Suchergebnisse

OPEC is undergoing a belated honeymoon period on its fiftieth anniversary. This is reflected in the success of maintaining a high price range ($75–85 per barrel), or even higher, as well as the professional management of the Organization, in contrast to the previous periods of flagrant disrespect of production policies and quotas. Basically, there exists today a clear understanding and unanimous agreement among the member states, despite political differences among them, to implement the main objective of the Organization – the achievement of a reasonable and just return for the export of hydrocarbons.

Most analyses of oil supply and demand include a statement about the geopolitics of the Middle East and the possibility of supply disruption from the region. There is, therefore, an assumed political premium to the oil price. While it is true that the Middle East has been in a constant state of trouble and mayhem as far back as one can remember, and events since September 11 indicate that we are in for major confrontations and changes in the long haul, the fact of the matter is that the actual impact on the security of supply has been minimal. One can even venture to say that the conscious commitment to deliver the oil to world markets is stronger now than it has ever been.

The discovery of natural gas in the Eastern Mediterranean presents opportunities to exploit a clean domestic energy resource and to reduce imports. However, it also resurrects chronic regional political conflicts. In the case of the Gaza Strip, the problem is that of Israeli occupation of Palestinian territory, and the attempt to maintain influence and pressure over the occupied Palestinian entity.

Henry Siegman asks whether the next US President can rescue a two-state solution to the Israel–Palestine conflict; Lakhdar Brahimi discusses Iran – war or peace in the Middle East?; Eric Rouleau assesses the Iranian nuclear threat; Walid Khadduri looks at concerns over the future of Iraq and regional implications.