Suchergebnisse

Se analiza los pronósticos de inflación, tipo de cambio, tasa de interés y crecimiento del PIB para horizontes de cortos plazo contenidos en la Encuesta sobre Expectativas de los Especialistas en Economía del Sector Privado que recaba mensualmente el Banco de México. El estudio se enfoca en el pronóstico de consenso para el periodo de enero de 1995 a abril de 2008. Se examina la eficiencia en el uso de información, así como el desempeño relativo de los pronósticos de la encuesta utilizando como referencia pronósticos sencillos de series de tiempo, macroeconómicos y financieros. Se encuentra que los pronósticos de consenso de los especialistas, en general, no superan pruebas de ausencia de sesgo, de ausencia de autocorrelación en exceso o de uso de información pública, lo que sugiere oportunidades para mejorar dichos pronósticos. Sin embargo, los pronósticos de consenso parecen ser, en general, más precisos que los pronósticos de referencia, aunque al analizar una muestra que empieza en enero de 2002 se encuentra que la precisión relativa de los pronósticos de consenso disminuye respecto a la de pronósticos sencillos.

AbstractElectoral coalitions between ideologically incompatible parties – among other unconventional electoral strategies – may seem to threaten effective representation, signaling a breakdown of programmatic politics. However, this perspective overlooks parties' and voters' dynamic considerations. We propose and estimate a model of dynamic electoral competition in which a short‐term ideology compromise, via an electoral coalition, offers opposition parties (and voters) the opportunity to remove an entrenched incumbent party from office, thus leveling the playing field in the future. This tradeoff provides a previously unrecognized rationale for coalition formation in elections. We take our model to data from Mexican municipal elections between 1995 and 2016 and show that coalitions between parties on opposite ends of the ideology spectrum have served as an instrument of democratic consolidation.

AbstractWe introduce a method for scaling two datasets from different sources. The proposed method estimates a latent factor common to both datasets as well as an idiosyncratic factor unique to each. In addition, it offers a flexible modeling strategy that permits the scaled locations to be a function of covariates, and efficient implementation allows for inference through resampling. A simulation study shows that our proposed method improves over existing alternatives in capturing the variation common to both datasets, as well as the latent factors specific to each. We apply our proposed method to vote and speech data from the 112th U.S. Senate. We recover a shared subspace that aligns with a standard ideological dimension running from liberals to conservatives, while recovering the words most associated with each senator's location. In addition, we estimate a word-specific subspace that ranges from national security to budget concerns, and a vote-specific subspace with Tea Party senators on one extreme and senior committee leaders on the other.

AbstractIn a randomized experiment in cooperation with two national parties competing in a congressional election in the Philippines, we estimate the causal effect on voting behavior of a town‐hall style campaign in which candidates discuss their campaign platform with small groups of citizens. Keeping the parties' platform fixed, we find that town‐hall meetings have a positive effect on parties' vote shares compared to the status quo, in which voters play a passive role. Consistent with the parties' advocacy for underprivileged groups, we observe heterogeneous effects by income, education, and gender. Deliberative campaigns increase voters' awareness on the issues parties campaign on, affecting the vote of the direct beneficiaries of the parties' platform.