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The dot-com bubble, the Bush deficits and the U.S. current account
In: NBER working paper series 11543
When is growth pro-poor?: Cross-country evidence
In: Policy research working paper 3225
Comparative advantage and the cross-section of business cycles
In: NBER working paper series 8104
Methodology for a World Bank Human Capital Index
In: World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 8593
SSRN
Working paper
Weak Instruments in Growth Regressions : Implications for Recent Cross-Country Evidence on Inequality and Growth
This paper revisits four recent cross-country empirical studies on the effects of inequality on growth. All four studies report strongly significant negative effects, using the popular system generalized method of moments estimator that is frequently used in cross-country growth empirics. This paper shows that the internal instruments relied on by this estimator in these inequality-and-growth regressions are weak, and that weak instrument-consistent confidence sets for the effect of inequality on growth include a wide range of positive and negative values. This suggests that strong conclusions about the effect of inequality on growth— in either direction—cannot be drawn from these studies. This paper also systematically explores a wide range of alternative sets of internal instruments, and finds that problems of weak instruments are pervasive across these alternatives. More generally, the paper illustrates the importance of documenting instrument strength, basing inferences on procedures that are robust to weak instruments, and considering alternative instrument sets when using the system generalized method of moments estimator for cross-country growth empirics.
BASE
Government Spending Multipliers in Developing Countries : Evidence from Lending by Official Creditors
This paper uses a novel loan-level dataset covering lending by official creditors to developing country governments to construct an instrument for government spending. These loans typically finance multi-year spending projects, with disbursements linked to the stages of project implementation. The identification strategy exploits the long lags between approval and eventual disbursement of these loans to isolate a predetermined component of public spending associated with past loan approval decisions taken before the realization of contemporaneous shocks. In a large sample of 102 developing countries over the period 1970-2010, the one-year spending multiplier is reasonably-precisely estimated to be around 0.4.
BASE
Government Spending Multipliers in Developing Countries : Evidence from Lending by Official Creditors
The author uses a novel loan-level dataset covering lending by official creditors to developing country governments to construct an instrument for government spending. Loans from official creditors typically finance multiyear public spending projects, with disbursements linked to the stages of project implementation. The identification strategy exploits the long lags between approval and eventual disbursement of these loans to isolate a predetermined component of public spending associated with past loan approval decisions taken before the realization of contemporaneous shocks. In a large sample of 102 developing countries over the period 1970-2010, the one-year spending multiplier is reasonably-precisely estimated to be around 0.4.
BASE
When is growth pro-poor? Evidence from a panel of countries
In: Journal of development economics, Band 80, Heft 1, S. 198-227
ISSN: 0304-3878
When is growth pro-poor?: Evidence from a panel of countries
In: Journal of development economics, Band 80, Heft 1, S. 198-227
ISSN: 0304-3878
World Affairs Online
When is Growth Pro-Poor? Cross-Country Evidence
In: IMF Working Paper No. 04/47
SSRN
Do high interest rates defend currencies during speculative attacks?
In: Journal of international economics, Band 59, Heft 2, S. 297-321
ISSN: 0022-1996
World Affairs Online