Suchergebnisse

AbstractIn 2011, Kansas and Wisconsin experimented with fiscal austerity policies. Proponents of the tax and public expenditure cuts argued that they would spur economic growth, while opponents claimed that it would harm vulnerable populations. I use the timing of these policies and the synthetic control method to examine how state‐level austerity affected earnings per worker for high and low education segments of the workforce in major urban areas. The results suggest that the Kansas and Wisconsin fiscal experiments hurt low education workers in some urban areas. The estimates also show heterogeneity in the treatment effect. Notably, Madison, WI, was the only urban area that experienced substantial positive growth in both education segments.

In this paper, we estimate the long-term causal effect of population losses on local government revenue, expenditure, and debt by exploiting a quasi-exogenous change that reduced the number of US military personnel by about 40 percent between the late 1980s and 2000. Aggregating across governmental units within commuting zones, we find that real per capita total revenues and expenditures remained unchanged for remaining citizens. At the same time, however, we note several important compositional effects. First, local governments appear to have offset reductions in state intergovernmental aid by increasing property tax revenues. Second, they significantly shifted the composition of expenditures by making disproportionately large cuts in capital spending, including cuts in K–12 education, to maintain levels for current operations. Third, localities increased their long-term nonguaranteed debt to finance investments not covered by general capital outlays. Taken together, these actions run the risk of hindering a region's relative competitiveness in the long term.