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PurposeThis study presents the applicability of a model-based approach for loyalty program forecasting using smartphone app in the digital strategy of the retail industry.Design/methodology/approachThe authors develop a dynamic model with the cyclical structure of customer segments through customer experience. They use time-series data on the number of members of the loyalty program, "Seven Mile Program" and confirm the validity of the approximate calculation of customer segment share, customer segment sales share and aggregate sales performance. The authors present three medium-term forecast scenarios after the launch of a smartphone payment service linked with the loyalty program.FindingsThe sum of the two customer segment shares for forecasting (the sum of the quasi-excellent and excellent customer ratios) is about 30% in each scenario, consistent with an essential customer loyalty (true loyalty) share obtained in the existing empirical study.Research limitations/implicationsDigital strategy in the retail industry should focus more on estimating and forecasting average amounts of customer segments and the number of aggregated customers through the digitalization on the customer side than on individual customer journeys and responses.Practical implicationsMulti-scenario evaluation through simulation of dynamic models from a systemic view can be used for decision-making in retailing digital strategies.Originality/valueThis study builds a model that integrates the cyclicality of customer segment transition through customer experiences into a loyalty matrix framework, which is a method that has previously been used in the hospitality industry.

Purpose
– The purpose of this paper is to examine the respective effects of advertising, word of mouth (operationalized as "tweets" on Twitter), and serialization on sales of console game series in Japan.


Design/methodology/approach
– To do this, the author classified console game series into four categories on the basis of their sales, identified a singular case that corresponds to each category, and presented a performance calculation model that approximates variation in sales for the first and second titles of each series.


Findings
– Coupled with the results generated by the performance models a comparison of each game series showed that although word-of-mouth and backward serialization may influence sales performance for the first title in a console game series, sales of the second title in the series were most heavily influenced by forward serialization and advertising. The author further found that word-of-mouth via social networks was unlikely to affect the sales performance of a series' second title.


Research limitations/implications
– The sales of first title video game console series permit the forecasting and evaluation of the sales' second title performance through the performance calculation model incorporating the advertising, word-of-mouth, and serialization effect and vice versa.


Originality/value
– Taken together, these results demonstrate that the affordances of social networking can be used to improve sales performance for the first title in a series, and the use of backward serialization for subsequent titles could incite the purchase of over a million copies of the game(s).

ICSDEC 2016 – Integrating Data Science, Construction and Sustainability ; Road authorities in developing countries recognize the need to maintain unpaved roads in rural areas using local resource based approaches rather than by attempting to meet international standards. The authors have developed a novel road maintenance technique, that we call "Do-nou". Since 2006, we have demonstrated this technique in Asia, the Pacific, Africa and Latin America. Do-nou can be classified as a geotextile used to reinforce the shear strength of soil using only plastic crop bags, which are widely available in developing countries, and unskilled local labor. After some modification, the technique was also applied to the maintenance of unpaved roads on the clayey ground and to the construction of retaining walls for road embankment in flood-prone areas. It was demonstrated that it was practical for the communities to maintain unpaved roads in rural areas when equipped with the Do-nou technique, thereby enhancing community resilience. The Kenyan Government has recognized the Do-nou technique in its road strategy plan and has invested in training its youth on this technique for employment promotion.