Suchergebnisse

Population ageing has been going on for many decades, but population shrinking is a rather new phenomenon. The population of Germany, as in many other countries, has passed a plateau and is currently shrinking. Demographic change is a challenge for infrastructure planning due to the longevity of infrastructure capital and the need to match supply and demand in order to ensure cost-efficiency. This book summarises the findings of the INFRADEM project team, a multidisciplinary research group that worked together to estimate the effects of demographic change on infrastructure demand. Economists

Carbon Capture and Storage technologies (CCS) are moving from experiment toward commercial applications at a rapid pace, driven by urgent demand for carbon mitigation strategies. This book examines the potential role of CCS from four perspectives: technology development, economic competitiveness, environmental and safety impacts, and social acceptance. IEK-STE of Forschungszentrum Juelich presents this interdisciplinary study on CCS, based on methods of Integrated Technology Assessment. Following an introductory chapter by editor Wilhelm Kuckshinrichs, Part I of the book surveys the status of carbon capture technologies, and assesses the potential for research and development of applications that are useful at scales required for meaningful mitigation. Transportation, Utilization and Environmental Aspects of CO2 receive chapter-length treatments, and the section concludes with an examination of safe geological storage of CO2 based on the example of the Ketzin pilot site, not far from Berlin. Part II covers Economic and Societal Perspectives. The first chapter discusses the use of CCS in the energy sector, analyzing costs associated with electricity generation and CO2 mitigation on the basis of technology-specific cost and process parameters, along with a merit-order illustration of the possible implications of CCS facilities for energy costs. Later chapters outline the costs of CCS application in energy- and CO2-intensive industries; analyze system characteristics of CCS infrastructures, showing that the infrastructure cost function depends on the ratio of fixed to variable costs, as well as on the spatial distribution of CO2 sources and storage facilities; interpret cross-sector carbon mitigation strategies and their impacts on the energy and CO2 balance; and discuss awareness and knowledge of CCS, attitudes towards it, and how the risks and

The German Federal Government, in order to achieve its renewable energy targets, has promoted the deployment of solar PV. Small residential PV installations coupled with battery energy storage systems are gaining momentum, as the appeal of self-consumption has grown. We conducted an economic analysis to assess the profitability and optimal configuration of these technologies from the perspective of heterogeneous households that are subject to the current German regulatory framework. In this regard, we consider heterogeneous potential for the self-consumption of electricity (e.g. household size, energy efficiency), as well as heterogeneous financial (i.e. metrics, parameters, sources of financing) and fiscal (i.e. tax treatment, tax rate) aspects. We find that the use of alternative financial metrics (i.e. payback period, real internal rate of return and net present value) as criteria for evaluating profitability has a significant impact on the rankings of system configurations. Furthermore, fiscal aspects are crucial to assessing profitability and marginally relevant for optimal system configuration, while financial aspects are of great importance for both. Our results on optimal battery coupling (as opposed to stand-alone PV) show that rates of adoption range between 0% and 94% of the analyzed load profiles, following the variation of such finance-related dimensions (e.g. discount rates, inflation, debt versus equity financing). We conclude that such findings on the impact of such factors are highly relevant in terms of designing cost-efficient and effective policies that aim to foster energy transitions, both in Germany and elsewhere, especially at a time of very low interest rates.

The EU energy system is becoming increasingly integrated, with the pursuit of common energy and climate policies and the progression towards a single energy market. Interconnectors – cross-border power cables over which electricity is exchanged between countries – play an important part in this integrated energy market and enhance energy security. In 2016, around 7% of Britain's energy consumption was met through interconnectors with France and the Netherlands [Ward, 2016]. Moreover, there is substantial power trading between the Republic of Ireland and mainland Britain and between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. The vote for Brexit in 2016 has created uncertainty about the future expansion of these interconnectors [Buchan & Keay, 2016] and this has implications for the security and competitiveness of the UK's power supply, especially in the context of the phase out of coal power generation and uncertainty over the Hinkley Point C nuclear power plant project. In this paper, we address the question of the effect of reduced capacity through interconnectors, as a possible consequence of Brexit, on the British power system. The effect of reduced capacity on aspects including wholesale power prices in Britain and the import-export structures will be analyzed. A sensitivity analysis using the EMME electricity market model, developed in Forschungszentrum Jülich, will be undertaken to model the effects of a reduction of net transfer capacity through interconnectors on these different features of the power system. In particular, the EMME tool will allow the modelling of changes to the structure of the power trading relationships between Britain and other EU countries. The regional breakdown of the EMME model also enables an analysis of the modelled effects on different regions of the UK, namely Scotland, the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland.

Die energetische Sanierung von Wohngebäuden verspricht ein hohes Potenzial für den Klimaschutz. Zu den wesentlichen Initiativen der Bundesregierung zählt das CO2-Gebäudesanierungs programm der KfW, mit dem die energetische Sanierung von Gebäuden finanziell gefördert werden soll. Für eine Bewertung des Programms sind über die Aspekte einzelwirtschaftlicher Rentabilität von Energieeinsparung und CO2-Reduktion hinaus gesamtwirtschaftliche Fragen von Bedeutung: In welchem Ausmaß werden externe Umwelteffekte internalisiert? Zeigt das Programm konjunkturelle Wirkungen? Wie hoch ist der kurzfristige Budgeteffekt in den staatlichen Haushalten?

Alkaline water electrolysis (AWE) is a mature hydrogen production technology and there exists a range of economic assessments for available technologies. For advanced AWEs, which may be based on novel polymer-based membrane concepts, it is of prime importance that development comes along with new configurations and technical and economic key process parameters for AWE which might be of interest for further economic assessments. This paper presents an advanced AWE technology referring to 3 different sites in Europe (Germany, Austria, Spain). The focus is on financial metrics, the projection of key performance parameters of advanced AWEs, and further financial and tax parameters. For financial analysis from an investor's (business) perspective, a comprehensive assessment of a technology not only comprises cost analysis but also further financial analysis quantifying attractiveness and supply/market flexibility. Therefore, based on Cash Flow (CF) analysis, a comprehensible set of metrics may comprise Levelised Cost of Energy or, respectively, Levelised Cost of Hydrogen (LCH) for cost assessment, Net Present Value (NPV) for attractiveness analysis and Variable Cost (VC) for analysis of market flexibility. The German AWE site turns out to perform best in all three financial metrics (LCH, NPV, VC). Though there are slight differences in investment cost and operation and maintenance cost projections for the three sites, the major cost impact is due to the electricity cost. Although investment cost is slightly and labour cost is significantly lower in Spain, the difference can't outweigh the higher electricity cost compared to Germany. Given the assumption that the electrolysis operators are customers directly and actively participating in power markets, and based on the regulatory framework in the three countries, in this special case electricity cost in Germany is lowest. However, as electricity cost is profoundly influenced by political decisions as well as the implementation of economic instruments for transforming ...

Anfang 1999 wurde von der Programmgruppe STE des Forschungszentrums Jülich im Auftrag der KfW eine erste Studie mit dem Titel "$CO_{2}$-$\textit{Reduktion und Beschäftigungseffekte durch das CO$_{2}$-Minderungsprogramm der KfW}$" abgeschlossen [1, 2]. Ziel dieser Untersuchung war es, für die Laufzeit des Programms von 1996 bis Ende 1998 durch eine modellgestützte Analyse die folgenden Wirkungen zu schätzen: Energieeinsparung, CO$_{2}$- Minderung und Arbeitsplatzeffekte. Die Studie wurde als Langfassung in der Reihe "Schriften des Forschungszentrums Jülich" und als Kurzfassung in verschiedenen Zeitschriften veröffentlicht sowie auf einer Reihe von Veranstaltungen der Öffentlichkeit vorgestellt. Dabei zeigten eine Vielzahl von Fachleuten, Wissenschaftlern, Journalisten und politischen Entscheidungsträgern ein großes Interesse an den Ergebnissen. Inzwischen hat sich der Kreditrahmen erweitert und die Kreditbedingungen sind ebenfalls verändert worden. Seit Anfang 2001 wurde neben dem schon seit 1996 laufenden Programm ein weiteres Förderprogramm eingerichtet. Die beiden jetzt existierenden Programme heißen: $\bullet$ $\textbf{KfW-Programm zur CO$_{2}$-Minderung}$, im folgenden $\textbf{Programm96}$ genannt und $\bullet$ $\textbf{KfW-CO$_{2}$-Gebäudesanierungsprogramm}$, im folgenden $\textbf{Programm01}$ genannt. Der Untersuchungszeitraum der ersten Studie, der nur bis 1998 reicht, deckt die neueren Entwicklungen nicht mehr ab. Im Rahmen dieser zweiten Studie wird deshalb eine Aktualisierung und Anpassung an die veränderte Datenlage bis Ende 2001 durchgeführt. Darüber hinaus wird die Entwicklung bis 2010 prognostiziert. Angesichts der ungelösten Probleme im Klimaschutz und am Arbeitsmarkt zeichnet sich ab, dass die Nachfrage nach zuverlässigen, wissenschaftlichen Abschätzungen für CO$_{2}$- Minderungen und Arbeitsplatzeffekte im politischen Raum weiter steigen wird. Gerade der Altbaumodernisierung kommt dabei eine zentrale Rolle zu, weil hier große Einsparpotenziale vorliegen und weil gleichzeitig die ...

AbstractSustainability is a major issue in the automotive sector and players are at different points in their transition. Adopting a multi‐method approach, we identify the positioning of automotive manufacturers in relation to sustainability, highlighting the main foci of their sustainability strategies. This is achieved using a topic model based on automated language processing. Subsequently, we use a Seemingly Unrelated Regression model, applied to manufacturers' operational data, to establish the degree of alignment between sustainability strategies and operations. Results show that sustainability in the automotive sector is highly differentiated and manufacturers emphasize diverging topics in their communication strategy and have different production practices. In relation to sustainability reporting, we identify certain operational variables, which are significantly related with certain dominant sustainability narratives.

The German building sector is currently responsible for one third of the CO2 emissions and more than 40% of final energy consumption. Moreover, the German Federal Government's Energy Concept has set a target for Germany's building stock to be nearly climate-neutral by 2050. In order to achieve this ambitious target, a long-term road map for energy upgrades is necessary.We analyzed different strategies for reducing primary energy demand and CO2 emissions from residential building stock up to the year 2050. These strategies comprise the Federal Government´s energy concept measures on the one hand, and alternative paths and options using more renewable gases and innovative heating systems on the other. The calculations are based on the dynamic simulation model JEMS-BTS. The model simulates the effects of various energy efficiency measures such as thermal insulation and improvements to heating systems. The "business as usual" scenario represents measures which have already been implemented. Based on this scenario, we explored the energy concept scenario by applying stringent improvements to building codes and assuming large reductions in the energy use of existing buildings through energy renovations. In contrast, we analyzed an increased use of renewable gases, an early exchange of heating systems, and a forced use of low carbon heating systems in an alternative scenario.The results show that the primary energy demand and the CO2 emissions within the energy concept and the alternative scenarios could be reduced by more than 80% by 2050 and would lead to a climate-neutral building stock. The costs (Net present value) of the alternative scenario are much lower than in the energy concept scenario, resulting in much lower CO2 avoidance costs. Sensitivity analysis underlines the robustness of these results.

The German building sector is currently responsible for one third of the CO2 emissions and more than 40% of final energy consumption. Moreover, the German Federal Government's Energy Concept has set a target for Germany's building stock to be nearly climate-neutral by 2050. In order to achieve this ambitious target, a long-term road map for energy upgrades is necessary.We analyzed different strategies for reducing primary energy demand and CO2 emissions from residential building stock up to the year 2050. These strategies comprise the Federal Government´s energy concept measures on the one hand, and alternative paths and options using more renewable gases and innovative heating systems on the other. The calculations are based on the dynamic simulation model JEMS-BTS. The model simulates the effects of various energy efficiency measures such as thermal insulation and improvements to heating systems. The "business as usual" scenario represents measures which have already been implemented. Based on this scenario, we explored the energy concept scenario by applying stringent improvements to building codes and assuming large reductions in the energy use of existing buildings through energy renovations. In contrast, we analyzed an increased use of renewable gases, an early exchange of heating systems, and a forced use of low carbon heating systems in an alternative scenario.The results show that the primary energy demand and the CO2 emissions within the energy concept and the alternative scenarios could be reduced by more than 80% by 2050 and would lead to a climate-neutral building stock. The costs (Net present value) of the alternative scenario are much lower than in the energy concept scenario, resulting in much lower CO2 avoidance costs. Sensitivity analysis underlines the robustness of these results.

Input-Output analysis describes the dependence of production, demand and trade between sectors and regions and allows to understand the propagation of economic shocks through economic networks. A central challenge in practical applications is the availability of data. Observations may be limited to the impact of the shocks in few sectors, but a complete picture of the origin and impacts would be highly desirable to guide political countermeasures. In this article we demonstrate that a shock in the final demand in few sectors can be fully reconstructed from limited observations of production changes. We adapt three algorithms from sparse signal recovery and evaluate their performance and their robustness to observation uncertainties.

The UK's exit from the European Union (EU) has potential ramifications for the country's electricity sector, given its increasing interlinkage with other EU electricity systems. Brexit could hamper the development toward higher market integration and the realization of new interconnector projects. Moreover, a fall in the value of the Pound, resulting from Brexit in the medium term, could also affect the electricity trading structure. Combining a European electricity market model and a multi-criteria decision analysis tool, this study assesses the implications of Brexit for the electricity market of Great Britain (hereafter GB) for 2030, from the perspective of (i) political decision makers, (ii) electricity consumers, and (iii) producers. Results indicate that the implications of Brexit depend on the future development of the GB electricity system and on the objectives of the respective stakeholders. Possible opportunities brought by Brexit under a low-carbon trajectory contrast with greater challenges and tradeoffs between stakeholders under alternative power system development paths. Despite increased British autonomy in energy and climate matters, there remains interdependency between British and EU energy policy.