE ATTACHED TO PSYCHOLOGICAL, AS WELL AS ECONOMIC, VARIABLES FOR THE CONSTRUCTION OF A GENERAL THEORY OF DECISION MAKING UNDER UNCERTAINTY.
THEARTICLE CONSISTS OF AN INTERVIEW OF EIGHT LEADING CONSERVATIVE ACTIVISTS INCLUDING JACK KEMP, PETE DU PONT, NEWT GINGRICH, AND PAUL WEYRICH. THEY ASSESS STRATEGIES FOR THE CONSERVATIVE MOVEMENT IN THE WAKE OF GEORGE BUSH'S VICTORY AND THE CONSOLIDATION OF LIBERAL DEMOCRATIC CONTROL OF THE CONGRESS.
Context There is growing evidence that vertebrates inhabiting the extensive savannas of northern Australia are undergoing a widespread decline as a result of the effects of anthropogenic land management such as the grazing of domestic stock. Despite the ubiquity of pastoral grazing in the Australian savannas, few studies have examined the changes in terrestrial vertebrate fauna following destocking.
Aims The present study monitored the response of birds, mammals and reptiles to destocking of a newly acquired conservation reserve in north-eastern Australia.
Methods The vertebrate fauna was sampled over a 5-year period. Standardised 1-ha survey was conducted twice a year in 2006, 2007 and 2010, at 40 sites representing six habitat types.
Key results The fauna assemblage, the abundance and richness of major taxa, and the abundance of a suite of individual species were found to vary significantly with time since destocking. Although some of the observed trends were consistent with previously reported responses of vertebrates to grazing, in general species richness and abundance did not increase linearly over time since destocking, with an overall decline in the first year, and an increase in the subsequent survey. Mammals remained at very low abundance and displayed a trend contrary to that for birds and reptiles, and variation was often confounded by habitat type.
Conclusions In general, where there has been a long history of pastoral land management, destocking alone may not induce short-term increases in the vertebrate fauna thought to be affected by grazing in Australian savannas.
Implications Monitoring the outcomes of conservation management activity is a critical component of understanding the success, failures and adaptation needed to maximise the costs and benefits of conservation investment. The recovery of the vertebrate fauna thought to be of conservation concern in relatively intensively used, long-grazed landscapes may be lengthy and contingent on other factors, such as periods of favourable weather, or understanding the interactive effects of herbivore removal, fire pattern and feral predators. In such landscapes, it is possible that recovery of some elements of the vertebrate fauna may not occur without deliberate interventions, such as reintroductions or intense predator control.
WHAT YOU ARE ABOUT TO READ WILL SURPRISE YOU. IT WILL MAKE YOU WISER. AND IN SOME PLACES IT WILL MAKE YOU MAD. POLICY REVIEW ASKED 13 LEADING CONSERVATIVES TO COMMENT ON SOME OF THE MOST EMOTIONAL SUBJECTS IN AMERICAN POLITICS AND SOCIETY TODAY. ABORTION. HOMOSEXUALITY. SCHOOL PRAYER. MOTHERHOOD. DIVORCE. CHILD ABUSE. WE ASKED FOR PRACTICAL ADVICE ABOUT HOW TO DEAL WITH DEFIANT TEENAGERS AND PREGNANT, UNMARRIED WOMEN. AND WE ASKED ABOUT THE PROPER ROLE OF GOVERNMENT IN REGULATING MORAL CONDUCT. THE PARTICIPANTS REFLECT THE DIVERSITY OF CONSERVATIVE THOUGHT-FROM NEOCONSERVATIVE TO NEW RIGHT, FROM TRADITIONALIST TO LIBERATRIAN. AND THEIR ANSWERS REVEAL ASTONISHING DIFFERENCES EVEN WITHIN THESE CATEGORIES, ON ISSUES SUCH AS ABORTION, HOMOSEXUALITY, AND WHETHER MOTHERS OF YOUNG CHILDREN SHOULD WORK. THE ONLY QUESTION ON WHICH ALL PARTICIPANTS SEEM TO AGREE IS ON HOW TO INTERPRET THE ESTABLISHMENT CLAUSE OF THE FIRST AMENDMENT: JUST WHAT IT SAYS.
Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted routine hospital services globally. This study estimated the total number of adult elective operations that would be cancelled worldwide during the 12 weeks of peak disruption due to COVID-19. Methods: A global expert response study was conducted to elicit projections for the proportion of elective surgery that would be cancelled or postponed during the 12 weeks of peak disruption. A Bayesian β-regression model was used to estimate 12-week cancellation rates for 190 countries. Elective surgical case-mix data, stratified by specialty and indication (surgery for cancer versus benign disease), were determined. This case mix was applied to country-level surgical volumes. The 12-week cancellation rates were then applied to these figures to calculate the total number of cancelled operations. Results: The best estimate was that 28 404 603 operations would be cancelled or postponed during the peak 12 weeks of disruption due to COVID-19 (2 367 050 operations per week). Most would be operations for benign disease (90·2 per cent, 25 638 922 of 28 404 603). The overall 12-week cancellation rate would be 72·3 per cent. Globally, 81·7 per cent of operations for benign conditions (25 638 922 of 31 378 062), 37·7 per cent of cancer operations (2 324 070 of 6 162 311) and 25·4 per cent of elective caesarean sections (441 611 of 1 735 483) would be cancelled or postponed. If countries increased their normal surgical volume by 20 per cent after the pandemic, it would take a median of 45 weeks to clear the backlog of operations resulting from COVID-19 disruption. Conclusion: A very large number of operations will be cancelled or postponed owing to disruption caused by COVID-19. Governments should mitigate against this major burden on patients by developing recovery plans and implementing strategies to restore surgical activity safely.