Suchergebnisse

En este artículo se hace un recorrido por los procesos electorales mexicanos para evidenciar cómo en su gran mayoría fueron muy poco competitivos. Empero, en los últimos años, a partir de un conjunto de modificaciones, se han vuelto más competitivos, dando lugar, entre otras cosas, a la aparición del fenómeno de la incertidumbre. Al predecir posibles resultados electorales,las encuestas y sondeos de opinión constituyen un medio para reducir esta incertidumbre. ; Analysis of Mexican electoral processes evidencing that most of them were hardly competitive until 1997. As of then, however, owing to a series of sociopolitical changes, they have become more competitive, resulting in, among other things, the emergence of the uncertainty phenomenon. By predicting possible electoral outcomes, opinion polls and surveys are the methodology to diminish uncertainty and determine liable winners.

Analyzes official presidential election results, 1928-2000, & several election studies in Mexico to demonstrate the growing significance of pre-election surveys & public opinion polls. Prior to 1997, the dominance of the ruling party nullified any type of pre-election surveys. Consistent gains by the leading opposition parties & the media's use of public opinion polls throughout the 1990s increased the amount of public interest in pre-election predictions. The interplay between politics, the mass media, & the public has now become crucial to the Mexican election process. Modeled after the US media-politics dynamic, Mexican political campaigns must be attuned to the role of surveys & polls in establishing public confidence. 7 Tables, 1 Figure, 20 References. Adapted from the source document.

Compares electoral processes and use of opinion polls and surveys in Mexico; concludes that since 1997, sociopolitical changes resulted in more competitive and uncertain elections; 1929-2000. Summary in English.