Suchergebnisse

(1) Background: The vaccine supply is likely to be limited in 2021 due to constraints in manufacturing. To maximize the benefit from the rollout phase, an optimal strategy of vaccine allocation is necessary based on each country's epidemic status. (2) Methods: We first developed a heterogeneous population model considering the transmission matrix using maximum likelihood estimation based on the epidemiological records of individual COVID-19 cases in the Republic of Korea. Using this model, the vaccine priorities for minimizing mortality or incidence were investigated. (3) Results: The simulation results showed that the optimal vaccine allocation strategy to minimize the mortality (or incidence) was to prioritize elderly and healthcare workers (or adults) as long as the reproductive number was below [Formula: see text] (or over [Formula: see text]). (4) Conclusion: Our simulation results support the current Korean government vaccination priority strategy, which prioritizes healthcare workers and senior groups to minimize mortality, under the condition that the reproductive number remains below [Formula: see text]. This study revealed that, in order to maintain the current vaccine priority policy, it is important to ensure that the reproductive number does not exceed the threshold by concurrently implementing nonpharmaceutical interventions.

BACKGROUND: Understanding the seroprevalence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) can be a useful tool when studying spread of the disease. This study aimed to compare the prevalence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in 9954 recruits in the Korean Army Training Center with the general Korean population age <30 years between September and November, 2020. MATERIAL/METHODS: At the Korean Army Training Center, samples were taken from 9954 men from September to November, 2020. Participants were randomly enlisted healthy adult men. The data were compared with 4,205,265 samples from the Korean general population. Men age <30 years were used, as this is similar to the age range of the military recruits. RESULTS: Among military recruits, 31 subjects (0.31%) were positive for the antibody, while the Korean male population had 3757 (0.09%) positive individuals. Among these 31 men, 13 were previously diagnosed by PCR, while 18 (58.06%) had no history related to the disease. Positive military recruits were mostly from 2 regional clusters. The first cluster was Daegu and Gyeongbuk areas (1.97% and 0.80%, respectively), which had an outbreak in March, 2020. The second cluster was Gyeonggi and Seoul, or capital areas (0.23% and 0.20%, respectively), which currently has high PCR positivity. Overall, seroprevalence was 3.49 times higher in study subjects. CONCLUSIONS: The high seroprevalence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 between September and November 2020 in a densely populated military academy in Korea may have been an indicator for the resulting outbreak of COVID-19 in winter 2020–21, which highlights the importance of asymptomatic spread from the young and healthy to the general population.