Suchergebnisse

During the past decades, China has carried out ambitious economic reforms. The reforms have resulted in strong economic growth and considerable reductions in poverty. The current situation, however, is also characterised by rising tensions within the country, caused, among others, by rural-urban and inland-coastal disparities. In this situation, rural-urban migration occupies central stage, both for the livelihoods of rural households and for the outcome of further policy reforms. In this context, trade liberalisation for a number of reasons can be expected to play an important role for the future development of poverty and inequality in the country. Against this background, the present work analyses and assesses the impacts of further trade liberalisation efforts on a rural community in south-western China. Recognising the importance of these issues, emphasis is put on poverty, inequality and rural-urban labour migration. Subject of the analysis is a village located in one of the less developed counties of Guizhou province. Thereby, this village level case study aims not only at shedding light on the impacts of future trade reforms on this particular village, but also has the objective of providing more general insights into the mechanisms which are at work when trade policies are brought down to a local level. The study seeks to promote an enhanced understanding of relevant processes in similar settings, allowing for improved assessments in the field of development oriented trade policy analysis. The objectives of the study are achieved by the application of a village computable general equilibrium model embedded into a macro-microsimulation framework. In this framework, aggregate results from a national level CGE study of unilateral trade liberalisation in China are administered as a policy shock to the village model, which offers a highly disaggregated picture of the village economy and allows for a detailed analysis of the impacts of the reform. The village model which is a CGE representation of the village ...

In face of the global food crisis of 2007–2008, severe concerns arose about how developing countries would be affected by the extreme short-term fluctuations in international commodity prices. We examine the effects of the crisis on Bolivia, one of the poorest countries of the Americas. We focus on the effectiveness of the domestic policy interventions in preventing spillovers of the development of international food prices to domestic markets. Using a cointegration model, we study price interdependencies of wheat flour, sunflower oil and poultry. The analysis suggests that the policy measures taken had little effect on food security during the food crisis. Throughout the entire period, perfect price transmission between the Bolivian poultry and sunflower oil markets and the respective international reference markets existed. Bolivian prices were determined by international prices and the policy interventions in the markets of these two commodities were not found to have had an effect. The government's large-scale wheat flour imports did not shield Bolivian consumers from the shocks of international prices. ; peerReviewed

This work was undertaken as part of the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), which is a strategic partnership of CGIAR and Future Earth. CCAFS is carried out with support from CGIAR Fund Donors and through bilateral funding agreements. This research has received funding from the European Union's FP7 Project FoodSecure (grant agreement no. 290693), the European Union's Horizon 2020 project CDLINKS (grant agreement no. 642147), and with technical support from the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD). The views expressed in the document cannot be taken to reflect the official opinions of CGIAR, Future Earth, or donors. The contributions of PS, MH, and JFS contributes to the Belmont Forum/FACCE-JPI funded DEVIL project (NE/M021327/1) and to UGRASS (NE/M016900/1). FK acknowledges the support from IIASA's Tropical Futures Initiative (TFI) and the GCP's Managing Global Negative Emissions Technologies (MaGNET) program (www.cger.nies.go.jp/gcp/magnet.html). ; Peer reviewed ; Publisher PDF

The International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT) was developed at IFPRI at the beginning of the 1990s to address a lack of long-term vision and consensus among policy-makers and researchers about the actions that are necessary to feed the world in the future, reduce poverty, and protect the natural resource base. In 1993, these same long-term global concerns launched the 2020 Vision for Food, Agriculture, and the Environment Initiative which created the opportunity for further development of the IMPACT model. In 1995 the first results using IMPACT were published as a 2020 Vision discussion paper: Global Food Projections to 2020: Implications for Investment (Rosegrant et al. 1995) in which the effects of population, investment, and trade scenarios on food security and nutrition status, especially in developing countries, were analyzed. IMPACT continues to serve as the basis for research examining the linkage between the production of key food commodities and food demand and security at the national level in the context of scenarios of future change. Studies focus on regional issues, commodity-level analyses, and cross-cutting thematic issues. IMPACT is also embedded in a variety of major global assessments to complement interdisciplinary, scenario-based work on the future of food supply and demand. The first comprehensive set of results for IMPACT were published in the book Global Food Projections to 2020 (Rosegrant et al. 2001). These projections—which were presented in 2001 at the IFPRI-sponsored conference in Bonn entitled: Sustainable Food Security for All by 2020—are presented with details on the demand system and other underlying data used in the projections work, and cover both global and regionally-focused projections. A complete list of the research published using the IMPACT modeling framework is provided in Appendix 1, including reports for international organizations, such as the World Bank, the Asian Development Bank, the FAO, and national governments. NOTE: The 2008 version is superceded by this 2012 version, and the 2008 version is retained for archival purposes and researching using this model should use the documentation from 2012. ; Non-PR ; IFPRI1; GRP38; HarvestChoice ; EPTD