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Climate-driven changes in aquatic environments have already started to affect the European aquaculture sector's most commercially important finfish and shellfish species. In addition to changes in water quality and temperature that can directly influence fish production by altering health status, growth performance and/or feed conversion, the aquaculture sector also faces an uncertain future in terms of production costs and returns. For example, the availability of key ingredients for fish feeds (proteins, omega-3 fatty acids) will not only depend on future changes in climate, but also on social and political factors, thereby influencing feed costs. The future cost of energy, another main expenditure for fish farms, will also depend on various factors. Finally, marketing options and subsidies will have major impacts on future aquaculture profitability. Based on the framework of four socio-political scenarios developed in the EU H2020 project climate change and European aquatic resources (CERES), we defined how these key factors for the aquaculture sector could change in the future. We then apply these scenarios to make projections of how climate change and societal and economic trends influence the mid-century (2050) profitability of European aquaculture. We used an established benchmarking approach to contrast present-day and future economic performance of "typical farms" in selected European production regions under each of the scenarios termed "World Markets," "National Enterprise," "Global Sustainability" and "Local Stewardship." These scenarios were based partly on the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios framework and their representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and the widely used shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs). Together, these scenarios contrast local versus international emphasis on decision making, more versus less severe environmental change, and different consequences for producers due to future commodity prices, cash returns, and costs. The mid-century profitability of the typical farms was most sensitive to the future development of feed costs, price trends of returns, and marketing options as opposed to the direct effect of climate-driven changes in the environment. These results can inform adaptation planning by the European aquaculture sector. Moreover, applying consistent scenarios including societal and economic dimensions, facilitates regional to global comparisons of adaptation advice both within and across Blue Growth sectors.

It has proven extremely challenging for researchers to predict with confidence how human societies might develop in the future, yet managers and industries need to make projections in order to test adaptation and mitigation strategies designed to build resilience to long-term shocks. This paper introduces exploratory scenarios with a particular focus on European aquaculture and fisheries and describes how these scenarios were designed. Short-, medium- and long-term developments in socio-political drivers may be just as important in determining profits, revenues and prospects in the aquaculture and fisheries industries as physical drivers such as long-term climate change. Four socio-political-economic futures were developed, based partly on the IPCC SRES (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) framework and partly on the newer system of Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs). 'Off theshelf' narrative material as well as quantitative outputs were 'borrowed' from earlier frameworks but supplemented with material generated through in-depth stakeholder workshops involving industry and policy makers. Workshop participants were tasked to outline how they thought their sector might look under the four future worlds and, in particular, to make use of the PESTEL conceptual framework (Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Environmental, and Legal) as an aide memoire to help define the scope of each scenario. This work was carried out under the auspices of the EU Horizon2020 project CERES (Climate change and European aquatic RESources), and for each 'CERES scenario' (World Markets, National Enterprise, Global Sustainability and Local Stewardship), additional quantitative outputs were generated, including projections of future fuel and fish prices, using the MAGNET (Modular Applied GeNeral EquilibriumTool) modeling framework. In developing and applying the CERES scenarios, we have demonstrated that the basic architecture is sufficiently flexible to be used at a wide diversity of scales. We urge the climate science community to adopt a similar scenarios framework, based around SSPs, to facilitate global cross-comparison of fisheries and aquaculture model outputs more broadly and to harmonize communication regarding potential future bioeconomic impacts of climate change.

Climate change is anticipated to have long-term and widespread direct consequences for the European marine ecosystems and subsequently for the European fishery sector. Additionally, many socio-economic and political factors linked to climate change scenarios will impact the future development of fishing industries. Robust projection modeling of bioeconomic consequences of climate change on the European fishing sector must identify all these factors and their potential future interaction. In this study, four socio-political scenarios developed in the EU project CERES (Climate change and European aquatic RESources) were operationalized and used in model projections of marine wild capture fisheries. Four CERES scenarios ("World Markets,""National Enterprise," "Global Sustainability" and "Local Stewardship") were based on the IPCC framework of Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs). For each of these scenarios, a set of quantitative outputs was generated to allow projections of bio-economic impacts to mid-century (2050) on wild-capture fisheries operating in different European regions. Specifically, projections accounted for future changes in fisheries management targets, access regulations, international agreements, fish and fuel prices, technological developments and marine spatial planning. This study thoroughly describes the elements of these four fisheries scenarios and demonstrates an example of the "regionalization" of these scenarios by summarizing how they were applied to the North Sea flatfish fishery. Bioeconomic projections highlight the importance of future developments in fuel and fish price development to the viability of that and other fisheries. Adapting these scenarios for use in other models and regions outside the 10 European fisheries examined in CERES would be highly beneficial by allowing direct comparison of the bioeconomic risks and opportunities posed by climate change.

This paper focuses on the availability of economic indicators and metrics to assess effects of marine aquaculture production in the North Atlantic area (the EU, Nor-way, Canada and USA), including also social and environmental effects. We con-sider how aquaculture planning and management is organised in the different countries and the usefulness of economic information to address different aqua-culture-related policies. We find that the most relevant economic data for aqua-culture management should be at the local and regional levels rather than nationally. The availability of such economic data is mapped for national, regional and local level. The focus is on data that are publicly available from authorities or research institutions. The availability of data is generally fairly good for national and regional data on the direct economic effects of aquaculture. Data on how aquaculture-related products or input markets are affected are however poorly available, as are economic data on external effects from aquaculture. Countries with a larger aquaculture sector tend to have better availability of aquaculture-re-lated economic data than those with a smaller sector. An index is developed and calculated to show more specifically where the countries have relatively good or poor data availability compared to their needs. While it will not always be cost-ef-fective or meaningful to collect economic data on the effects of aquaculture, our study indicates that several countries could benefit from expanding such data col-lection. It can make trade-off decisions more consistent and easier to perform, and aquaculture policies and measures can be better tailored to specific contexts.

In its third edition, the EU Blue Economy Report continues to analyse the scope and size of the Blue Economy in the European Union. It aims at providing support to policymakers and stakeholders in the quest for a sustainable development of oceans, coastal resources and, most notably, to the development and implemen-tation of polices and initiatives under the European Green Deal in line with the new approach for a sustainable Blue Economy. For the purposes of the Report, the Blue Economy includes all those activities that are marine-based or marine-related. Therefore, the Report examines not only established sectors (i.e. those that traditionally contribute to the Blue Economy) but also emerging (those for which reliable data are still developing) and innovative sectors, which bring new opportunities for investment and hold huge potential for the future development of coastal communities. Analyses are provided for the EU as a whole and by sector and industry for each Member State. The European Green Deal and the European Strategy for data will necessitate reliable, accurate and centralised data for its initiatives. This Report intends to serve as a useful input to assessing the potential of oceans and coasts for shifting to more sustainable economy and to supporting the development of policies in line with the strategic approach for a sustainable blue economy at all levels of governance. The third edition of the Report seeks to include new elements, which have an impact on the Blue Economy, including challenges like climate change, new sectors such as Submarine cables), enablers such as Maritime Spatial Planning, new areas of analysis such as Ecosystem Services or potential solutions like Multi-purpose platforms. The Blue Economy established sectors include the follow-ing seven sectors: Marine living resources, Marine non-living resources, Marine Renewable energy, Port activities, Shipbuilding and repair, Maritime transport and Coastal tourism. The analysis of these sectors is based on the data collected by the European Commission through Member States and the European Statistical System. Fisheries and aquaculture data were collected under the EU Data Collection Framework (DCF). Analyses for all other established sectors are based on Eurostat data from Structural Business Statistics (SBS), PRODCOM, National Accounts and tour-ism statistics.