Suchergebnisse

This paper examines the effect of elections on fiscal policies in 21 countries in Latin America and the Caribbean from 1983 to 1996. The budget surplus proves to be lower than normal in the preelectoral and higher in the postelectoral years. Both the expenditure and revenue sides contribute to this cyclicality.

Intergovernmental transfers from the central level are an important source of revenue for most subnational governments in developing countries. This importance is likely to grow even further considering ongoing decentralization initiatives in Latin America and elsewhere. This paper investigates whether the transfer of mechanisms in place in Argentina, Mexico, and Brazil satisfy a set of basic propositions: (a) equity principle: poorer jurisdictions are not treated less favorably than better off ones; (b) incentive principle: subnational tax effort is encouraged; and (c) political nondiscrimination principle: electoral, partisan or other political constellations play no role in determining the distribution of transfers. Strikingly, politics do seem to matter. This paper concludes that the political and budgetary institution reform must go hand in hand if a rational system of fiscal federalism is to evolve.

This paper examines passible causes for the acceleration of tropical deforestation and the role of a popular instrument to reverse this trend, debt-for-nature swamps (DNS). This instrument builds on the contention that the debt crisis of developing countries has created the need to exploit natural resources, such as tropical forest areas. Thus, DNS could potentially protect forests directly (through conservation projects) and indirectly (by reducing debt-induced pressure on the forests). First, an instrumental critique of DNS is given, followed by an empirical examination of the debt-deforestation link that stands behind the instrument of DNS. Neither this nor other plausible causes of the acceleration of deforestation can be identified as significant in a cross-country study. The paper concludes that appropriate policy instruments must be based on case-specific research.

In der vorliegenden Studie wird die Rolle der Eisenbahn vor dem Hintergrund der wirtschaftlichen und gesellschaftlichen Verhältnisse Tansanias, der Situation der Armen in diesem Land und ihren Wirkungen und Wirkungsmöglichkeiten für diese Gruppe analysiert. Die Autoren untersuchen dabei sowohl die direkten Auswirkungen (z.B. Beschäftigungsmöglichkeiten und soziale Sicherung) als auch die indirekten Folgen (z.B. Verbesserung des Personenverkehrs und der Güterversorgung). Aus den gewonnenen Erkenntnissen, die auch auf eigenen Erhebungen vor Ort basieren, leiten sie konkrete Empfehlungen ab, z.B. zur Tarifgestaltung unter Effiezienz- und Armutsgesichtspunkten. (DÜI-Hff)

How will a changing climate impact the creditworthiness of governments over the very long term? Financial markets need credible, digestible information on how climate change translates into material risks. To bridge the gap between climate science and real-world financial indicators, the authors simulate the effect of climate change on sovereign credit ratings for 108 countries, creating the world's first climate-adjusted sovereign credit rating. The study offers a first methodological approach to extend the long-term rating to an ultra-long-term reality, aiming at long-term investors, but also regulators and rating agencies.

The current financial, economic and fiscal crisis is among other things characterised by complex interrelations between financial, fiscal, macroeconomic and political instability. One instability breeds another, with feedback loops generating self-reinforcing adverse cycles: The financial crisis triggered the 'Great Recession'. Countermeasures by governments – to save banks and bolster up aggregate demand – ultimately jeopardized fiscal sustainability and bred the fiscal crisis. The latter in turn destabilised sovereign bond markets and banking systems in several countries. Political instability resulted from the substantial fiscal consolidations forced upon governments in the light of threatening or actual loss of access to financial market financing, and the accompanying deep recessions and sharp increase in unemployment. Political instability in turn further erodes economic and financial market confidence, thus worsening short and long-term economic and fiscal prospects, and further aggravating financial instability. In the EU and more specifically the Euro Area, multiple channels of spillovers and contagion turn the problems from purely national phenomena to ones of EU-wide and ultimately even global scope. Thus, apart from national political processes, Euro Area and EU-wide economic governance has been criticized for not addressing reform needs decisively, thus prolonging and deepening the cycle of instability.