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THE PRINCIPAL AIM OF THIS ESSAY IS TO EXAMINE AMERICA'S RESPONCE TO RUSSIA'S DEMANDS FOR JOINT CONTROL OF THE STRAITS IN AUGUST 1946. FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE THE END OF THE WAR, ADMINISTRATION OFFICIALS TALKED SERIOUSLY AMONG THEMSELVES ABOUT ARMED CONFLICT WITH RUSSIA OVER INTERESTS THAT HISTORICALLY HAD NO POLITICAL OR STRATEGIC IMPORTANCE FOR THE UNITED STATES.

The predictions of the adverse effects of global warming on climate change are now accepted by scientists and decision-makers. Less attention has been given to the economic, social, and political consequences. The economic consequences have been examined but the social and political consequences have not been sufficiently analysed or even contemplated. The three interact: the economic consequences of climate change will have social and political effects, which in turn will have dramatic implications for economies and economic well-being. The possible, and uncertain, economic consequences are summarised, drawing for instance on the Stern Review, and their possible, and even less certain, social and political consequences are analysed. The greatest losses and costs will be suffered by poor countries because their economies rely more on nature and weather. There is a risk that they will be driven down economically, so challenging the capacity of their governments to address the new poverty and maintain public services, and some will become fragile or even failed states. Coping with internal migration is likely to become a central policy issue. However, international migration to neighbouring and to richer countries is likely to become dominant, as income gaps widen and migrant flows are assisted by diasporas in the destination countries. The defensive policy responses of the rich countries can be predicted. Democratic politics will centre on the tensions and divisions coming from economic damage and rapid social change. The calamity will drag countries into both cooperation and conflict with each other. The effects of competition on sending countries, contiguous countries, and destination countries are examined. Three case studies are sketched to suggest how climate damage might play out: of southern Africa as a poor drought-prone region, Germany as a rich, host country, and Turkey as a neighbouring host and transit country. This paper is entirely predictive but the scenario has been presented in the fervent hope ...

Introduces Abel Grosvenor, formerly a student at Yale, who wishes to enter the Academy. ; Transcription by Joseph Byrne. Transcriptions may be subject to error.

South Africa has neither a developed nor a typical underdeveloped economy. Too often it has been wrongly classified, along with, say, Australia and New Zealand, as one of the peripheral developed countries, because only a part of the economy and population have the characteristics we associate with that group. Yet its economy is distinctly different from others in sub-Saharan Africa. South Africa falls squarely into the category which the World Bank classifies as 'upper middle-income' developing economies, with G.N.P. per capita in 1982 ranging from $2,000 to $7,000 and averaging $2,500, thereby including South Africa, with $2,700.1 (By contrast, Kenya's G.N.P. per capita was $400 and Britain's $10,000). The World Bank's group includes Algeria, Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Mexico, South Korea, Venezuela, and Yugoslavia. South Africa shares many structural economic characteristics with these semi-industrialised countries.

Mit dem sozio-ökonomischen Wandlungsprozeß, der in Südafrika immer mehr an Konturen gewinnt, verdeutlichen sich auch die Probleme des Landes und durch den ausgeprägten Dualismus werden viele Parallelen zu anderen schwarzafrikanischen Staaten offensichtlich. Zu den behandelten Einzelaspekten gehören: Einkommenswachstum pro Kopf, Fachkräftemangel, Bevölkerungswachstum, unzureichende Investitionen, Apartheidstrukturen, Beschäftigung und Arbeitslosigkeit, Verstädterung, Bildung von Humankapital sowie die äußerst ungleiche Einkommensverteilung. (DÜI-Hlb)

This paper examines an issue of overwhelming importance in South Africa--unemployment and its rise. It explains the factors behind the sharp rise in unemployment in the post-apartheid period, investigates the role of labour legislation and the system of labour market governance, evaluates the impact of the government's active labour market policies, identifies the knowledge gaps about the functioning of the labour market and draws some policy prescriptions. It analyses unemployment using household surveys spanning 1995-2003 and explains the rise in unemployment by the slow growth of the economy, and thus slow growth in the demand for labour relative to the rapidly growing supply, together with labour market inflexibility. The paper argues that if unemployment is to be tackled, it is crucial to pursue a set of policies that promote South Africa's rate of economic growth to promote job-creation, and also that labour market regulations require reconsideration, giving greater weight to the concerns of employers and investors, and to the interests of the unemployed and informally employed poor who are beyond the reach of the labour institutions but can be hurt by them nevertheless. It highlights that lack of appropriate data hinders analysis of important aspects such as entry into, exit from and duration of unemployment. Finally, the paper appeals for investigation of how active labour market policies to address unemployment--such as public works programmes, skills training programmes etc., formulated largely in the absence of local evidence--have performed.

Objective: To examine the tobacco industry's efforts to influence public policy and block the legislative process on tobacco control in Hong Kong, 1973 to 1997.