Suchergebnisse

In this paper, we argue and show how system dynamics modelling can be combined with exploratory modelling and analysis in order to address grand societal challenges, which are almost without exception characterized by dynamic complexity and deep uncertainty. Addressing such issues requires the systematic exploration of different hypotheses related to model formulation and model parametrization and their effect on the kinds of behavioral dynamics that can occur. Through two cases, we illustrate the combination of system dynamics and exploratory modelling. The first case illustrates its use for discovering different types of dynamics related to metal and mineral scarcity. The second case illustrates its use for worst‐case discovery in water scarcity. We conclude that exploratory system dynamics modelling represents a promising approach for addressing deeply uncertain dynamically complex societal challenges. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Societal ageing is a messy problem with diverging stakeholder views regarding the desirability of policy measures. In this paper, we use a System Dynamics model representing the Dutch demographic and social security system to investigate if and when Dutch governmental retirement and healthcare contributions become unaffordable. Following the Robust Decision Making approach, we then design and test policies for reducing the societal costs of ageing, taking into account societal support for these policies. We find that unaffordable societal ageing costs are mainly caused by declining productivity levels and increasing life expectancy: permanent increases in productivity are required to sustain the current social security level. We also find that the recently adopted Dutch retirement age policy is insufficiently robust and that focusing on increasing the actual instead of the formal retirement age may generate more public support. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.