Međuzavisnost geopolitičke teorije i prakse
In: Vojno delo, Band 70, Heft 4, S. 9-24
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In: Vojno delo, Band 70, Heft 4, S. 9-24
In: Vojno delo, Band 68, Heft 3, S. 29-58
In: Vojno delo, Band 67, Heft 4, S. 7-23
In: Vojno delo, Band 66, Heft 1, S. 31-50
In: Nacionalni interes, Band 19, Heft 1, S. 81-98
Shanghai Cooperation Organization was founded in 2001 under a Declaration signed by the leaders of five independent states from the territory of former Soviet Union and the President of the People's Republic of China. The Charter, adopted by the organization's member states as their basic document, emphasizes their commitment to strengthen their mutual trust and good-neighborliness and friendly cooperation; to keep and maintain the peace, stability and security of the region; as well as to fight together against all forms of terrorism, separatism and extremism. Although there are significant differences between the member states in almost all matters of social and governmental organization, over its ten-year existence the Shanghai Cooperation Organization has proved its vitality and has become respectable entity not only of the regional but also of international cooperation on the whole. In recent years all main actors of contemporary international relations have tried to establish and develop the cooperation with this important intergovernmental association. What the further development of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization will be like and where the organization will be positioned within the future world order is difficult to be definitely determined. Apart from the role of the two leading states of this organization - Russia and China, its eventual position will be greatly influenced by other major international factors as well, which, in the era of unstable energy and other forms of security, find the area of Central Asia ever more significant and attractive.
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Shanghai Cooperation Organization was founded in 2001 under a Declaration signed by the leaders of five independent states from the territory of former Soviet Union and the President of the People's Republic of China. The Charter, adopted by the organization's member states as their basic document, emphasizes their commitment to strengthen their mutual trust and good-neighborliness and friendly cooperation; to keep and maintain the peace, stability and security of the region; as well as to fight together against all forms of terrorism, separatism and extremism. Although there are significant differences between the member states in almost all matters of social and governmental organization, over its ten-year existence the Shanghai Cooperation Organization has proved its vitality and has become respectable entity not only of the regional but also of international cooperation on the whole. In recent years all main actors of contemporary international relations have tried to establish and develop the cooperation with this important intergovernmental association. What the further development of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization will be like and where the organization will be positioned within the future world order is difficult to be definitely determined. Apart from the role of the two leading states of this organization - Russia and China, its eventual position will be greatly influenced by other major international factors as well, which, in the era of unstable energy and other forms of security, find the area of Central Asia ever more significant and attractive. ; Šangajska organizacija za saradnju formirana je 2001. godine, Deklaracijom koju su potpisali predsednici pet samostalnih država sa prostora bivšeg sovjetskog saveza i predsednik Narodne Republike Kine. Prema Povelji, koju su članice ove organizacije usvojile kao svoj osnovni dokument, istaknuta je njihova opredeljenost da učvršćuju međusobno poverenje i dobrosusedsku saradnju, da održavaju i jačaju mir, stabilnost i bezbednost u regionu, kao i da se zajednički bore protiv terorizma, separatizma i ekstremizma svih oblika. Iako među državama članicama postoje značajne razlike po skoro svim pitanjima društvenog i državnog ustrojstva, Šangajska organizacija je za deset godina postojanja dokazala svoju vitalnost i postala respektivni subjekt, ne samo regionalne, već i međunarodne saradnje u celini. Poslednjih godina svi glavni faktori savremenih međunarodnih odnosa nastoje da uspostave i razvijaju saradnju sa ovom značajnom međudržavnom asocijacijom. Kakav će biti dalji razvoj Šangajske organizacije za saradnju i gde će se ona pozicionirati u okviru budućeg svetskog poretka, teško je jednoznačno odrediti. Pored uloge vodećih zemalja ove organizacije - Rusije i Kine, na krajnji ishod tog njenog položaja umnogome će uticati i drugi značajni međunarodni faktori kojima, u eri nestabilne energetske i drugih oblika bezbednosti, prostor Centralne Azije postaje sve značajniji i primamljiviji.
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In: Vojno delo, Band 67, Heft 3, S. 70-81
In the last twenty years the world has undergone serious changes, unfortunately not in positive direction. The collapse of the bipolar system and the establishment of one bloc hegemony - NATO headed by the USA, has not only failed to establish more stable and secure international relations, but, on the contrary, it has corresponded with the greatest insecurity and uncertainty of the mankind ever since World War II till the present day. After the 'counter-balance' disappeared, there has been open political, economic, even direct military, interference by the Alliance states in the sovereignty of many countries. Consequently, the world's conflicting potential has largely increased. Apart from the threats present from earlier, the contemporary world is faced with a series of new, formerly unknown or marginal, ones. The most notable among them are: uncontrolled escalation of armed conflicts; international terrorism; proliferation of nuclear and other weapons of mass destruction; expansion of drugs trafficking; illegal cross-border migrations; human trafficking and trafficking in human organs; piracy; criminalization of different areas of living; etc. The economic and financial crises have additionally warned the world of the limitedness of natural resources and, in the most serious form, posed the issue of the fight for preservation, or conquest of areas rich in raw minerals. Apart from the current courses of action in the fight for control over the natural resources, both new methods of action and new areas of contest are emerging (Arctic, Antarctic .; above and under the Earth's surface; on the sea, and under the sea bottom), over which the interests of great powers will be increasingly conflicting. Michael Klare, the author of well-known books 'Blood and Oil' and 'Resource Wars', convincingly evokes a growing hunger for resources by the picturesque title of his latest book 'Race for What's Left: Global Scramble for the World's Last Resources'. For success in this new competition in strength and skills, new strategic concepts are required. Some have already been created and preliminarily tested; others are being prepared for implementation and corrected 'on the go' based on the performance of already proved solutions; still others are being hurriedly shaped. Understandably, along with this, what actual and potential rivals do related to this, or what their activities suggest, is watched closely.
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In the last twenty years the world has undergone serious changes, unfortunately not in positive direction. The collapse of the bipolar system and the establishment of one bloc hegemony - NATO headed by the USA, has not only failed to establish more stable and secure international relations, but, on the contrary, it has corresponded with the greatest insecurity and uncertainty of the mankind ever since World War II till the present day. After the 'counter-balance' disappeared, there has been open political, economic, even direct military, interference by the Alliance states in the sovereignty of many countries. Consequently, the world's conflicting potential has largely increased. Apart from the threats present from earlier, the contemporary world is faced with a series of new, formerly unknown or marginal, ones. The most notable among them are: uncontrolled escalation of armed conflicts; international terrorism; proliferation of nuclear and other weapons of mass destruction; expansion of drugs trafficking; illegal cross-border migrations; human trafficking and trafficking in human organs; piracy; criminalization of different areas of living; etc. The economic and financial crises have additionally warned the world of the limitedness of natural resources and, in the most serious form, posed the issue of the fight for preservation, or conquest of areas rich in raw minerals. Apart from the current courses of action in the fight for control over the natural resources, both new methods of action and new areas of contest are emerging (Arctic, Antarctic .; above and under the Earth's surface; on the sea, and under the sea bottom), over which the interests of great powers will be increasingly conflicting. Michael Klare, the author of well-known books 'Blood and Oil' and 'Resource Wars', convincingly evokes a growing hunger for resources by the picturesque title of his latest book 'Race for What's Left: Global Scramble for the World's Last Resources'. For success in this new competition in strength and skills, new strategic concepts are required. Some have already been created and preliminarily tested; others are being prepared for implementation and corrected 'on the go' based on the performance of already proved solutions; still others are being hurriedly shaped. Understandably, along with this, what actual and potential rivals do related to this, or what their activities suggest, is watched closely. ; Za poslednjih 20 godina svet se ozbiljno promenio i to, nažalost, ne u pozitivnom smeru. Rušenje bipolarnog sistema i uspostavljanje hegemonije jednog bloka - NATO na čelu sa SAD, ne samo da nije dovelo do uspostavljanja stabilnijih i bezbednijih međunarodnih odnosa, već je naprotiv, korespondiralo sa najvećom nesigurnošću i neizvesnošću ljudskog roda od vremena Drugog svetskog rata do danas. Posle nestanka 'kontrabalansa', došlo je do otvorenog političkog, ekonomskog, pa i direktnog vojnog mešanja zemalja Alijanse u suverenitet mnogih zemalja. Kao rezultat ovakvog stanja, konfliktni potencijal u svetu znatno se povećao. Pored od ranije prisutnih pretnji, savremeni svet suočava se sa nizom novih, nekada nepoznatim ili marginalnim. Među njima su najznačajnije: nekontrolisana eskalacija oružanih konflikata; međunarodni terorizam; rasprostiranje atomskog i drugog naoružanja za masovno uništavanje; bujanje trgovine narkoticima; nelegalne preko-granične migracije; trgovina ljudima i ljudskim organima; piratstvo; kriminalizacija različitih sfera života itd. Ekonomska i finansijska kriza dodatno su opomenule svet na limitiranost prirodnih resursa i, u najozbiljnijoj formi, postavile problem borbe za očuvanje, odnosno osvajanje prostora bogatih sirovinama. U borbi za kontrolu nad prirodnim resursima, pored dosadašnjih, pojavljuju se, kako nove metode delovanja, tako i nova područja nadmetanja (Arktik, Antarktik, .; na zemlji i ispod zemljine površine; na moru i ispod morskog dna), oko kojih će se u narednom periodu sve otvorenije sukobljavati interesi vodećih svetskih sila. Narastajuću glad za resursima, Majk Kler (Michael Klare), autor dobro poznatih dela 'Krv i nafta' (Blood and Oil) i 'Ratovi zbor resursa' (Resource Wars), uverljivo dočarava slikovitim nazivom svoje najnovije knjige 'Trka za onim što je preostalo' (Race for what's Left: Global Scramble for the World's Last Resources). Za uspešnost u tom novom odmeravanju snaga i umešnosti neophodni su novi strategijski koncepti. Neki su već kreirani i preliminarno testirani; drugi se pripremaju za implementaciju i u 'hodu' koriguju na osnovu učinka već oprobanih rešenja; treći se ubrzano formiraju. Pri tome se, razumljivo, pomno prati ono što u vezi s tim čine, odnosno što svojim delovanjem nagoveštavaju aktuelni i potencijalni rivali.
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The world, in terms of globalization did not become more stable and predictable. Its main characteristics today are: turbulence, insecurity, and growth potential for conflicts. The most important expression of compression of clamps of turbulence becomes events from 2011. Years, in many countries of North Africa and the Middle East, called the ''Arab revolutions''. For some, these events are coincidental and spontaneous protest ''dreamers of democracy'', while for others it is a result of the planned implementation of projects for a global reorganization of the world. Besides the difference in the value perception of ''colored revolutions'', among theorists there is no agreement even on issues of their target orientation and of their relationship to democracy, social reasonableness, and especially of compatibility of goals and the methods for their realizations. ; Svet, u uslovima globalizacije nije postao stabilniji i predvidiviji. Njegove glavne karakteristike danas su: turbulentnost, nesigurnost i porast konfliktnog potencijala. Najvažniji izraz sažimanja stega turbulentnosti postali su događaji iz 2011. godine, koji su se dešavali u nizu zemalja Severne Afrike i Bliskog istoka, nazvani ''arapske revolucije''. Za neke, ti događaji su slučajnost i stihijni protest ''sanjara o demokratiji'', dok su za druge - posledica planske realizacije konkretnih projekata za globalno preuređenje sveta. Pored razlika u vrednosnom poimanju ''šarenih revolucija'', među teoretičarima ne postoji saglasnost ni po pitanjima njihove ciljne usmerenosti, odnosa prema demokratiji, socijalne opravdanosti i, naročito - saglasnosti postavljenih ciljeva i sredstava kojima se oni dostižu.
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