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The Bear River is driven by a highly variable, snow-driven montane ecosystem and flows through a drought-prone arid region of the western United States. It traverses three states, is diverted to store water in an ecologically unique natural lake, Bear Lake, and empties into the Great Salt Lake at the Bear River Migratory Bird Refuge. People in the Bear River Basin have come to anticipate droughts, building a legal, institutional, and engineered infrastructure to adapt to the watershed's hydrologic realities and historical legacies. Their ways of understanding linked vulnerabilities has led to what might appear as paradoxical outcomes: farmers with the most legally secure water rights are the most vulnerable to severe drought; managers at the federal Bear River Migratory Bird Refuge engage in wetland farming and make unlikely political alliances; and, increased agricultural irrigation efficiency in the Basin actually threatens the water supply of some wetlands. The rationality of locality is the key to understanding how people in the Bear River Basin have increased their adaptive capacity to droughts by recognizing their interdependencies. As the effects of climate change unfold, understanding social-ecological system linkages will be important for guiding future adaptations and enhancing resilience in ways that appropriately integrate localized ecosystem capacity and human needs.

More than 5 million people live near Lake Urmia in northwestern Iran, one of the world's largest hypersaline lakes. Over the past two decades, the lake has lost 95% of its volume, lake level has dropped more than 7 m, and lake restoration has gained widespread interest. The government seeks a uniform "ecological" target lake level of 1274.1 m above sea level to lower salinity below 240 gL-1 and recover brine shrimp (Artemia spp.) and flamingos (Phoenicopterus roseus). We have synthesized over 40 years of available data, defined 8 ecosystem services for human health, water quality, ecology, recreation, and economy (Box 1), and related each service to lake levels with uncertainties (Box 2).