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Understanding attention dynamics on social media during pandemics could help governments minimize the effects. We focus on how COVID-19 has influenced the attention dynamics on the biggest Chinese microblogging website Sina Weibo during the first four months of the pandemic. We study the real-time Hot Search List (HSL), which provides the ranking of the most popular 50 hashtags based on the amount of Sina Weibo searches. We show how the specific events, measures and developments during the epidemic affected the emergence of different kinds of hashtags and the ranking on the HSL. A significant increase of COVID-19 related hashtags started to occur on HSL around January 20, 2020, when the transmission of the disease between humans was announced. Then very rapidly a situation was reached where COVID-related hashtags occupied 30–70% of the HSL, however, with changing content. We give an analysis of how the hashtag topics changed during the investigated time span and conclude that there are three periods separated by February 12 and March 12. In period 1, we see strong topical correlations and clustering of hashtags; in period 2, the correlations are weakened, without clustering pattern; in period 3, we see a potential of clustering while not as strong as in period 1. We further explore the dynamics of HSL by measuring the ranking dynamics and the lifetimes of hashtags on the list. This way we can obtain information about the decay of attention, which is important for decisions about the temporal placement of governmental measures to achieve permanent awareness. Furthermore, our observations indicate abnormally higher rank diversity in the top 15 ranks on HSL due to the COVID-19 related hashtags, revealing the possibility of algorithmic intervention from the platform provider. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1140/epjds/s13688-021-00263-0.

Online social networks have increasing influence on our society, they may play decisive roles in politics and can be crucial for the fate of companies. Such services compete with each other and some may even break down rapidly. Using social network datasets we show the main factors leading to such a dramatic collapse. At early stage mostly the loosely bound users disappear, later collective effects play the main role leading to cascading failures. We present a theory based on a generalised threshold model to explain the findings and show how the collapse time can be estimated in advance using the dynamics of the churning users. Our results shed light to possible mechanisms of instabilities in other competing social processes.

We analyse the dependence of stock return cross-correlations on the
sampling frequency of the data known as the Epps effect: For high
resolution data the cross-correlations are significantly smaller than
their asymptotic value as observed on daily data. The former
description implies that changing trading frequency should alter the
characteristic time of the phenomenon. This is not true for the
empirical data: The Epps curves do not scale with market activity. The
latter result indicates that the time scale of the phenomenon is
connected to the reaction time of market participants (this we denote
as human time scale), independent of market activity. In this paper
we give a new description of the Epps effect through the decomposition
of cross-correlations. After testing our method on a model of
generated random walk price changes we justify our analytical results
by fitting the Epps curves of real world data.

3. Modeling minorities in social networks -- 4. Measuring voting power and behavior in liquid democracy -- 5. Conclusions -- Science of success: An introduction -- 1. Introduction -- 2. Performance and success -- 2.1. Performance drives success -- 2.2. Perfomance is bounded -- 3. Success as a collective phenomenon -- 3.1. Success or recognition is unbounded -- 3.2. Success breeds success -- 3.3. Quality times previous success determines future success -- 4. Science of science -- 4.1. Quantifying long-term scientific impact -- 4.2. The Q-model -- 4.3. Credit is based on perception, not performance

Interactions between humans give rise to complex social networks that are characterized by heterogeneous degree distribution, weight-topology relation, overlapping community structure, and dynamics of links. Understanding these characteristics of social networks is the primary goal of their research as they constitute scaffolds for various emergent social phenomena from disease spreading to political movements. An appropriate tool for studying them is agent-based modeling, in which nodes, representing individuals, make decisions about creating and deleting links, thus yielding various macroscopic behavioral patterns. Here we focus on studying a generalization of the weighted social network model, being one of the most fundamental agent-based models for describing the formation of social ties and social networks. This generalized weighted social network (GWSN) model incorporates triadic closure, homophilic interactions, and various link termination mechanisms, which have been studied separately in the previous works. Accordingly, the GWSN model has an increased number of input parameters and the model behavior gets excessively complex, making it challenging to clarify the model behavior. We have executed massive simulations with a supercomputer and used the results as the training data for deep neural networks to conduct regression analysis for predicting the properties of the generated networks from the input parameters. The obtained regression model was also used for global sensitivity analysis to identify which parameters are influential or insignificant. We believe that this methodology is applicable for a large class of complex network models, thus opening the way for more realistic quantitative agent-based modeling.

Funding Information: YM, H-HJ, JT, and JK are thankful for the hospitality of Aalto University. This research used computational resources of the supercomputer Fugaku provided by the RIKEN Center for Computational Science. Publisher Copyright: © Copyright © 2021 Murase, Jo, Török, Kertész and Kaski. ; Interactions between humans give rise to complex social networks that are characterized by heterogeneous degree distribution, weight-topology relation, overlapping community structure, and dynamics of links. Understanding these characteristics of social networks is the primary goal of their research as they constitute scaffolds for various emergent social phenomena from disease spreading to political movements. An appropriate tool for studying them is agent-based modeling, in which nodes, representing individuals, make decisions about creating and deleting links, thus yielding various macroscopic behavioral patterns. Here we focus on studying a generalization of the weighted social network model, being one of the most fundamental agent-based models for describing the formation of social ties and social networks. This generalized weighted social network (GWSN) model incorporates triadic closure, homophilic interactions, and various link termination mechanisms, which have been studied separately in the previousworks. Accordingly, the GWSN model has an increased number of input parameters and the model behavior gets excessively complex, making it challenging to clarify the model behavior. We have executed massive simulations with a supercomputer and used the results as the training data for deep neural networks to conduct regression analysis for predicting the properties of the generated networks from the input parameters. The obtained regression model was also used for global sensitivity analysis to identify which parameters are influential or insignificant. We believe that this methodology is applicable for a large class of complex network models, thus opening the way for more realistic quantitative agent-based modeling. ; Peer reviewed

Abstract
To estimate the reaction of economies to political interventions or external disturbances, input–output (IO) tables—constructed by aggregating data into industrial sectors—are extensively used. However, economic growth, robustness, and resilience crucially depend on the detailed structure of nonaggregated firm-level production networks (FPNs). Due to nonavailability of data, little is known about how much aggregated sector-based and detailed firm-level-based model predictions differ. Using a nearly complete nationwide FPN, containing 243,399 Hungarian firms with 1,104,141 supplier–buyer relations, we self-consistently compare production losses on the aggregated industry-level production network (IPN) and the granular FPN. For this, we model the propagation of shocks of the same size on both, the IPN and FPN, where the latter captures relevant heterogeneities within industries. In a COVID-19 inspired scenario, we model the shock based on detailed firm-level data during the early pandemic. We find that using IPNs instead of FPNs leads to an underestimation of economic losses of up to 37%, demonstrating a natural limitation of industry-level IO models in predicting economic outcomes. We ascribe the large discrepancy to the significant heterogeneity of firms within industries: we find that firms within one sector only sell 23.5% to and buy 19.3% from the same industries on average, emphasizing the strong limitations of industrial sectors for representing the firms they include. Similar error levels are expected when estimating economic growth, CO2 emissions, and the impact of policy interventions with industry-level IO models. Granular data are key for reasonable predictions of dynamical economic systems.

FuturICT foundations are social science, complex systems science, and ICT. The main concerns and challenges in the science of complex systems in the context of FuturICT are laid out in this paper with special emphasis on the Complex Systems route to Social Sciences. This include complex systems having: many heterogeneous interacting parts; multiple scales; complicated transition laws; unexpected or unpredicted emergence; sensitive dependence on initial conditions; path-dependent dynamics; networked hierarchical connectivities; interaction of autonomous agents; self-organisation; non-equilibrium dynamics; combinatorial explosion; adaptivity to changing environments; co-evolving subsystems; ill-defined boundaries; and multilevel dynamics. In this context, science is seen as the process of abstracting the dynamics of systems from data. This presents many challenges including: data gathering by large-scale experiment, participatory sensing and social computation, managing huge distributed dynamic and heterogeneous databases; moving from data to dynamical models, going beyond correlations to cause-effect relationships, understanding the relationship between simple and comprehensive models with appropriate choices of variables, ensemble modeling and data assimilation, modeling systems of systems of systems with many levels between micro and macro; and formulating new approaches to prediction, forecasting, and risk, especially in systems that can reflect on and change their behaviour in response to predictions, and systems whose apparently predictable behaviour is disrupted by apparently unpredictable rare or extreme events. These challenges are part of the FuturICT agenda. © The Author(s) 2012. ; The publication of this work was partially supported by the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) under grant agreement No. 284709, a Coordina- tionandSupportActionintheInformationandCommunicationTechnologiesactivityarea ('FuturICT' FET Flagship Pilot Project). MSM acknowledges also financial support for research on Complex Systems from MINECO FIS2007-6032. ; Peer Reviewed