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AbstractThe paper aims to examine the ability of a global fear index (GFI) based on the COVID‐19 pandemic and government policy responses as a measure of uncertainty in predicting eight Indian rupee‐based exchange rate return series: the Australian dollar, the Canadian dollar, the Swiss franc, the US dollar, the euro, the British pound sterling, the New Zealand dollar, and the Japanese yen. The predictability of the daily Indian rupee‐based exchange rate return series is tested using the recently developed wild bootstrap likelihood ratio test of Kim and Shamsuddin for the period 2 October 2020 to 8 March 2021. Both symmetric and asymmetric tests revealed GFI as an insignificant determinant of the Indian rupee‐based exchange rate return series. However, government policy responses are a significant determinant of the rupee–dollar exchange rate return series.

The crisis and ensuing recession have led the global leaders to focus inwards. While the trend had taken off with countries having to face rising inequality and a focus towards self-development, there is little evidence besides newspaper articles to support this hypothesis from the Indian perspective. The results, using dynamic hierarchical factor model analysis, over a subset of 21 economies which account for 66% of India's trade, reveal that India's globalization has been withering away over time. Using time-varying parameter regression estimation on the domestic and factors loading, it is observed that the portion of growth explained by domestic factors is increasing over time and that of foreign factors is degrading. The study provides evidence of slowbalization in Indian economy. As the government looks forward to an era of self-reliance and Make in India, the results hold significance for the future growth trajectory of the Indian economy.

This study analyses factors affecting agricultural productivity in Ethiopia for the period of 1990–2016 by using autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model. Both the bounds test and the error correction model confirmed the existence of co-integration (long-run relationship) between the variables included in the model. The results revealed that cereal productivity is positively influenced by use of fertiliser and real gross domestic product (GDP) both in the long run and in the short run. While size of arable land influences productivity positively in the long run, its short-run effect was found to be negative. Hence, the government and other concerned authorities should work to enhance farmers' use of improved technologies, such as fertiliser, by ensuring its timely availability at an affordable price, encouraging farmers to participate on alternative sources of income such as off-farm activities and bringing additional area under cereal production to improve agricultural productivity.

Objectives: To assess and compare the changes in disability scores associated with Bipolar Depression (BD) and Unipolar Depression (UD) over 1 year. Methods: A longitudinal study was taken up in adults diagnosed with unipolar or bipolar depressive disorder with current depressive episode. Diagnosis was made according to Schedule for Clinical Assessment in Neuropsychiatry. Severity scoring was done using Hamilton's Depression (HAM-D) rating scale and Hamilton's Anxiety (HAM-A) rating scale. Disability was assessed using Indian Disability Evaluation and Assessment Scale (IDEAS) and London handicap Scale (LHS) at baseline, 6 and 12 months. Results: Sixty participants were recruited (42 UD and 18 BD). No significant differences were seen in socio-demographic parameters, except higher education levels and males being overrepresented in UD. Significant differences at baseline were seen in HAM-D ( p = .001) and HAM-A ( p = .003) scores. The extent of disability was seen to correlate with severity of illness only in case of BD at baseline. No significant differences were seen in the IDEAS scores at baseline. IDEAS score improved at each follow-up assessment ( p < .001). LHS showed significant improvement over time in UD ( p < .001), but not BD ( p = .076). Percentage individuals meeting cut-off for benchmark disability (>40%) were comparable at baseline but were significantly more in the BD at 12-months ( p = .049). Conclusion and implications: Disability in psychiatry occurs equally amongst unipolar and bipolar depressive disorders and tends to improve over time, although the level of improvement may differ. It may not always correspond to severity of illness. These factors should be considered while certifying disability.