Suchergebnisse

Mit dem Erwerbspersonenpotenzial zu Vollzeitäuivalenten wird ein Messkonzept für das gesamtwirtschaftliche Arbeitsangebot auf Stundenbasis vorgeschlagen. Es dient zur Berechnung des Faktors Arbeit in angebotsseitigen Schätzungen des Produktionspotenzials in der mittleren Frist. Besondere Aufmerksamkeit wird dem Einfluss der Zuwanderung und der Interdependenz zwischen Erwerbsbeteiligung und Arbeitszeitentscheidung geschenkt. Unter der Annahme zunehmender Beteiligung von Älteren und Frauen am Erwerbsleben sowie bei fortgesetzt hohen Wanderungsüberschüssen kann das Erwerbspersonenpotenzial trotz eines spürbar dämpfenden Alterskohorteneffekts bis 2020 stabilisiert werden. In Vollzeitäquivalenten ist aufgrund der negativen Rückwirkung steigender Erwerbsbeteiligung auf die Arbeitszeit allerdings mit einem Rückgang zu rechnen.

method is proposed to measure capital services in production. This means that productive assets are weighted according to their user costs. The user costs of the individual asset classes are estimated based on data from the national accounts and other sources. The results show that, in the observation period between 1991 and 2010, enterprises' capital services expand faster than the offcially published capital stock. For the economy as a whole, this applies only to phases of cyclical expansion. As the capital stock is aggregated using asset prices, the differences can be explained by the dfferent weighting methods in conjunction with the varying speeds at which the individual asset types have accumulated over time. In growth accounting, different estimates of total factor productivity emerge. The methodological difference, however, does not significantly affect the estimates of parametric production function specifications.

Es wird eine Methode zur Messung des Produktionsfaktors Kapital vorgeschlagen, in der Vermögensarten nach ihrem Nutzungswert im Produktionsprozess gewichtet werden. Dazu werden Nutzungskosten für die einzelnen Anlageklassen mit Hilfe von Daten der Volkswirtschaftlichen Gesamtrechnungen sowie anderer Quellen geschätzt. Im Beobachtungszeitraum von 1991 bis 2010 nahm der aggregierte Kapitaleinsatz der Unternehmen erkennbar stärker zu als der amtlich ausgewiesene Kapitalstock. In der Gesamtwirtschaft gilt dies nur für die zyklischen Expansionsphasen. Da das Statistische Bundesamt mit Bestandswerten gewichtet, sind die voneinander abweichenden Wägungsschemata in Verbindung mit den nach Vermögensarten variierenden Akkumulationsgeschwindigkeiten für die Unterschiede verantwortlich. Im Rahmen angebotsseitiger Zerlegungen des Wirtschaftswachstums ergeben sich daraus Differenzen in den Schätzungen der Totalen Faktorproduktivität. Parametrische Produktionsfunktionsschätzungen werden von diesem Methodenunterschied indessen nicht wesentlich beeinflusst. -- Kapitalstock ; Aggregation ; Produktionsfunktion ; TFP

Real residential investment in Germany is found to be cointegrated with population, real national income per capita and real house prices. This evidence is consistent with a model where the trend in housing demand is determined by demographic factors and economic well-being to which supply adjusts so slowly that real house prices are affected persistently. Reunification seems to have induced two structural changes in the empirical housing market model. First, the speed of equilibrium adjustment via residential investment slowed down substantially and real house prices lost the capacity to contribute to the adjustment process. Second, the degree of persistence in the error correction term increased a lot. The changing features are key to explain significant differences in alternative trend-cycle decompositions of residential investment.

The paper studies the short-term effects of energy price hikes on the supply of industrial goods and transport services including the repercussions on remuneration of input factors. While industry had suffered more strongly from the oil price shock of the late 1970s compared with the one of the early 1970s and the 2004-08 upsurge, evidence is reverse for transportation. Regarding the impact on the income distribution, both sectors share the pattern that in the recent episode rising energy costs were more than compensated by falling unit labor costs while in the 1970s cost structures had been strained by expansive wage policy in addition to the oil price shocks.

The paper develops an oil price forecasting technique which is based on the present value model of rational commodity pricing. The approach suggests shifting the forecasting problem to the marginal convenience yield which can be derived from the cost-of-carry relationship. In a recursive out-of-sample analysis, forecast accuracy at horizons within one year is checked by the root mean squared error as well as the mean error and the frequency of a correct direction-of-change prediction. For all criteria employed, the proposed forecasting tool outperforms the approach of using futures prices as direct predictors of future spot prices. Vis-a`-vis the random-walk model, it does not significantly improve forecast accuracy but provides valuable statements on the direction of change.

The paper presents empirical work on short-run and long-run comovement between the German, French and Italian aggregates of private consumption, business investment, exports, imports, GDP, and changes in inventories. In country-specific data sets, cointegration analyses are carried out both to identify long-run economic relationships and to remove the trend components from the nonstationary series. Analytically, this is done by reparametrizing the vector error correction model in its common trends representation. The resulting (Beveridge-Nelson) trend and cycle components as well as the series of changes in inventories are analyzed with a focus on synchronicity. To measure crosscountry comovement at different frequencies, ""cohesion"", a summary statistic developed by Croux et al. [2001], is applied. Sampling variability and parameter uncertainty are captured by bootstrapped confidence intervals.