Suchergebnisse

Demographic forecasts constitute an important information input for economic and social policies, as well as for a spatial organisation, which areas are crucial from the point of view of the Warsaw agglomeration. The paper aims at evaluating the recent population forecast of the Central Statistical Office for the period 2003-2030 in the context of the expected population changes of the capital city. The analysis concentrates on three elements of a forecast: the demographic data, the model of population dynamics, and assumptions on particular components of population change. Regarding data, it is argued that the current system of population statistics in Poland does not provide credible information on population stocks and structures, which causes a bias in the estimation of intensity of demographic events. As the main problem comes from the incompatibility of definitions, appropriate changes in legislation seem to be necessary. With respect to the model, the forecast should be prepared using a multi-regional model rather than the cohort-component method. The assumptions underestimate the role of migration (especially internal immigration to and international emigration from Warsaw) in the demographic development of the city. Hence, authors are of the opinion that the forecasted decline of the Warsaw population from the (underestimated) 1,688 thousand in 2002 to 1,532 thousand in 2030 is not realistic. It is argued that a population forecast for Warsaw should consider the specificity of the capital city and the whole agglomeration, which is an important migration destination for labour force from other regions of Poland. According to international standards, such a forecast should be made for the resident population. The 2003-based population forecast of the Central Statistical Office does not meet these criteria and thus can be hardly used for socio-economic policy purposes, spatial organisation, and development plans for the city and the Warsaw agglomeration.

Mit Blick auf das Schengener Abkommen setzen sich die Autoren mit Fragen der Migration und Migrationspolitik in der Europäischen Union auseinander. (IAB)

Like almost all the European countries, Serbia is experiencing population ageing as a result of low fertility and increasing life expectancy. At the same time, economic activity rates there are lower than in many other countries. Negative natural change and emigration mean that Serbia's overall population is declining. Will these processes continue into the future? How might fertility, mortality and economic activity develop and what impact will this have on population and labour force size and structures? What effect might Serbia's potential membership of the European Union have? What, in particular, are the potential migration scenarios and their possible consequences? Which policies might be the most effective in counter-balancing population ageing and the potential labour deficit? To answer these questions, demographic experts from the Central European Forum for Migration and Population Research, IOM Warsaw and the Institute of Social Sciences in Belgrade conducted an impact study in order to provide a better understanding of the consequences of demographic and migratory trends for Serbia in the medium term, which is to say, thirty years. This publication gives an account of both the research conducted within that study and its results. In Chapter 2, the research methods adopted are described and the basic indicators defined. Chapter 3 contains an overview of past demographic, migratory and economic activity trends and a description of the assumptions for the future adopted in the forecasts. The forecast results, including a discussion of the impact of migration, are presented in Chapter 4. Chapter 5 considers various policy developments, while the Annex discusses selected issues in respect of data.