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Wildfires pose a significant risk to human livelihoods and are a substantial health hazard due to emissions of toxic smoke. Previous studies have shown that climate change, increasing atmospheric CO 2 , and human demographic dynamics can lead to substantially altered wildfire risk in the future, with fire activity increasing in some regions and decreasing in others. The present study re-examines these results from the perspective of air pollution risk, focussing on emissions of airborne particulate matter (PM 2. 5 ), combining an existing ensemble of simulations using a coupled fire–dynamic vegetation model with current observation-based estimates of wildfire emissions and simulations with a chemical transport model. Currently, wildfire PM 2. 5 emissions exceed those from anthropogenic sources in large parts of the world. We further analyse two extreme sets of future wildfire emissions in a socio-economic, demographic climate change context and compare them to anthropogenic emission scenarios reflecting current and ambitious air pollution legislation. In most regions of the world, ambitious reductions of anthropogenic air pollutant emissions have the potential to limit mean annual pollutant PM 2. 5 levels to comply with World Health Organization (WHO) air quality guidelines for PM 2. 5 . Worst-case future wildfire emissions are not likely to interfere with these annual goals, largely due to fire seasonality, as well as a tendency of wildfire sources to be situated in areas of intermediate population density, as opposed to anthropogenic sources that tend to be highest at the highest population densities. However, during the high-fire season, we find many regions where future PM 2. 5 pollution levels can reach dangerous levels even for a scenario of aggressive reduction of anthropogenic emissions.

Wildfires pose a significant risk to human livelihoods and are a substantial health hazard due to emissions of toxic smoke. Previous studies have shown that climate change, increasing atmospheric CO2, and human demographic dynamics can lead to substantially altered wildfire risk in the future, with fire activity increasing in some regions and decreasing in others. The present study re-examines these results from the perspective of air pollution risk, focussing on emissions of airborne particulate matter (PM2. 5), combining an existing ensemble of simulations using a coupled fire–dynamic vegetation model with current observation-based estimates of wildfire emissions and simulations with a chemical transport model. Currently, wildfire PM2. 5 emissions exceed those from anthropogenic sources in large parts of the world. We further analyse two extreme sets of future wildfire emissions in a socio-economic, demographic climate change context and compare them to anthropogenic emission scenarios reflecting current and ambitious air pollution legislation. In most regions of the world, ambitious reductions of anthropogenic air pollutant emissions have the potential to limit mean annual pollutant PM2. 5 levels to comply with World Health Organization (WHO) air quality guidelines for PM2. 5. Worst-case future wildfire emissions are not likely to interfere with these annual goals, largely due to fire seasonality, as well as a tendency of wildfire sources to be situated in areas of intermediate population density, as opposed to anthropogenic sources that tend to be highest at the highest population densities. However, during the high-fire season, we find many regions where future PM2. 5 pollution levels can reach dangerous levels even for a scenario of aggressive reduction of anthropogenic emissions.

Wildfires pose a significant risk to human livelihoods and are a substantial health hazard due to emissions of toxic smoke. Previous studies have shown that climate change, increasing atmospheric CO₂, and human demographic dynamics can lead to substantially altered wildfire risk in the future, with fire activity increasing in some regions and decreasing in others. The present study re-examines these results from the perspective of air pollution risk, focussing on emissions of airborne particulate matter (PM$_{2.5}$), combining an existing ensemble of simulations using a coupled fire–dynamic vegetation model with current observation-based estimates of wildfire emissions and simulations with a chemical transport model. Currently, wildfire PM$_{2.5}$ emissions exceed those from anthropogenic sources in large parts of the world. We further analyse two extreme sets of future wildfire emissions in a socio-economic, demographic climate change context and compare them to anthropogenic emission scenarios reflecting current and ambitious air pollution legislation. In most regions of the world, ambitious reductions of anthropogenic air pollutant emissions have the potential to limit mean annual pollutant PM$_{2.5}$ levels to comply with World Health Organization (WHO) air quality guidelines for PM$_{2.5}$. Worst-case future wildfire emissions are not likely to interfere with these annual goals, largely due to fire seasonality, as well as a tendency of wildfire sources to be situated in areas of intermediate population density, as opposed to anthropogenic sources that tend to be highest at the highest population densities. However, during the high-fire season, we find many regions where future PM$_{2.5}$ pollution levels can reach dangerous levels even for a scenario of aggressive reduction of anthropogenic ...

Festschrift der DSS-Arbeitspapiere für Prof. Dr. sc. mil. Rolf Lehmannn zu dessen 75. Geburtstag am 5. Mai 2004.:Redaktionelle Vorbemerkungen zu Prof. Dr. Rolf Lehmann. Grußworte an den Jubilar: Hans Süß, Klaus Freiherr von der Ropp, Wolfgang Demmer, Wolfgang Knorr, Gustav Urbani. Autorenbeiträge: - Hans Modrow, Frieden ist mehr als nur ein Wort … - Werner von Scheven, "Den Menschen dienen heißt ein Leben lang lernen und sagen was ist". - Paul Heider, Zu den Ursprüngen der Dresdener Studiengemeinschaft Sicherheitspolitik e. V. aus der Sicht eines Militärhistorikers. - Wilfried Schreiber, Die Botschaft der Akademie wurde gehört – Eine Erinnerung. - Wolfgang Scheler, Konfrontative oder gemeinsame Sicherheit. - Hermann Hagena, Angriff die beste Verteidigung? Zur wechselvollen Geschichte dieses Prinzips. .- Horst Großmann, Die "neuen Kriege" – Logisches und Historisches. - Max Schmidt, Europäisierung der Friedenssicherung – Macht die OSZE noch Sinn? - Lothar Schröter, Anspruch versus Logik militärischer Machtentfaltung der Europäischen Union (EU). - Ernst Woit, Menschenrechte und bewaffnete Intervention. - Joachim Klopfer, Abrüstung und Rüstungskontrolle – durch Krieg? - Siegfried Schönherr, Gemeinsame Sicherheit – zu welchen Kosten? - Günther Oppermann Zur Sicherheit in der Wirtschaft im Spiegel der Thermodynamik. - Dietmar Schössler, Kasernenstaat Nordkorea. Anhang: Publikationen Rolf Lehmann (Auswahl) Autorenverzeichnis

The important role of fire in regulating vegetation community composition and contributions to emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols make it a critical component of dynamic global vegetation models and Earth system models. Over two decades of development, a wide variety of model structures and mechanisms have been designed and incorporated into global fire models, which have been linked to different vegetation models. However, there has not yet been a systematic examination of how these different strategies contribute to model performance. Here we describe the structure of the first phase of the Fire Model Intercomparison Project (FireMIP), which for the first time seeks to systematically compare a number of models. By combining a standardized set of input data and model experiments with a rigorous comparison of model outputs to each other and to observations, we will improve the understanding of what drives vegetation fire, how it can best be simulated, and what new or improved observational data could allow better constraints on model behavior. Here we introduce the fire models used in the first phase of FireMIP, the simulation protocols applied, and the benchmarking system used to evaluate the models. The works published in this journal are distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License. This license does not affect the Crown copy-right work, which is re-usable under the Open Government Licence (OGL). The Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License and the OGL are interoperable and do not conflict with, reduce, or limit each other.