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International audience ; Background, It is well known that high ambient temperatures are associated with increased mortality, even in temperate climates, but some important details are unclear. In particular how heat-mortality associations (for example slopes and thresholds) vary by climate has previously been considered only qualitatively. Methods We carried out an ecological time-series regression analysis of daily counts of all-cause mortality and ambient temperature in summers between 1993 and 2006 in the ten government regions, focusing on all-cause mortality and two-day mean temperature (lags 0 and 1). Results All regions showed evidence of increased risk on hottest days, but the specifics, in particular the threshold temperature at which adverse effects started, varied. Thresholds were at about the same centile temperatures (the 93rd, year-round) in all regions - hotter climates had higher threshold temperatures. Mean supra-threshold slope was 2.1%/oC (95% CI: 1.6, 2.4), but regions with higher summer temperatures showed greater slopes, a pattern well-characterized by a linear model with mean summer temperature. These climate-based linear-threshold models capture most but not all the association; there was evidence for some nonlinearity above thresholds, with slope increasing at highest temperatures. Conclusion Effects of high daily summer temperatures on mortality in English regions are quite well approximated by threshold-linear models that can be predicted from the region's climate (93rd centile and mean summer temperature). It remains to be seen whether similar relationships fit other countries and climates or change over time, such as with climate change.

ABSTRACTBackground Campylobacteriosis is a major public health concern. Despite evidence that climate factors influence the spatio-temporal patterns of the infections; their impact is not fully described and understood.
ObjectivesTo examine methods for determining the impact of rainfall and temperature on Campylobacter cases in England and Wales.
MethodsReported cases for England and Wales were linked to local temperature and rainfall at laboratory postcode locations in the 30 days before the specimen date. Descriptive, statistical and spatial methods included a novel Comparative Conditional Incidence (CCI), wavelet analysis, hierarchical clustering, generalized additive model (GAM) and generalized structural time series model (GEST).ResultsThe Campylobacter increase in late spring was linked to temperature two weeks prior, with an increase in CCI of 0.175 cases per 100,000 per week for weeks 17 to 24; the relationship was non-linear and changed through the year. GEST with penalized varying temperature coefficient found 33% of the seasonal change was attributable to temperature, while with a fixed temperature coefficient found 8%. Wavelet analysis showed a strong annual cycle, with harmonics at six and four months and no simple association with temperature or rainfall. Geographic clustering showed three clusters with geographic similarities, representing metropolitan, rural, and other areas.
ConclusionsOur analyses provide more robust and convincing associations than simple regression analysis. The association with temperature is likely to be indirect and the primary driver remains to be determined. Local-temporal linkage of weather parameters and cases is important in improving the resolution of climate associations with infectious diseases and provides methods which can improve disease predictions. Further examination of data from a wider geographic area and longer time series should improve the understanding of the epidemiology and drivers of human Campylobacter infections.

BACKGROUND: We describe a project to quantify the burden of heat and ozone on mortality in the UK, both for the present-day and under future emission scenarios. METHODS: Mortality burdens attributable to heat and ozone exposure are estimated by combination of climate-chemistry modelling and epidemiological risk assessment. Weather forecasting models (WRF) are used to simulate the driving meteorology for the EMEP4UK chemistry transport model at 5 km by 5 km horizontal resolution across the UK; the coupled WRF-EMEP4UK model is used to simulate daily surface temperature and ozone concentrations for the years 2003, 2005 and 2006, and for future emission scenarios. The outputs of these models are combined with evidence on the ozone-mortality and heat-mortality relationships derived from epidemiological analyses (time series regressions) of daily mortality in 15 UK conurbations, 1993-2003, to quantify present-day health burdens. RESULTS: During the August 2003 heatwave period, elevated ozone concentrations > 200 microg m-3 were measured at sites in London and elsewhere. This and other ozone photochemical episodes cause breaches of the UK air quality objective for ozone. Simulations performed with WRF-EMEP4UK reproduce the August 2003 heatwave temperatures and ozone concentrations. There remains day-to-day variability in the high ozone concentrations during the heatwave period, which on some days may be explained by ozone import from the European continent.Preliminary calculations using extended time series of spatially-resolved WRF-EMEP4UK model output suggest that in the summers (May to September) of 2003, 2005 & 2006 over 6000 deaths were attributable to ozone and around 5000 to heat in England and Wales. The regional variation in these deaths appears greater for heat-related than for ozone-related burdens.Changes in UK health burdens due to a range of future emission scenarios will be quantified. These future emissions scenarios span a range of possible futures from assuming current air quality legislation is fully implemented, to a more optimistic case with maximum feasible reductions, through to a more pessimistic case with continued strong economic growth and minimal implementation of air quality legislation. CONCLUSION: Elevated surface ozone concentrations during the 2003 heatwave period led to exceedences of the current UK air quality objective standards. A coupled climate-chemistry model is able to reproduce these temperature and ozone extremes. By combining model simulations of surface temperature and ozone with ozone-heat-mortality relationships derived from an epidemiological regression model, we estimate present-day and future health burdens across the UK. Future air quality legislation may need to consider the risk of increases in future heatwaves.

BACKGROUND: We describe a project to quantify the burden of heat and ozone on mortality in the UK, both for the present-day and under future emission scenarios. METHODS: Mortality burdens attributable to heat and ozone exposure are estimated by combination of climate-chemistry modelling and epidemiological risk assessment. Weather forecasting models (WRF) are used to simulate the driving meteorology for the EMEP4UK chemistry transport model at 5 km by 5 km horizontal resolution across the UK; the coupled WRF-EMEP4UK model is used to simulate daily surface temperature and ozone concentrations for the years 2003, 2005 and 2006, and for future emission scenarios. The outputs of these models are combined with evidence on the ozone-mortality and heat-mortality relationships derived from epidemiological analyses (time series regressions) of daily mortality in 15 UK conurbations, 1993-2003, to quantify present-day health burdens. RESULTS: During the August 2003 heatwave period, elevated ozone concentrations > 200 microg m-3 were measured at sites in London and elsewhere. This and other ozone photochemical episodes cause breaches of the UK air quality objective for ozone. Simulations performed with WRF-EMEP4UK reproduce the August 2003 heatwave temperatures and ozone concentrations. There remains day-to-day variability in the high ozone concentrations during the heatwave period, which on some days may be explained by ozone import from the European continent.Preliminary calculations using extended time series of spatially-resolved WRF-EMEP4UK model output suggest that in the summers (May to September) of 2003, 2005 & 2006 over 6000 deaths were attributable to ozone and around 5000 to heat in England and Wales. The regional variation in these deaths appears greater for heat-related than for ozone-related burdens.Changes in UK health burdens due to a range of future emission scenarios will be quantified. These future emissions scenarios span a range of possible futures from assuming current air quality legislation is fully implemented, to a more optimistic case with maximum feasible reductions, through to a more pessimistic case with continued strong economic growth and minimal implementation of air quality legislation. CONCLUSION: Elevated surface ozone concentrations during the 2003 heatwave period led to exceedences of the current UK air quality objective standards. A coupled climate-chemistry model is able to reproduce these temperature and ozone extremes. By combining model simulations of surface temperature and ozone with ozone-heat-mortality relationships derived from an epidemiological regression model, we estimate present-day and future health burdens across the UK. Future air quality legislation may need to consider the risk of increases in future heatwaves.

Limited information is available on the perceptions of stakeholders concerning the health co-benefits of greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions. The purpose of this study was to investigate the perceptions of urban residents on the health co-benefits involving GHG abatement and related influencing factors in three cities in China. Beijing, Ningbo and Guangzhou were selected for this survey. Participants were recruited from randomly chosen committees, following quotas for gender and age in proportion to the respective population shares. Chi-square or Fisher's exact tests were employed to examine the associations between socio-demographic variables and individuals' perceptions of the health co-benefits related to GHG mitigation. Unconditional logistic regression analysis was performed to investigate the influencing factors of respondents' awareness about the health co-benefits. A total of 1159 participants were included in the final analysis, of which 15.9% reported that they were familiar with the health co-benefits of GHG emission reductions. Those who were younger, more educated, with higher family income, and with registered urban residence, were more likely to be aware of health co-benefits. Age, attitudes toward air pollution and governmental efforts to improve air quality, suffering from respiratory diseases, and following low carbon lifestyles are significant predictors of respondents' perceptions on the health co-benefits. These findings may not only provide information to policy-makers to develop and implement public welcome policies of GHG mitigation, but also help to bridge the gap between GHG mitigation measures and public engagement as well as willingness to change health-related behaviors.

Limited information is available on the perceptions of stakeholders concerning the health co-benefits of greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions. The purpose of this study was to investigate the perceptions of urban residents on the health co-benefits involving GHG abatement and related influencing factors in three cities in China. Beijing, Ningbo and Guangzhou were selected for this survey. Participants were recruited from randomly chosen committees, following quotas for gender and age in proportion to the respective population shares. Chi-square or Fisher's exact tests were employed to examine the associations between socio-demographic variables and individuals' perceptions of the health co-benefits related to GHG mitigation. Unconditional logistic regression analysis was performed to investigate the influencing factors of respondents' awareness about the health co-benefits. A total of 1159 participants were included in the final analysis, of which 15.9% reported that they were familiar with the health co-benefits of GHG emission reductions. Those who were younger, more educated, with higher family income, and with registered urban residence, were more likely to be aware of health co-benefits. Age, attitudes toward air pollution and governmental efforts to improve air quality, suffering from respiratory diseases, and following low carbon lifestyles are significant predictors of respondents' perceptions on the health co-benefits. These findings may not only provide information to policy-makers to develop and implement public welcome policies of GHG mitigation, but also help to bridge the gap between GHG mitigation measures and public engagement as well as willingness to change health-related behaviors.

The Lancet Countdown: tracking progress on health and climate change is an international, multidisciplinary research collaboration between academic institutions and practitioners across the world. It follows on from the work of the 2015 Lancet Commission, which concluded that the response to climate change could be "the greatest global health opportunity of the 21st century". The Lancet Countdown aims to track the health impacts of climate hazards; health resilience and adaptation; health co-benefits of climate change mitigation; economics and finance; and political and broader engagement. These focus areas form the five thematic working groups of the Lancet Countdown and represent different aspects of the complex association between health and climate change. These thematic groups will provide indicators for a global overview of health and climate change; national case studies highlighting countries leading the way or going against the trend; and engagement with a range of stakeholders. The Lancet Countdown ultimately aims to report annually on a series of indicators across these five working groups. This paper outlines the potential indicators and indicator domains to be tracked by the collaboration, with suggestions on the methodologies and datasets available to achieve this end. The proposed indicator domains require further refinement, and mark the beginning of an ongoing consultation process—from November, 2016 to early 2017—to develop these domains, identify key areas not currently covered, and change indicators where necessary. This collaboration will actively seek to engage with existing monitoring processes, such as the UN Sustainable Development Goals and WHO's climate and health country profiles. The indicators will also evolve over time through ongoing collaboration with experts and a range of stakeholders, and be dependent on the emergence of new evidence and knowledge. During the course of its work, the Lancet Countdown will adopt a collaborative and iterative process, which aims to complement existing initiatives, welcome engagement with new partners, and be open to developing new research projects on health and climate change.

The Lancet Countdown: tracking progress on health and climate change is an international, multidisciplinary research collaboration between academic institutions and practitioners across the world. It follows on from the work of the 2015 Lancet Commission, which concluded that the response to climate change could be "the greatest global health opportunity of the 21st century". The Lancet Countdown aims to track the health impacts of climate hazards; health resilience and adaptation; health co-benefits of climate change mitigation; economics and finance; and political and broader engagement. These focus areas form the five thematic working groups of the Lancet Countdown and represent different aspects of the complex association between health and climate change. These thematic groups will provide indicators for a global overview of health and climate change; national case studies highlighting countries leading the way or going against the trend; and engagement with a range of stakeholders. The Lancet Countdown ultimately aims to report annually on a series of indicators across these five working groups. This paper outlines the potential indicators and indicator domains to be tracked by the collaboration, with suggestions on the methodologies and datasets available to achieve this end. The proposed indicator domains require further refinement, and mark the beginning of an ongoing consultation process—from November, 2016 to early 2017—to develop these domains, identify key areas not currently covered, and change indicators where necessary. This collaboration will actively seek to engage with existing monitoring processes, such as the UN Sustainable Development Goals and WHO's climate and health country profiles. The indicators will also evolve over time through ongoing collaboration with experts and a range of stakeholders, and be dependent on the emergence of new evidence and knowledge. During the course of its work, the Lancet Countdown will adopt a collaborative and iterative process, which aims to complement ...

The Lancet Countdown: tracking progress on health and climate change is an international, multidisciplinary research collaboration between academic institutions and practitioners across the world. It follows on from the work of the 2015 Lancet Commission, which concluded that the response to climate change could be "the greatest global health opportunity of the 21st century". The Lancet Countdown aims to track the health impacts of climate hazards; health resilience and adaptation; health co-benefits of climate change mitigation; economics and finance; and political and broader engagement. These focus areas form the five thematic working groups of the Lancet Countdown and represent different aspects of the complex association between health and climate change. These thematic groups will provide indicators for a global overview of health and climate change; national case studies highlighting countries leading the way or going against the trend; and engagement with a range of stakeholders. The Lancet Countdown ultimately aims to report annually on a series of indicators across these five working groups. This paper outlines the potential indicators and indicator domains to be tracked by the collaboration, with suggestions on the methodologies and datasets available to achieve this end. The proposed indicator domains require further refinement, and mark the beginning of an ongoing consultation process-from November, 2016 to early 2017-to develop these domains, identify key areas not currently covered, and change indicators where necessary. This collaboration will actively seek to engage with existing monitoring processes, such as the UN Sustainable Development Goals and WHO's climate and health country profiles. The indicators will also evolve over time through ongoing collaboration with experts and a range of stakeholders, and be dependent on the emergence of new evidence and knowledge. During the course of its work, the Lancet Countdown will adopt a collaborative and iterative process, which aims to complement existing initiatives, welcome engagement with new partners, and be open to developing new research projects on health and climate change.

The Lancet Countdown: tracking progress on health and climate change is an international, multidisciplinary research collaboration between academic institutions and practitioners across the world. It follows on from the work of the 2015 Lancet Commission, which concluded that the response to climate change could be "the greatest global health opportunity of the 21st century". The Lancet Countdown aims to track the health impacts of climate hazards; health resilience and adaptation; health co-benefits of climate change mitigation; economics and finance; and political and broader engagement. These focus areas form the five thematic working groups of the Lancet Countdown and represent different aspects of the complex association between health and climate change. These thematic groups will provide indicators for a global overview of health and climate change; national case studies highlighting countries leading the way or going against the trend; and engagement with a range of stakeholders. The Lancet Countdown ultimately aims to report annually on a series of indicators across these five working groups. This paper outlines the potential indicators and indicator domains to be tracked by the collaboration, with suggestions on the methodologies and datasets available to achieve this end. The proposed indicator domains require further refinement, and mark the beginning of an ongoing consultation process—from November, 2016 to early 2017—to develop these domains, identify key areas not currently covered, and change indicators where necessary. This collaboration will actively seek to engage with existing monitoring processes, such as the UN Sustainable Development Goals and WHO's climate and health country profiles. The indicators will also evolve over time through ongoing collaboration with experts and a range of stakeholders, and be dependent on the emergence of new evidence and knowledge. During the course of its work, the Lancet Countdown will adopt a collaborative and iterative process, which aims to complement existing initiatives, welcome engagement with new partners, and be open to developing new research projects on health and climate change.