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Abstract. Tsunamis induced by rock slides constitute a severe hazard towards coastal fjord communities. Fjords are narrow and rugged with steep slopes, and modeling the short-frequency and high-amplitude tsunamis in this environment is demanding. In the present paper, our ability (and the lack thereof) to simulate tsunami propagation and run-up in fjords for typical wave characteristics of rock-slide-induced waves is demonstrated. The starting point is a 1 : 500 scale model of the topography and bathymetry of the southern part of Storfjorden fjord system in western Norway. Using measured wave data from the scale model as input to numerical simulations, we find that the leading wave is moderately influenced by nonlinearity and dispersion. For the trailing waves, dispersion and dissipation from the alongshore inundation on the traveling wave become more important. The tsunami inundation was simulated at the two locations of Hellesylt and Geiranger, providing a good match with the measurements in the former location. In Geiranger, the most demanding case of the two, discrepancies are larger. The discrepancies may be explained by a combinations of factors, such as the accumulated errors in the wave propagation along large stretches of the fjord, the coarse grid resolution needed to ensure model stability, and scale effects in the laboratory experiments.

Abstract. This article focuses on the effect of dispersion in the field of tsunami modeling. Frequency dispersion in the linear long-wave limit is first briefly discussed from a theoretical point of view. A single parameter, denoted as "dispersion time", for the integrated effect of frequency dispersion is identified. This parameter depends on the wavelength, the water depth during propagation, and the propagation distance or time. Also the role of long-time asymptotes is discussed in this context. The wave generation by the two main tsunami sources, namely earthquakes and landslides, are briefly discussed with formulas for the surface response to the bottom sources. Dispersive effects are then exemplified through a semi-idealized study of a moderate-strength inverse thrust fault. Emphasis is put on the directivity, the role of the "dispersion time", the significance of the Boussinesq model employed (dispersive effect), and the effects of the transfer from bottom sources to initial surface elevation. Finally, the experience from a series of case studies, including earthquake- and landslide-generated tsunamis, is presented. The examples are taken from both historical (e.g. the 2011 Japan tsunami and the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami) and potential tsunamis (e.g. the tsunami after the potential La Palma volcanic flank collapse). Attention is mainly given to the role of dispersion during propagation in the deep ocean and the way the accumulation of this effect relates to the "dispersion time". It turns out that this parameter is useful as a first indication as to when frequency dispersion is important, even though ambiguity with respect to the definition of the wavelength may be a problem for complex cases. Tsunamis from most landslides and moderate earthquakes tend to display dispersive behavior, at least in some directions. On the other hand, for the mega events of the last decade dispersion during deep water propagation is mostly noticeable for transoceanic propagation.

Abstract. In this paper a local case study is presented in which detailed inundation simulations have been performed to support damage analysis and risk assessment related to the 2004 tsunami in Phang Nga and Phuket, Thailand. Besides tsunami sources, bathymetry and topography, bottom roughness induced by vegetation and built environment is considered to influence inundation characteristics, such as water depths or flow velocities and therefore attracts major attention in this work. Plenty of information available on the 2004 tsunami event, high-resolution satellite imagery and extensive field measurements to derive land cover information and forest stand parameters facilitated the generation of topographic datasets, land cover maps and site-specific Manning values for the most prominent land cover classes in the study areas. The numerical models ComMIT and Mike 21 FM were used to hindcast the observed tsunami inundation and to draw conclusions on the influence of land cover on inundation patterns. Results show a strong influence of dense vegetation on flow velocities, which were reduced by up to 50% by mangroves, while the inundation extent is influenced only to a lesser extent. In urban areas, the disregard of buildings in the model led to a significant overestimation of the inundation extent. Hence different approaches to consider buildings were used and analyzed in the model. The case study highlights the importance and quantifies the effects of considering land cover roughness in inundation simulations used for local risk assessment.

Abstract. On 11 March 2011 the Tohoku tsunami devastated the east coast of Japan, claiming thousands of casualties and destroying coastal settlements and infrastructure. In this paper tsunami generation, propagation, and inundation are modeled to hindcast the event. Earthquake source models with heterogeneous slips are developed in order to match tsunami observations, including a best fit initial sea surface elevation with water levels up to 8 m. Tsunami simulations were compared to buoys in the Pacific, showing good agreement. In the far field the frequency dispersion provided a significant reduction even for the leading wave. Furthermore, inundation simulations were performed for ten different study areas. The results compared well with run-up measurements available and trim lines derived from satellite images, but with some overestimation of the modeled surface elevation in the northern part of the Sanriku coast. For inundation modeling this work aimed at using freely available, medium-resolution data for topography, bottom friction, and bathymetry, which are easily accessible in the framework of a rapid assessment. Although these data come along with some inaccuracies, the results of the tsunami simulations suggest that their use is feasible for application in rapid tsunami hazard assessments. A heterogeneous source model is essential to simulate the observed distribution of the run-up correctly, though.

Abstract. The primary background for the present study was a project to assist the authorities in Thailand with development of plans for how to deal with the future tsunami risk in both short and long term perspectives, in the wake of the devastating 26 December 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake and tsunami. The study is focussed on defining and analyzing a number of possible future earthquake scenarios (magnitudes 8.5, 8.0 and 7.5) with associated return periods, each one accompanied by specific tsunami modelling. Along the most affected part of the western coast of Thailand, the 2004 tsunami wave caused a maximum water level ranging from 5 to 15 m above mean sea level. These levels and their spatial distributions have been confirmed by detailed numerical simulations. The applied earthquake source is developed based on available seismological and geodetic inversions, and the simulation using the source as initial condition agree well with sea level records and run-up observations. A conclusion from the study is that another megathrust earthquake generating a tsunami affecting the coastline of western Thailand is not likely to occur again for several hundred years. This is in part based on the assumption that the Southern Andaman Microplate Boundary near the Simeulue Islands constitutes a geologic barrier that will prohibit significant rupture across it, and in part on the decreasing subduction rates north of the Banda Ache region. It is also concluded that the largest credible earthquake to be prepared for along the part of the Sunda-Andaman arc that could affect Thailand, is within the next 50–100 years an earthquake of magnitude 8.5, which is expected to occur with more spatial and temporal irregularity than the megathrust events. Numerical simulations have shown such earthquakes to cause tsunamis with maximum water levels up to 1.5–2.0 m along the western coast of Thailand, possibly 2.5–3.0 m on a high tide. However, in a longer time perspective (say more than 50–100 years) the potentials for earthquakes of similar magnitude and consequences as the 2004 event will become gradually larger and eventually posing an unacceptable societal risk. These conclusions apply only to Thailand, since the effects of an M 8.5 earthquake in the same region could be worse for north-western Sumatra, the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, maybe even for Sri Lanka and parts of the Indian coastline. Moreover, further south along the Sunda arc the potentials for large ruptures are now much higher than for the region that ruptured on 26 December 2004.

Tsunamis are unpredictable and infrequent but potentially large impact natural disasters. To prepare, mitigate and prevent losses from tsunamis, probabilistic hazard and risk analysis methods have been developed and have proved useful. However, large gaps and uncertainties still exist and many steps in the assessment methods lack information, theoretical foundation, or commonly accepted methods. Moreover, applied methods have very different levels of maturity, from already advanced probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis for earthquake sources, to less mature probabilistic risk analysis. In this review we give an overview of the current state of probabilistic tsunami hazard and risk analysis. Identifying research gaps, we offer suggestions for future research directions. An extensive literature list allows for branching into diverse aspects of this scientific approach. © Copyright © 2021 Behrens, Løvholt, Jalayer, Lorito, Salgado-Gálvez, Sørensen, Abadie, Aguirre-Ayerbe, Aniel-Quiroga, Babeyko, Baiguera, Basili, Belliazzi, Grezio, Johnson, Murphy, Paris, Rafliana, De Risi, Rossetto, Selva, Taroni, Del Zoppo, Armigliato, Bureš, Cech, Cecioni, Christodoulides, Davies, Dias, Bayraktar, González, Gritsevich, Guillas, Harbitz, Kânoǧlu, Macías, Papadopoulos, Polet, Romano, Salamon, Scala, Stepinac, Tappin, Thio, Tonini, Triantafyllou, Ulrich, Varini, Volpe and Vyhmeister. ; This article is based upon work from COST Action CA18109 AGITHAR, supported by COST (European Cooperation in Science and Technology). VB and PC obtained support through the VES20 Inter-Cost LTC 20020 project. MS-G obtained support through the Severo Ochoa Centers of Excellence Program (Ref. CEX 2018–000797-S). TU acknowledges funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program (ChEESE project, Grant Agreement No. 823844).