Suchergebnisse

This variable indicates the quality of governancem, and is based on "Government Effectiveness" national level data set by World Bank. According to World Bank, this ind Governance data set contains annual data from 1990 to 2015. The index is country-spesific and thus not gridded. Global gridded data set with a spatial resolution of 5 arc-min, annual data from 1990 to 2015, and scaled from 0 to 1. Based on https://info.worldbank.org/governance/wgi/

While food security can be approached as a local issue, it is strongly influenced by factors at inter-regional and global scales related to production, transaction (e.g. trade and distribution) and consumption, and by drivers such as climate, population growth, diet change, as well as social, political and technological developments. Action on food security therefore benefits from being informed by current global patterns and potential future changes and taking an integrated approach to assessing impacts of proposed responses. Modelling can notably contribute by assessing the influence of various factors on food security. Due to the significant complexity and uncertainty involved, model development and use is simplified by approaching it as an exploratory process rather than aiming for a comprehensive historically accurate model. We present a macro-scale conceptual model to help structure and guide this exploration. We begin with the broad question "Will future developments achieve and maintain food security?" with the intent of exploring alternate possibilities of future developments, definitions of food security and factors influencing this question, beginning with assessing whether there is enough green and blue water to meet dietary energy requirements under typical current and future climatic variation. The conceptual model guides the selection of factors to explore sequentially through modelling (keeping other variables constant), iteratively building complexity as necessary. This helps to construct understanding using manageable building blocks, with the conceptual model evolving as it is used. The staged decomposition of this complex issue provides a framework to help build capacity for individuals and government agencies to understand their actions and policy respectively in a global context, with the hope that improving knowledge of adaptation options can help secure food supply to everyone.

While food security can be approached as a local issue, it is strongly influenced by factors at inter-regional and global scales related to production, transaction (e.g. trade and distribution) and consumption, and by drivers such as climate, population growth, diet change, as well as social, political and technological developments. Action on food security therefore benefits from being informed by current global patterns and potential future changes and taking an integrated approach to assessing impacts of proposed responses. Modelling can notably contribute by assessing the influence of various factors on food security. Due to the significant complexity and uncertainty involved, model development and use is simplified by approaching it as an exploratory process rather than aiming for a comprehensive historically accurate model. We present a macro-scale conceptual model to help structure and guide this exploration. We begin with the broad question "Will future developments achieve and maintain food security?" with the intent of exploring alternate possibilities of future developments, definitions of food security and factors influencing this question, beginning with assessing whether there is enough green and blue water to meet dietary energy requirements under typical current and future climatic variation. The conceptual model guides the selection of factors to explore sequentially through modelling (keeping other variables constant), iteratively building complexity as necessary. This helps to construct understanding using manageable building blocks, with the conceptual model evolving as it is used. The staged decomposition of this complex issue provides a framework to help build capacity for individuals and government agencies to understand their actions and policy respectively in a global context, with the hope that improving knowledge of adaptation options can help secure food supply to everyone.

| openaire: EC/H2020/819202/EU//SOS.aquaterra Funding Information: M.K. received financial support from the Academy of Finland projects WASCO (grant 305471), WATVUL (grant 317320), and TREFORM (grant 339834); the Academy of Finland SRC project ?Winland?; the Emil Aaltonen Foundation project ?eat-less-water?; and the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union's Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme (grant agreement 819202). M.H. and M.T. received financial support from Maa- ja Vesitekniikan Tuki Ry. M.H. was also supported by the Aalto University Engineering doctoral program. We appreciate the help of Johannes Piipponen with livestock production data. M.K. D.V. and M.H. designed the research with support from all co-authors. M.K. and D.V. compiled the Holdridge life zone mapping. M.H. and M.K. performed the spatial analyses with support from D.V. M.K. led the writing of the manuscript with contributions from all co-authors. We declare no competing financial interests. Funding Information: M.K. received financial support from the Academy of Finland projects WASCO (grant 305471 ), WATVUL (grant 317320 ), and TREFORM (grant 339834 ); the Academy of Finland SRC project "Winland"; the Emil Aaltonen Foundation project "eat-less-water"; and the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union's Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme (grant agreement 819202 ). M.H. and M.T. received financial support from Maa- ja Vesitekniikan Tuki Ry . M.H. was also supported by the Aalto University Engineering doctoral program. We appreciate the help of Johannes Piipponen with livestock production data. Publisher Copyright: © 2021 The Authors ; Food production on our planet is dominantly based on agricultural practices developed during stable Holocene climatic conditions. Although it is widely accepted that climate change perturbs these conditions, no systematic understanding exists on where and how the major risks for entering unprecedented conditions may occur. Here, we address this gap by introducing the concept of safe climatic space (SCS), which incorporates the decisive climatic factors of agricultural production: precipitation, temperature, and aridity. We show that a rapid and unhalted growth of greenhouse gas emissions (SSP5–8.5) could force 31% of the global food crop and 34% of livestock production beyond the SCS by 2081–2100. The most vulnerable areas are South and Southeast Asia and Africa's Sudano-Sahelian Zone, which have low resilience to cope with these changes. Our results underpin the importance of committing to a low-emissions scenario (SSP1–2.6), whereupon the extent of food production facing unprecedented conditions would be a fraction. ; Peer reviewed

| openaire: EC/H2020/819202/EU//SOS.aquaterra Funding Information: Marko Kallio and Vili Virkki were funded by the Aalto University School of Engineering Doctoral Programme. Marko Kallio additionally received funding from Maa-ja Vesitekniikan Tuki ry. Matti Kummu received funding from the Academy of Finland project WATVUL (grant no. 317320), Emil Aaltonen Foundation project eat-less-water, and European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (grant no. 819202) from which Vili Virkki received additional funding. Joseph H. A. Guillaume received funding from an Australian Research Council Discovery Early Career Researcher Award (project no. DE190100317) Funding Information: Financial support. Marko Kallio and Vili Virkki were funded by the Aalto University School of Engineering Doctoral Programme. Marko Kallio additionally received funding from Maa-ja Vesitekni-ikan Tuki ry. Matti Kummu received funding from the Academy of Finland project WATVUL (grant no. 317320), Emil Aaltonen Foundation project "eat-less-water", and European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (grant no. 819202) from which Vili Virkki received additional funding. Joseph H. A. Guillaume received funding from an Australian Research Council Discovery Early Career Researcher Award (project no. DE190100317). Publisher Copyright: © 2021 Marko Kallio et al. ; An increasing number of different types of hydrological, land surface, and rainfall-runoff models exist to estimate streamflow in river networks. Results from various model runs from global to local scales are readily available online. However, the usability of these products is often limited, as they often come aggregated in spatial units which are not compatible with the desired analysis purpose. We present here an R package, a software library Hydrostreamer v1.0, which aims to improve the usability of existing runoff products by addressing the modifiable area unit problem and allows non-experts with little knowledge of hydrology-specific modelling issues and methods to use them for their analyses. Hydrostreamer workflow includes (1) interpolation from source zones to target zones, (2) river routing, and (3) data assimilation via model averaging, given multiple input runoff and observation data. The software implements advanced areal interpolation methods and area-to-line interpolation not available in other products and is the first R package to provide vector-based routing. Hydrostreamer is kept as simple as possible - intuitive with minimal data requirements - and minimises the need for calibration. We tested the performance of Hydrostreamer by downscaling freely available coarse-resolution global runoff products from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) in an application in 3S Basin in Southeast Asia. Results are compared to observed discharges as well as two benchmark streamflow data products, finding comparable or improved performance. Hydrostreamer v1.0 is open source and is available from http://github.com/mkkallio/hydrostreamer/ (last access: 5 May 2021) under the MIT licence. ; Peer reviewed

| openaire: EC/H2020/819202/EU//SOS.aquaterra Funding Information: We acknowledge the use of data and/or imagery from NASA's Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS) ( https://earthdata.nasa.gov/firms ), part of NASA's Earth Observing System Data and Information System (EOSDIS). We warmly thank the Center for International Cooperation in Sustainable Management of Tropical Peatland (CIMTROP), University of Palangka Raya, for collaboration during our field visit and seminar in 2019. The study was funded by the Academy of Finland funded project WATVUL (grant no. 317320), European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (grant agreement no. 819202), Aalto University School of Engineering Doctoral Programme, and the Emil Aaltonen Foundation funded project "eat‐less‐water." Funding Information: We acknowledge the use of data and/or imagery from NASA's Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS) (https://earthdata.nasa.gov/firms), part of NASA's Earth Observing System Data and Information System (EOSDIS). We warmly thank the Center for International Cooperation in Sustainable Management of Tropical Peatland (CIMTROP), University of Palangka Raya, for collaboration during our field visit and seminar in 2019. The study was funded by the Academy of Finland funded project WATVUL (grant no. 317320), European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (grant agreement no. 819202), Aalto University School of Engineering Doctoral Programme, and the Emil Aaltonen Foundation funded project ?eat-less-water.? Publisher Copyright: © 2021 The Authors. Earth and Space Science published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Geophysical Union. ; Throughout Indonesia ecological degradation, agricultural expansion, and the digging of drainage canals has compromised the integrity and functioning of peatland forests. Fragmented landscapes of scrubland, cultivation, degraded forest, and newly established plantations are then susceptible to extensive fires that recur each year. However, a comprehensive understanding of all the drivers of fire distribution and the conditions of initiation is still absent. Here we show the first analysis in the region that encompasses a wide range of driving factors within a single model that captures the inter-annual variation, as well as the spatial distribution of peatland fires. We developed a fire susceptibility model using machine learning (XGBoost random forest) that characterizes the relationships between key predictor variables and the distribution of historic fire locations. We then determined the relative importance of each predictor variable in controlling the initiation and spread of fires. The model included land-cover classifications, a forest clearance index, vegetation indices, drought indices, distances to infrastructure, topography, and peat depth, as well as the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI). The model performance consistently scores highly in both accuracy and precision across all years (>75% and >67.5% respectively), though recall metrics are much lower (>25%). Our results confirm the anthropogenic dependence of extreme fires in the region, with distance to settlements and distance to canals consistently weighted the most important driving factors within the model structure. Our results may help target the root causes of fire initiation and propagation to better construct regulation and rehabilitation efforts to mitigate future fires. ; Peer reviewed

| openaire: EC/H2020/819202/EU//SOS.aquaterra Funding Information: The work was funded by ‐ , the Academy of Finland funded projects WATVUL (grant No. 317320) and TREFORM (grant no. 339834), and the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (grant agreement No. 819202). MH would like to acknowledge support from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation MERLIN grant (INV023682). Maa ja vesitekniikan tuki ry Publisher Copyright: © 2022 The Authors. Global Change Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. ; Although the role of livestock in future food systems is debated, animal proteins are unlikely to completely disappear from our diet. Grasslands are a key source of primary productivity for livestock, and feed-food competition is often limited on such land. Previous research on the potential for sustainable grazing has focused on restricted geographical areas or does not consider inter-annual changes in grazing opportunities. Here, we developed a robust method to estimate trends and interannual variability (IV) in global livestock carrying capacity (number of grazing animals a piece of land can support) over 2001–2015, as well as relative stocking density (the reported livestock distribution relative to the estimated carrying capacity [CC]) in 2010. We first estimated the aboveground biomass that is available for grazers on global grasslands based on the MODIS Net Primary Production product. This was then used to calculate livestock carrying capacities using slopes, forest cover, and animal forage requirements as restrictions. We found that globally, CC decreased on 27% of total grasslands area, mostly in Europe and southeastern Brazil, while it increased on 15% of grasslands, particularly in Sudano-Sahel and some parts of South America. In 2010, livestock forage requirements exceeded forage availability in northwestern Europe, and southern and eastern Asia. Although our findings imply some opportunities to increase grazing pressures in cold ...

Abstract. Water infrastructure development is considered necessary to drive economic
growth in the Mekong region of mainland Southeast Asia. Yet the current
understanding of hydrological and flood pattern changes associated with
infrastructural development still contains several knowledge gaps, such as
the interactions between multiple drivers, which may have serious
implications for water management, agricultural production, and ecosystem
services. This research attempts to conduct a cumulative assessment
of basin-wide hydropower dam construction and irrigation expansion, as well
as climate change, implications on discharge, and flood changes in the
Cambodian Mekong floodplain. These floodplains offer important
livelihoods for a considerable part of the 6.4 million people living on
them, as they are among the most productive ecosystems in the world –
driven by the annual flood pulse. To assess the potential future impacts, we
used an innovative combination of three models: Mekong basin-wide
distributed hydrological model IWRM-VMod, with the Mekong delta 1D flood
propagation model MIKE-11 and 2D flood duration and extent model IWRM-Sub
enabling detail floodplain modelling. We then ran scenarios to approximate
possible conditions expected by around 2050. Our results show that the
monthly and seasonal hydrological regimes (discharges, water levels, and
flood dynamics) will be subject to substantial alterations under future
development scenarios. Projected climate change impacts are expected to
decrease dry season flows and increase wet season flows, which is in
opposition to the expected alterations under development scenarios that
consider both hydropower and irrigation. The likely impact of decreasing
water discharge in the early wet season (up to −30 %) will pose a
critical challenge to rice production, whereas the likely increase in water
discharge in the mid-dry season (up to +140 %) indicates improved water
availability for coping with drought stresses and sustaining environmental
flows. At the same time, these changes would have drastic impacts on total
flood extent, which is projected to decline by around 20 %, having
potentially negative impacts on floodplain productivity and aquaculture,
whilst reducing the flood risk to more densely populated areas. Our findings
demonstrate the substantial changes that planned infrastructural development
will have on the area, potentially impacting important ecosystems and
people's livelihoods, calling for actions to mitigate these changes as well
as planning potential adaptation strategies.

Water scarcity has become a major constraint to socio‐economic development and a threat to livelihood in increasing parts of the world. Since the late 1980s, water scarcity research has attracted much political and public attention. We here review a variety of indicators that have been developed to capture different characteristics of water scarcity. Population, water availability, and water use are the key elements of these indicators. Most of the progress made in the last few decades has been on the quantification of water availability and use by applying spatially explicit models. However, challenges remain on appropriate incorporation of green water (soil moisture), water quality, environmental flow requirements, globalization, and virtual water trade in water scarcity assessment. Meanwhile, inter‐ and intra‐annual variability of water availability and use also calls for assessing the temporal dimension of water scarcity. It requires concerted efforts of hydrologists, economists, social scientists, and environmental scientists to develop integrated approaches to capture the multi‐faceted nature of water scarcity. ; ISSN:2328-4277

Water scarcity has become a major constraint to socio-economic development and a threat to livelihood in increasing parts of the world. Since the late 1980s, water scarcity research has attracted much political and public attention. We here review a variety of indicators that have been developed to capture different characteristics of water scarcity. Population, water availability and water use are the key elements of these indicators. Most of the progress made in the last few decades has been on the quantification of water availability and use by applying spatially explicit models. However, challenges remain on appropriate incorporation of green water (soil moisture), water quality, environmental flow requirements, globalization and virtual water trade in water scarcity assessment. Meanwhile, inter- and intra- annual variability of water availability and use also calls for assessing the temporal dimension of water scarcity. It requires concerted efforts of hydrologists, economists, social scientists, and environmental scientists to develop integrated approaches to capture the multi-faceted nature of water scarcity.

Water scarcity has become a major constraint to socio‐economic development and a threat to livelihood in increasing parts of the world. Since the late 1980s, water scarcity research has attracted much political and public attention. We here review a variety of indicators that have been developed to capture different characteristics of water scarcity. Population, water availability, and water use are the key elements of these indicators. Most of the progress made in the last few decades has been on the quantification of water availability and use by applying spatially explicit models. However, challenges remain on appropriate incorporation of green water (soil moisture), water quality, environmental flow requirements, globalization, and virtual water trade in water scarcity assessment. Meanwhile, inter‐ and intra‐annual variability of water availability and use also calls for assessing the temporal dimension of water scarcity. It requires concerted efforts of hydrologists, economists, social scientists, and environmental scientists to develop integrated approaches to capture the multi‐faceted nature of water scarcity.

Water scarcity has become a major constraint to socio-economic development and a threat to livelihood in increasing parts of the world. Since the late 1980s, waterscarcity research has attracted much political and public attention. We here review a variety of indicators that have been developed to capture different characteristics ofwater scarcity. Population, water availability and water use are the key elements of these indicators. Most of the progress made in the last few decades has been on thequantification of water availability and use by applying spatially explicit models. However, challenges remain on appropriate incorporation of green water (soil moisture), water quality, environmental flow requirements, globalization and virtual water trade in water scarcity assessment. Meanwhile, inter- and intra- annual variability of water availability and use also calls for assessing the temporal dimension of water scarcity. It requires concerted efforts of hydrologists, economists, social scientists, and environmental scientists to develop integrated approaches tocapture the multi-faceted nature of water scarcity.

The planetary boundaries framework defines the "safe operating space for humanity" represented by nine global processes that can destabilize the Earth System if perturbed. The water planetary boundary attempts to provide a global limit to anthropogenic water cycle modifications, but it has been challenging to translate and apply it to the regional and local scales at which water problems and management typically occur. We develop a cross‐scale approach by which the water planetary boundary could guide sustainable water management and governance at subglobal contexts defined by physical features (e.g., watershed or aquifer), political borders (e.g., city, nation, or group of nations), or commercial entities (e.g., corporation, trade group, or financial institution). The application of the water planetary boundary at these subglobal contexts occurs via two approaches: (i) calculating fair shares, in which local water cycle modifications are compared to that context's allocation of the global safe operating space, taking into account biophysical, socioeconomic, and ethical considerations; and (ii) defining a local safe operating space, in which interactions between water stores and Earth System components are used to define local boundaries required for sustaining the local water system in stable conditions, which we demonstrate with a case study of the Cienaga Grande de Santa Marta wetlands in Colombia. By harmonizing these two approaches, the water planetary boundary can ensure that water cycle modifications remain within both local and global boundaries and complement existing water management and governance approaches.