Suchergebnisse

This paper asks how much employment is created by increasing goods and services exports and how the export dependence of employment has changed over time. Using the newly developed Japanese input‐output table for 1975–2006, this paper estimates the effect of exports on an industry's employment (i.e., direct effect) and the effect on other industries' employment (i.e., indirect effect). One of our major findings is that the magnitude of the indirect effect exceeded that of the direct effect over almost the entire period. This implies that more than half of the effects of exports appeared through intraindustry linkages. We also found the indirect effect of goods exports is not limited to goods industries. As a result, the increases in the export dependence of employment are not limited to major Japanese export‐oriented industries such as electrical machinery, motor vehicles, and general machinery. In identifying the potential risks of negative external shocks, it is important for policy makers to estimate how much employment is indirectly as well as directly dependent on exports. (JEL F16, F14)

AbstractThis paper examines the theoretically ambiguous relationship between the volatility of employment growth and the foreign exposure of firms. We employ unique Japanese firm‐level data during the period of 1994 to 2012. This allows us to investigate any differences in this relationship across multinational firms and trading and non‐trading firms, manufacturing and wholesale trade and intra‐firm and inter‐firm trade. One major finding is that, in manufacturing, employment volatility increases as the share of intra‐firm exports to total sales increases. In contrast, in wholesale trade, employment volatility declines as the share of intra‐firm imports to total imports increases. One possible interpretation of these results is that the transmission of foreign supply and demand shocks could be through not only manufacturing but also wholesale trade firms. Further, a higher share of intra‐firm trade could magnify foreign demand shocks in manufacturing and could mitigate foreign supply shocks in wholesale trade.RésuméMultinationales, commerce intra‐entreprise et volatilité de l'emploi. Cet article analyse le rapport en théorie ambigu entre la volatilité de la croissance de l'emploi et l'exposition des entreprises à l'étranger. Grâce à des données spécifiques recueillies au niveau des entreprises japonaises entre 1994 et 2012, nous pouvons étudier les différences relatives à cette relation pour les entreprises multinationales et les entreprises commerciales et non‐commerciales, le commerce manufacturier et le commerce de gros ainsi que le commerce intra‐entreprise et le commerce inter‐entreprise. L'une des conclusions majeures est que dans le secteur manufacturier, la volatilité de l'emploi diminue à mesure que la part des exportations intra‐entreprise augmente par rapport aux ventes totales. À l'inverse, dans le commerce de gros, la volatilité de l'emploi diminue à mesure que la part des importations intra‐entreprise augmente par rapport aux importations totales. L'une des interprétations possibles de ces résultats est que la transmission des chocs en matière d'offre et de demande étrangère ne passe pas uniquement par les entreprises du secteur manufacturier, mais également par les entreprises du commerce de gros. En outre, une plus grande part de commerce intra‐entreprise pourrait amplifier les chocs en matière de demande étrangère dans le secteur manufacturier, et pourrait atténuer les chocs en matière d'offre étrangère pour le commerce de gros.