Suchergebnisse

India is now the fourth largest emitter of greenhouse gases (GHG) in the world with one of the highest growth-rate of emissions. As a fast-growing major economy, its future emissions trajectory is important for the long-term global goal of restricting the temperature rise to "well below 2 ℃", compared to pre-industrial levels. In India, emissions from methane (CH4 ) and nitrous oxide (N2O) account for about a quarter of all greenhouse gas emissions. The agriculture sector contributes to over 70% of these non-CO2 emissions through activities like rice cultivation, livestock rearing (enteric fermentation and manure management) and application of nitrogen fertilizers. On the other hand, the agriculture sector employs two-third of Indian work force. Around 86% farmers fall in the marginal and small (less than 2 hectares) land-holding category and collectively own about 45% of the total agricultural area and around 80% of total cattle. Considering the socio-economic context, reducing emissions from Indian agricultural sector would be a challenge. The subsistence farming, fragmented production and political economy constraints make it difficult to implement the technological and structural interventions to mitigate the non-CO2 emissions. If India is to achieve net-zero GHG emissions in the latter half of the century, mitigation strategies for the agriculture sector need to balance the climate and sustainable development goals. In this research, we focus on methane and nitrous oxide emissions from the Indian agricultural activities. Our analysis uses the GAINS model which has been widely applied for assessing the mitigation strategies for non-CO2 emissions and multiple air pollutants at regional and global scales. We analyse four mitigation scenarios using different combinations of activities and control measures. For the reference and sustainable policy scenarios, we compare the current policies (often lacking any controls) versus maximum feasible reductions through technological and management control measures to ...

India is now the fourth largest emitter of greenhouse gases (GHG) in the world with one of the highest growth-rate of emissions. As a fast-growing major economy, its future emissions trajectory is important for the long-term global goal of restricting the temperature rise to "well below 2 ℃", compared to pre-industrial levels. In India, emissions from methane (CH4 ) and nitrous oxide (N2O) account for about a quarter of all greenhouse gas emissions. The agriculture sector contributes to over 70% of these non-CO2 emissions through activities like rice cultivation, livestock rearing (enteric fermentation and manure management) and application of nitrogen fertilizers. On the other hand, the agriculture sector employs two-third of Indian work force. Around 86% farmers fall in the marginal and small (less than 2 hectares) land-holding category and collectively own about 45% of the total agricultural area and around 80% of total cattle. Considering the socio-economic context, reducing emissions from Indian agricultural sector would be a challenge. The subsistence farming, fragmented production and political economy constraints make it difficult to implement the technological and structural interventions to mitigate the non-CO2 emissions. If India is to achieve net-zero GHG emissions in the latter half of the century, mitigation strategies for the agriculture sector need to balance the climate and sustainable development goals. In this research, we focus on methane and nitrous oxide emissions from the Indian agricultural activities. Our analysis uses the GAINS model which has been widely applied for assessing the mitigation strategies for non-CO2 emissions and multiple air pollutants at regional and global scales. We analyse four mitigation scenarios using different combinations of activities and control measures. For the reference and sustainable policy scenarios, we compare the current policies (often lacking any controls) versus maximum feasible reductions through technological and management control measures to ...

Over the last decades the European Union has established strict air quality objectives, together with a comprehensive legal framework that should facilitate the achievements of these objectives. As a consequence, air quality has drastically improved in Europe, although the long-term objectives are still not met. The EU clean air legislation played an important role in these air quality improvements. Most importantly, the legal framework provided an effective response mechanism strategy to manage the complex interlinkages between the multitude of pollution sources and the regionally dispersed impacts on air quality which span across different legislation. These connections, which are a direct consequence of the physical nature of the key air pollutants (i.e., their long residence time in the atmosphere), make response strategies that extend beyond individual cities and countries indispensable. In order to implement effective policy responses, the area of the European Union is now considered as one airshed containing 27 Member States, and action needs to be coordinated between countries, regions, and city administrations. The clean air legislation of the EU acknowledges that the European Union as a supra-national institution has to play an important coordinating role in the policy response. It has been found practical to combine three legal pillars into a comprehensive EU clean air legislation framework: • The Ambient Air Quality Directives, • The National Emission Ceilings Directive, and • Source-specific performance standards. One important feature of EU policy that contributed to the success is that, in addition to the key obligations for reaching air quality standards and reducing emissions, all directives contain specific requirements and mechanisms for monitoring, reporting, validation and enforcement. Although the recent nature of some of the directives does not always allow for practical experience, systematic stock-taking on the strengths and weaknesses of older legislation has been recently conducted. This report summarizes the findings emerging from these assessments and indicates options for improvements that could be of interest for the design of effective clean air policies in other parts of the world. While the EU legal framework has obviously been developed for the EU situation, there might be important lessons, particularly on monitoring, review and verification, that could provide relevant insights for other countries which face similar complexities in air quality management, e.g., the need to involve multiple governance levels across State borders.

Over the last decades the European Union has established strict air quality objectives, together with a comprehensive legal framework that should facilitate the achievements of these objectives. As a consequence, air quality has drastically improved in Europe, although the long-term objectives are still not met. The EU clean air legislation played an important role in these air quality improvements. Most importantly, the legal framework provided an effective response mechanism strategy to manage the complex interlinkages between the multitude of pollution sources and the regionally dispersed impacts on air quality which span across different legislation. These connections, which are a direct consequence of the physical nature of the key air pollutants (i.e., their long residence time in the atmosphere), make response strategies that extend beyond individual cities and countries indispensable. In order to implement effective policy responses, the area of the European Union is now considered as one airshed containing 27 Member States, and action needs to be coordinated between countries, regions, and city administrations. The clean air legislation of the EU acknowledges that the European Union as a supra-national institution has to play an important coordinating role in the policy response. It has been found practical to combine three legal pillars into a comprehensive EU clean air legislation framework: • The Ambient Air Quality Directives, • The National Emission Ceilings Directive, and • Source-specific performance standards. One important feature of EU policy that contributed to the success is that, in addition to the key obligations for reaching air quality standards and reducing emissions, all directives contain specific requirements and mechanisms for monitoring, reporting, validation and enforcement. Although the recent nature of some of the directives does not always allow for practical experience, systematic stock-taking on the strengths and weaknesses of older legislation has been recently conducted. This report summarizes the findings emerging from these assessments and indicates options for improvements that could be of interest for the design of effective clean air policies in other parts of the world. While the EU legal framework has obviously been developed for the EU situation, there might be important lessons, particularly on monitoring, review and verification, that could provide relevant insights for other countries which face similar complexities in air quality management, e.g., the need to involve multiple governance levels across State borders.

The impact of the climate on the Arctic plays a crucial role for Finland's, as well as other Nordic countries', current and future climatic conditions. Far-reaching and multi-faceted changes are taking place in the Arctic, which have profound consequences for the region's economic and political significance in international relations. The review analyses the effects of climate change and likely climate abatement policies on the accessibility and value of natural resources in Northern Europe in the Arctic Sea area and on the logistical position of Northern Europe with a special emphasis on Finland.

The impact of the climate on the Arctic plays a crucial role for Finland's, as well as other Nordic countries', current and future climatic conditions. Far-reaching and multi-faceted changes are taking place in the Arctic, which have profound consequences for the region's economic and political significance in international relations. The review analyses the effects of climate change and likely climate abatement policies on the accessibility and value of natural resources in Northern Europe in the Arctic Sea area and on the logistical position of Northern Europe with a special emphasis on Finland.

This paper compares three scenarios of energy demand in the European Union until 2010 and analyses their effects on carbon emissions as well as their impacts on the precursor emissions for acidification and ground-level ozone. The analysis links the results of energy model PRIMES with the integrated environmental assessment model RAINS. Important synergies between climate change policies and policies to control regional air pollution have been identified. Mitigation of acidification and ozone according to the current EU strategy will be easier and cheaper if the Kyoto targets for the reduction of the emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) are to be met. In case when the Kyoto target needs to be achieved by individual EU member countries without trading in CO2 emission rights, the costs of controlling the pollutants contributing to acidification and ground-level ozone can be up to 10% lower than for the baseline scenario which does not assume any climate change policies. Although lower, the effects are also important if trading in carbon emission rights is allowed. These cost savings compensate up to 20% of higher costs of energy supplies in the EU and associated with them welfare losses caused by the necessity to meet the carbon constraint. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

This paper presents the first consistent inventory of emission of sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen oxides (NOX), particulate matter (PM), and carbon dioxide (CO2), for the countries co-operating in the Central European Initiative (CEI): Austria, Croatia, Czechoslovakia, Hungary, Italy, Poland, and Slovenia. The inventory is based on national and regional statistics as well as on information from collaborating institutions. National data has been verified and converted into a common format, consistent with the database used by the European Environmental Agency and the European Community ("the CORINAIR" system). The inventory describes emissions in the year 1988, before the restructuring process began in the socialist economies. Data has been collected on the national level, for administrational units and for large point sources. The database on point sources contains specific information on 400 large plants in the region (e.g., capacity, commissioning year, fuel use, production, etc.).

This paper presents the first consistent inventory of emission of sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen oxides (NOX), particulate matter (PM), and carbon dioxide (CO2), for the countries co-operating in the Central European Initiative (CEI): Austria, Croatia, Czechoslovakia, Hungary, Italy, Poland, and Slovenia. The inventory is based on national and regional statistics as well as on information from collaborating institutions. National data has been verified and converted into a common format, consistent with the database used by the European Environmental Agency and the European Community ("the CORINAIR" system). The inventory describes emissions in the year 1988, before the restructuring process began in the socialist economies. Data has been collected on the national level, for administrational units and for large point sources. The database on point sources contains specific information on 400 large plants in the region (e.g., capacity, commissioning year, fuel use, production, etc.).

This paper presents a summary of the work done within the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme project ECLIPSE (Evaluating the Climate and Air Quality Impacts of Short-Lived Pollutants). ECLIPSE had a unique systematic concept for designing a realistic and effective mitigation scenario for short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs; methane, aerosols and ozone, and their precursor species) and quantifying its climate and air quality impacts, and this paper presents the results in the context of this overarching strategy. The first step in ECLIPSE was to create a new emission inventory based on current legislation (CLE) for the recent past and until 2050. Substantial progress compared to previous work was made by including previously unaccounted types of sources such as flaring of gas associated with oil production, and wick lamps. These emission data were used for present-day reference simulations with four advanced Earth system models (ESMs) and six chemistry transport models (CTMs). The model simulations were compared with a variety of ground-based and satellite observational data sets from Asia, Europe and the Arctic. It was found that the models still underestimate the measured seasonality of aerosols in the Arctic but to a lesser extent than in previous studies. Problems likely related to the emissions were identified for northern Russia and India, in particular. To estimate the climate impacts of SLCPs, ECLIPSE followed two paths of research: the first path calculated radiative forcing (RF) values for a large matrix of SLCP species emissions, for different seasons and regions independently. Based on these RF calculations, the Global Temperature change Potential metric for a time horizon of 20 years (GTP20) was calculated for each SLP emission type. This climate metric was then used in an integrated assessment model to identify all emission mitigation measures with a beneficial air quality and short-term (20-year) climate impact. These measures together defined a SLCP mitigation (MIT) scenario. Compared to CLE, the MIT scenario would reduce global methane (CH4) and black carbon (BC) emissions by about 50 and 80 %, respectively. For CH4, measures on shale gas production, waste management and coal mines were most important. For non-CH4 SLCPs, elimination of high-emitting vehicles and wick lamps, as well as reducing emissions from gas flaring, coal and biomass stoves, agricultural waste, solvents and diesel engines were most important. These measures lead to large reductions in calculated surface concentrations of ozone and particulate matter. We estimate that in the EU, the loss of statistical life expectancy due to air pollution was 7.5 months in 2010, which will be reduced to 5.2 months by 2030 in the CLE scenario. The MIT scenario would reduce this value by another 0.9 to 4.3 months. Substantially larger reductions due to the mitigation are found for China (1.8 months) and India (11.12 months). The climate metrics cannot fully quantify the climate response. Therefore, a second research path was taken. Transient climate ensemble simulations with the four ESM were run for the CLE and MIT scenarios, to determine the climate impacts of the mitigation. In these simulation, the CLE scenario resulted in a surface temperature increase of 0.70 +/- 0.14 K between the years 2006 and 2050. For the decade 2041-2050, the warming was reduced by 0.22 +/- 0.07 K in the MIT scenario, and this result was in almost exact agreement with the response calculated based on the emission metrics (reduced warming of 0.22 +/- 0.09 K). The metrics calculations suggest that non-CH4 SLCPs contribute ~ 22 % to this response and CH4 78 %. This could not be fully confirmed by the transient simulations, which attributed about 90 % of the temperature response to CH4 reductions. Attribution of the observed temperature response to non-CH4 SLCP emission reductions and BC specifically is hampered in the transient simulations by small forcing and co-emitted species of the mission basket chosen. Nevertheless, an important conclusion is that our mitigation basket as a whole would lead to clear benefits for both air quality and climate. The climate response from BC reductions in our study is smaller than reported previously, possibly because our study is one of the first to use fully coupled climate models, where unforced variability and sea ice responses cause relatively strong temperature fluctuations that may counteract (and, thus, mask) the impacts of small emission reductions. The temperature responses to the mitigation were generally stronger over the continents than over the oceans, and with a warming reduction of 0.44 K (0.39-0.49)K the largest over the Arctic. Our calculations suggest particularly beneficial climate responses in southern Europe, where surface warming was reduced by about 0.3 K and precipitation rates were increased by about 15 (6.21) mm yr^-1 more than 4 % of total precipitation) from spring to autumn. Thus, the mitigation could help to alleviate expected future drought and water shortages in the Mediterranean area. We also report other important results of the ECLIPSE roject.

This paper presents a summary of the work done within the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme project ECLIPSE (Evaluating the Climate and Air Quality Impacts of Short-Lived Pollutants). ECLIPSE had a unique systematic concept for designing a realistic and effective mitigation scenario for short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs; methane, aerosols and ozone, and their precursor species) and quantifying its climate and air quality impacts, and this paper presents the results in the context of this overarching strategy. The first step in ECLIPSE was to create a new emission inventory based on current legislation (CLE) for the recent past and until 2050. Substantial progress compared to previous work was made by including previously unaccounted types of sources such as flaring of gas associated with oil production, and wick lamps. These emission data were used for present-day reference simulations with four advanced Earth system models (ESMs) and six chemistry transport models (CTMs). The model simulations were compared with a variety of ground-based and satellite observational data sets from Asia, Europe and the Arctic. It was found that the models still underestimate the measured seasonality of aerosols in the Arctic but to a lesser extent than in previous studies. Problems likely related to the emissions were identified for northern Russia and India, in particular. To estimate the climate impacts of SLCPs, ECLIPSE followed two paths of research: the first path calculated radiative forcing (RF) values for a large matrix of SLCP species emissions, for different seasons and regions independently. Based on these RF calculations, the Global Temperature change Potential metric for a time horizon of 20 years (GTP20) was calculated for each SLP emission type. This climate metric was then used in an integrated assessment model to identify all emission mitigation measures with a beneficial air quality and short-term (20-year) climate impact. These measures together defined a SLCP mitigation (MIT) scenario. Compared to CLE, the MIT scenario would reduce global methane (CH4) and black carbon (BC) emissions by about 50 and 80 %, respectively. For CH4, measures on shale gas production, waste management and coal mines were most important. For non-CH4 SLCPs, elimination of high-emitting vehicles and wick lamps, as well as reducing emissions from gas flaring, coal and biomass stoves, agricultural waste, solvents and diesel engines were most important. These measures lead to large reductions in calculated surface concentrations of ozone and particulate matter. We estimate that in the EU, the loss of statistical life expectancy due to air pollution was 7.5 months in 2010, which will be reduced to 5.2 months by 2030 in the CLE scenario. The MIT scenario would reduce this value by another 0.9 to 4.3 months. Substantially larger reductions due to the mitigation are found for China (1.8 months) and India (11.12 months). The climate metrics cannot fully quantify the climate response. Therefore, a second research path was taken. Transient climate ensemble simulations with the four ESM were run for the CLE and MIT scenarios, to determine the climate impacts of the mitigation. In these simulation, the CLE scenario resulted in a surface temperature increase of 0.70 +/- 0.14 K between the years 2006 and 2050. For the decade 2041-2050, the warming was reduced by 0.22 +/- 0.07 K in the MIT scenario, and this result was in almost exact agreement with the response calculated based on the emission metrics (reduced warming of 0.22 +/- 0.09 K). The metrics calculations suggest that non-CH4 SLCPs contribute ~ 22 % to this response and CH4 78 %. This could not be fully confirmed by the transient simulations, which attributed about 90 % of the temperature response to CH4 reductions. Attribution of the observed temperature response to non-CH4 SLCP emission reductions and BC specifically is hampered in the transient simulations by small forcing and co-emitted species of the mission basket chosen. Nevertheless, an important conclusion is that our mitigation basket as a whole would lead to clear benefits for both air quality and climate. The climate response from BC reductions in our study is smaller than reported previously, possibly because our study is one of the first to use fully coupled climate models, where unforced variability and sea ice responses cause relatively strong temperature fluctuations that may counteract (and, thus, mask) the impacts of small emission reductions. The temperature responses to the mitigation were generally stronger over the continents than over the oceans, and with a warming reduction of 0.44 K (0.39-0.49)K the largest over the Arctic. Our calculations suggest particularly beneficial climate responses in southern Europe, where surface warming was reduced by about 0.3 K and precipitation rates were increased by about 15 (6.21) mm yr^-1 more than 4 % of total precipitation) from spring to autumn. Thus, the mitigation could help to alleviate expected future drought and water shortages in the Mediterranean area. We also report other important results of the ECLIPSE roject.

Air pollution exposure is a leading public health problem in China. Despite recent air quality improvements, fine particulate matter (PM2.5) exposure remains large, the associated disease burden is substantial, and population ageing is projected to increase the susceptibility to disease. Here, we used emulators of a regional chemical transport model to quantify the impacts of future emission scenarios on air pollution exposure in China. We estimated how key emission sectors contribute to these future health impacts from air pollution exposure. We found that PM2.5 exposure declines in all scenarios across China over 2020–2050, with reductions of 15% under current air quality legislation, 36% when exploiting the full potential of air pollutant emission reduction technologies, and 39% when that technical mitigation potential is combined with emission controls for climate mitigation. However, population ageing means that the PM2.5 disease burden under current legislation (CLE) increases by 17% in 2050 relative to 2020. In comparison to CLE in 2050, the application of the best air pollution technologies provides substantial health benefits, reducing the PM2.5 disease burden by 16%, avoiding 536 600 (95% uncertainty interval, 95UI: 497 800–573 300) premature deaths per year. These public health benefits are mainly due to reductions in industrial (43%) and residential (30%) emissions. Climate mitigation efforts combined with the best air pollution technologies leads to an additional 2% reduction in the PM2.5 disease burden, avoiding 57 000 (95UI: 52 800–61 100) premature deaths per year. Up to 90% of the 2020–2050 reductions in PM2.5 exposure are already achieved by 2030, assuming efficient implementation and enforcement of currently committed air quality policies in key sectors. Achieving reductions in PM2.5 exposure and the associated disease burden after 2030 will require further tightening of emission limits for regulated sectors, addressing other sources including agriculture and waste management, and ...

Atmospheric aerosol particle number concentrations impact our climate and health in ways different from those of aerosol mass concentrations. However, the global, current and future anthropogenic particle number emissions and their size distributions are so far poorly known. In this article, we present the implementation of particle number emission factors and the related size distributions in the GAINS (Greenhouse Gas-Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies) model. This implementation allows for global estimates of particle number emissions under different future scenarios, consistent with emissions of other pollutants and greenhouse gases. In addition to determining the general particulate number emissions, we also describe a method to estimate the number size distributions of the emitted black carbon particles. The first results show that the sources dominating the particle number emissions are different to those dominating the mass emissions. The major global number source is road traffic, followed by residential combustion of biofuels and coal (especially in China, India and Africa), coke production (Russia and China), and industrial combustion and processes. The size distributions of emitted particles differ across the world, depending on the main sources: in regions dominated by traffic and industry, the number size distribution of emissions peaks in diameters range from 20 to 50 nm, whereas in regions with intensive biofuel combustion and/or agricultural waste burning, the emissions of particles with diameters around 100 nm are dominant. In the baseline (current legislation) scenario, the particle number emissions in Europe, Northern and Southern Americas, Australia, and China decrease until 2030, whereas especially for India, a strong increase is estimated. The results of this study provide input for modelling of the future changes in aerosol-cloud interactions as well as particle number related adverse health effects, e.g. in response to tightening emission regulations. However, there are significant uncertainties in these current emission estimates and the key actions for decreasing the uncertainties are pointed out.

Atmospheric aerosol particle number concentrations impact our climate and health in ways different from those of aerosol mass concentrations. However, the global, current and future anthropogenic particle number emissions and their size distributions are so far poorly known. In this article, we present the implementation of particle number emission factors and the related size distributions in the GAINS (Greenhouse Gas-Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies) model. This implementation allows for global estimates of particle number emissions under different future scenarios, consistent with emissions of other pollutants and greenhouse gases. In addition to determining the general particulate number emissions, we also describe a method to estimate the number size distributions of the emitted black carbon particles. The first results show that the sources dominating the particle number emissions are different to those dominating the mass emissions. The major global number source is road traffic, followed by residential combustion of biofuels and coal (especially in China, India and Africa), coke production (Russia and China), and industrial combustion and processes. The size distributions of emitted particles differ across the world, depending on the main sources: in regions dominated by traffic and industry, the number size distribution of emissions peaks in diameters range from 20 to 50 nm, whereas in regions with intensive biofuel combustion and/or agricultural waste burning, the emissions of particles with diameters around 100 nm are dominant. In the baseline (current legislation) scenario, the particle number emissions in Europe, Northern and Southern Americas, Australia, and China decrease until 2030, whereas especially for India, a strong increase is estimated. The results of this study provide input for modelling of the future changes in aerosol-cloud interactions as well as particle number related adverse health effects, e.g. in response to tightening emission regulations. However, there are significant uncertainties in these current emission estimates and the key actions for decreasing the uncertainties are pointed out.

The government of Indonesia has pledged to meet ambitious greenhouse gas mitigation goals in its Nationally Determined Contribution as well as reduce water pollution through its water management policies. A set of technologies could conceivably help achieving these goals simultaneously. However, the installation and widespread application of these technologies will require knowledge on how governance affects the implementation of existing policies as well as cooperation across sectors, administrative levels, and stakeholders. This paper integrates key governance variables--involving enforcement capacity, institutional coordination and multi-actor networks--into an analysis of the potential impacts on greenhouse gases and chemical oxygen demand in seven wastewater treatment scenarios for the fish processing industry in Indonesia. The analysis demonstrates that there is an increase of 24% in both CH4 and CO2 emissions between 2015 and 2030 in the business-as-usual scenario due to growth in production volumes. Interestingly, in scenarios focusing only on strengthening capacities to enforce national water policies, expected total greenhouse gas emissions are about five times higher than in the business-as-usual in 2030; this is due to growth in CH4 emissions during the handling and landfilling of sludge, as well as in CO2 generated from the electricity required for wastewater treatment. In the scenarios where there is significant cooperation across sectors, administrative levels, and stakeholders to integrate climate and water goals, both estimated chemical oxygen demand and CH4 emissions are considerably lower than in the business-as-usual and the national water policy scenarios.