Suchergebnisse

"Recent empirical analysis has found nonlinearities to be important in understanding aggregated investment. Using an equilibrium business cycle model, we search for aggregate nonlinearities arising from the introduction of nonconvex capital adjustment costs.We find that, while such costs lead to nontrivial nonlinearities in aggregate investment demand, equilibrium investment is effectively unchanged.Our finding, based on a model in which aggregate fluctuations arise through exogenous changes in total factor productivity, is robust to the introduction of shocks to the relative price of investment goods"--Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis web site

We develop an equilibrium business cycle model where nonconvex delivery costs lead firms to follow (S, s) inventory policies. Calibrated to postwar US data, the model reproduces two-thirds of the cyclical variability of inventory investment. Moreover, it delivers strongly procyclical inventory investment, greater volatility in production than sales, and a countercyclical inventory-to-sales ratio. Our model challenges several prominent claims involving inventories, including the widely held belief that they amplify aggregate fluctuations. Despite the comovement between inventory investment and final sales, GDP volatility is essentially unaltered by inventory accumulation, because procyclical inventory investment diverts resources from final production, thereby dampening fluctuations in sales. (JEL E22, E32).