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Cover -- Half Title -- Title -- Copyright -- Summary of Contents -- Contents -- Foreword -- Acknowledgments -- About the Authors -- Abbreviations -- PART I: Context -- Chapter 1 A Decade after the Global Recession: Lessons and Challenges -- Introduction -- Global recessions: Infrequent, but always costly -- Before the recession: A seemingly golden era -- During the recession: A highly synchronized contraction -- After the recession: The lackluster recovery -- A clouded horizon: Prospects and risks -- Lessons and policy challenges -- Synopsis -- References -- Chapter 2 What Happens during Global Recessions? -- Introduction -- Identification of turning points of the global business cycle -- Global recessions and recoveries: Dates and events -- Main features of global recessions, recoveries, and expansions -- Conclusion -- Annex 2A -- Annex 2B -- Annex 2C -- References -- PART II: In the Rearview Mirror -- Chapter 3 Macroeconomic Developments -- Introduction -- Before the global recession: Strong growth -- During the global recession: Resilience -- After the global recession: Protracted weakness -- Conclusion -- References -- Chapter 4 Financial Market Developments -- Introduction -- Before the global recession: Expansion and strengthening -- During the global recession: General resilience, with exceptions -- After the global recession: Growing debt and heightened vulnerabilities -- Changes in financial markets -- Conclusion -- References -- Chapter 5 Macroeconomic and Financial Sector Policies -- Introduction -- Macroeconomic policies -- Financial sector policies -- Capital flow management policies -- Conclusion -- References -- PART III: Looking Ahead -- Chapter 6 Prospects, Risks, and Vulnerabilities -- Introduction -- Prospects for growth -- Downside risks to growth prospects -- Rising vulnerabilities.

This paper analyzes the evolution of the degree of global cyclical interdependence over the period 1960-2005. We categorize the 106 countries in our sample into three groupsindustrial countries, emerging markets, and other developing economies. Using a dynamic factor model, we then decompose macroeconomic fluctuations in key macroeconomic aggregatesoutput, consumption, and investmentinto different factors. These are: (i) a global factor, which picks up fluctuations that are common across all variables and countries; (ii) three group-specific factors, which capture fluctuations that are common to all variables and all countries within each group of countries; (iii) country factors, which are common across all aggregates in a given country; and (iv) idiosyncratic factors specific to each time series. Our main result is that, during the period of globalization (1985-2005), there has bee some convergence of business cycle fluctuations among the group of industrial economies and among the group of emerging market economies. Surprisingly, there has been a concomitant decline in the relative importance of the global factor. In other words, there is evidence of business cycle convergence within each of these two groups of countries but divergence (or decoupling) between them. -- Globalization ; Business cycles ; Macroeconomic fluctuations ; Convergence ; Decoupling