Blood Parasite Load as an Early Marker to Predict Treatment Response in Visceral Leishmaniasis in Eastern Africa
Background: To expedite the development of new oral treatment regimens for visceral leishmaniasis (VL), there is a need for early markers to evaluate treatment response and predict long-term outcomes. Methods: Data from 3 clinical trials were combined in this study, in which Eastern African VL patients received various antileishmanial therapies. Leishmania kinetoplast DNA was quantified in whole blood with real-time quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) before, during, and up to 6 months after treatment. The predictive performance of pharmacodynamic parameters for clinical relapse was evaluated using receiver-operating characteristic curves. Clinical trial simulations were performed to determine the power associated with the use of blood parasite load as a surrogate endpoint to predict clinical outcome at 6 months. Results: The absolute parasite density on day 56 after start of treatment was found to be a highly sensitive predictor of relapse within 6 months of follow-up at a cutoff of 20 parasites/mL (area under the curve 0.92, specificity 0.91, sensitivity 0.89). Blood parasite loads correlated well with tissue parasite loads (ρ = 0.80) and with microscopy gradings of bone marrow and spleen aspirate smears. Clinical trial simulations indicated a > 80% power to detect a difference in cure rate between treatment regimens if this difference was high (> 50%) and when minimally 30 patients were included per regimen. Conclusions: Blood Leishmania parasite load determined by qPCR is a promising early biomarker to predict relapse in VL patients. Once optimized, it might be useful in dose finding studies of new chemical entities. ; This work was supported by the European Union Seventh Framework Programme Africoleish (grant number 305178); the World Health Organization—Special Programme for Research and Training in Tropical Diseases (WHO-TDR); the French Development Agency, France (grant number CZZ2062); UK aid, UK; the Federal Ministry of Education and Research through KfW, Germany; the Medicor Foundation, Liechtenstein; Médecins Sans Frontières, International; the Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation (SDC), Switzerland (grant number 81017718); the Dutch Ministry of Foreign Affairs (DGIS), the Netherlands (grant number PDP15CH21); the French Ministry for Europe and Foreign Affairs (MEAE), France; The Rockefeller Foundation, USA; BBVA Foundation, Spain; the European Union—AfriKADIA project of the Second European and Developing Countries Clinical Trials Partnership Programme (EDCTP2) (grant number RIA2016S1635); and ZonMw/Dutch Research Council (NWO) Veni grant (project number 91617140 to T. P. C. D.). ; Sí