Suchergebnisse

Massive Konsolidierungen der öffentlichen Haushalte sowie die Umsetzung von Strukturreformen sollten den südeuropäischen Ländern aus der Krise helfen. Doch neuesten Untersuchungen zufolge könnte die auferlegte strikte Austeritätspolitik im Zusammenspiel mit den niedrigen Zinsen im Euroraum den gegenteiligen Effekt ge-habt und zu einer Erhöhung der Staatsschulden sowie einer Verlangsamung der wirtschaftlichen Entwicklung geführt haben. Ein ausgewogenerer Politik-Mix aus ge-lockerten Sparmaßnahmen und Investitionsförderung sollte daher der harten Spar-politik vorgezogen werden. ; Aktualisierte und korrigierte Version vom 23. Januar 2018

This thesis presents four essays that study the determinants of private household debt and the relation between private indebtedness and macroeconomic activity. Chapter 1 shows that inequality and household debt are cointegrated of order one and therefore share a common trending relation. In Chapter 2, I demonstrate that interpersonal comparison is an important driver of short-run credit movements. Chapter 3 points out that the effects of fiscal consolidations crucially depend on the level of private indebtedness. In Chapter 4, I present a model with financial frictions that is able to replicate the empirical responses of household debt and other main macro aggregates to technology shocks and income tax cuts.

This study provides empirical evidence that the costs of austerity crucially depend on the level of private indebtedness. In particular, fiscal consolidations lead to severe contractions when implemented in high private debt states. Contrary, fiscal consolidations have no significant effect on economic activity when private debt is low. These results are robust to alternative definitions of private debt overhang, the composition of fiscal consolidations and controlling for the state of the business cycle and government debt overhang. I show that deterioration in household balance sheets is important to understand private debt-dependent effects of austerity.

This study provides empirical evidence that the costs of austerity crucially depend on the level of private indebtedness. In particular, fiscal consolidations lead to severe contractions when implemented in high private debt states. Contrary, fiscal consolidations have no significant effect on economic activity when private debt is low. These results are robust for alternative definitions of private debt overhang, the composition of fiscal consolidations and controlling for the state of the business cycle and government debt overhang. I show that deterioration in household balance sheets is important to understand private debt-dependent effects of austerity. ; In dieser Studie wird empirisch gezeigt, dass die realwirtschaftlichen Auswirkungen von Austeritätsmaßnahmen maßgeblich von dem Niveau der privaten Verschuldung abhängen. In Zeiten hoher privater Verschuldung, führen fiskalische Konsolidierungen zu einem signifikanten Rückgang der wirtschaftlichen Aktivität. Ist die private Verschuldung dagegen gering, haben Konsolidierungen keinen nennenswerten realwirtschaftlichen Effekt. Diese Ergebnisse sind robust gegenüber alternativen Definitionen von privaten Verschuldungsregimen, der Komposition fiskalischer Konsolidierungen und wenn man zusätzlich für den Konjunkturzyklus und öffentliche Verschuldung kontrolliert. Ich zeige, dass private verschuldungsabhängige Konsolidierungseffekte durch eine Verschlechterung der privaten Haushaltsbilanz erklärt werden können.

Based on a panel of OECD countries, I provide empirical evidence that the costs of austerity crucially depend on the level of private indebtedness. In particular, fiscal consolidations lead to severe contractions when implemented in high private debt states. Contrary, fiscal consolidations have no significant effect on economic activity when private debt is low. These results are robust for alternative definitions of private debt overhang, the composition of fiscal consolidations and controlling for the state of the business cycle and government debt overhang. Private debt-dependent responses are mainly driven by household debt, whereas the effects differ only slightly with the level of corporate debt. Moreover, in high private debt states austerity induces a substantial fall in house prices. Both of these latter findings indicate that deterioration in household balance sheets are important to understand private debt-dependent effects of austerity. One possible implication of this paper is that the negative effects of large-scale fiscal consolidations undertaken by Southern European countries were likely to be amplified by the high private debt burdens in these economies.

Intro -- 1 Einleitung -- 1.1 Gesellschafts- und wissenschaftspolitischer Zusammenhang -- 1.2 Zielsetzungen und generelle Fragestellungen -- 1.3 Besonderheiten -- 2 Die verwendeten Modelle -- 2.1 Das Konjunkturmodell des Rheinisch-Westfälischen Instituts für Wirtschaftsforschung (KOMO) -- 2.2 Das Econometric Model of the German Economy (EMGE) -- 3 Die Simulationsmethode / Das Forschungs-Design -- 3.1 Auswahl der Instrumentvariablen -- 3.2 Arten und Dimensionen der Impulse -- 3.3 Die Richtung der Impulse -- 3.4 Messung der Effekte -- 3.5 Dauer des Impulses und Beobachtung der Effekte -- 3.6 Auswahl der Effektvariablen -- 3.7 Vergleichbarkeit der Modellergebnisse -- 3.8 Kurz- und Langfassung der Ergebnisdarstellung -- 4 Diskussion der Ergebnisse -- 4.1 Einnahmenseitige und ausgabenseitige Multiplikatoren -- 4.1.1 Direkte Steuern und SV-Beiträge der Arbeitnehmer -- 4.1.2 Direkte Steuern und SV-Beiträge der Unternehmer -- 4.1.3 Indirekte Steuern -- 4.1.4 Staatsausgaben -- 4.1.5 Transfers -- 4.1.6 Bauinvestitionen -- 4.1.7 Subventionen -- 4.1.8 Staatskonsum -- 4.1.9 Status der These 1 -- 4.2 Partielle Entkopplung des Arbeitsmarktes von der Wirtschaft? -- 4.2.1 Langfristiger Zinssatz -- 4.2.2 Tariflöhne -- 4.2.3 Welthandel -- 4.2.4 Importpreise -- 4.2.5 Konsumentenpreise -- 4.3 Kombination der Thesen -- 4.3.1 Grafiken zur Defizitquote und zu den Multiplikatoren -- 4.3.2 Die Multiplikatoren-Tabellen auf einem Blick -- 5 Darstellung der einzelnen Simulationen -- 5.1.1 KOMO: Direkte Steuern (Arbeitnehmer) um 8,8 Mrd. € senken (s61) -- 5.1.2 EMGE: Direkte Steuern (Arbeitnehmer) um 10 Mrd. € senken (s61) -- 5.1.3 KOMO & EMGE: Direkte Steuern (Arbeitnehmer) senken (s61) -- 5.2.1 KOMO: Direkte Steuern (Unternehmen) um 8,8 Mrd. € senken (s62) -- 5.2.2 EMGE: Direkte Steuern (Unternehmen) um 10 Mrd. € senken (s62).

The paper presents empirical evidence on the international effects of US fiscal policy from structural vector autoregressions identified through external instruments in a panel setting for the G7 countries. An exogenous increase in US government spending is estimated to produce sizeable positive responses of output and consumption in the rest of the G7 countries, both about half as large as their domestic US counterparts, while strongly depreciating the US terms of trade and lowering short-run real interest rates. Moreover, fiscal shocks are estimated to have a strongly positive impact on hourly labor productivity in the private sector. We solve a two-country New Keynesian model in closed form and show that a low cost elasticity of varying technology utilization can simultaneously explain the positive productivity, consumption and international spillover effects as well as the real depreciation resulting from expansionary US government spending shocks.

We present evidence on the open economy consequences of US fiscal policy shocks identified through proxy-instrumental variables. Tax shocks and government spending shocks that raise the government budget deficit lead to persistent current account deficits. In particular, the negative response of the current account to exogenous tax reductions through a surge in the demand for imports is among the strongest and most precisely estimated effects. Moreover, we find that the reduction of the current account is amplified when the tax reduction is due to lower personal income taxes and when the government increases its consumption expenditures. Historically, a much larger share of current account dynamics has been due to tax shocks than to government spending shocks.

We present evidence on the open economy consequences of US fiscal policy shocks identified through proxy-instrumental variables. Tax shocks and government spending shocks that raise the government budget deficit lead to persistent current account deficits. In particular, the negative response of the current account to exogenous tax reductions through a surge in the demand for imports is among the strongest and most precisely estimated effects. Moreover, we find that the reduction of the current account is amplified when the tax reduction is due to lower personal income taxes and when the government increases its consumption expenditures. Historically, a much larger share of current account dynamics has been due to tax shocks than to government spending shocks.

We estimate the effect of government spending shocks on the US economy with a time-varying parameter vector autoregression. The recent Great Recession period appears to be characterized by uniquely large impulse responses of output to fiscal shocks. Moreover, the particularity of this period is underlined by highly unusual responses of several other variables. The pattern of fiscal shock responses neither completely fits the predictions of the New Keynesian model of an economy subject to the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates, nor does it suggest regular variation of fiscal policy effects depending on the state of the business cycle. Rather, the Great Recession period seems special in that government spending shocks had a strongly negative effect on the spread between corporate and government bond yields and a strongly positive effect on consumer confidence and private consumption spending.