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This discussion paper reviews the topical debate around the implications of innovative digital technologies for future patterns of competitiveness, employment, equality, the international division of labour and resource efficiency. It focusses on digital production technologies applied in the manufacturing sector and adopts a global economic perspective in a 10- to 15-year time horizon. The leading research questions are: How is the digital revolution likely to impact the future of industrialisation? How will it affect the relative positions of developed and developing countries in global competition? What are the implications for industrial policy? The paper frames the digitalisation discourse in the context of the changing nature and sequencing of industrialisation (specifically the debate around premature deindustrialisation), its role in latecomer development, and the increasingly complex and blurred intersection between manufacturing and services – the so-called servicification of manufacturing caused by a growing role of embedded and embodied services as well as new service-based business models. In its policy part, the paper contains a detailed case study of the German "Industrie 4.0" strategy and platform. Following a briefer comparative look at similar approaches in selected countries as well as the coordination and harmonisation efforts at the level of the European Union, the paper derives more general conclusions on the role of industrial policy in steering the digital revolution in a socially desirable direction, preventing damaging consequences and promoting its positive impact. Special attention is given to the renewed significance of technology foresight exercises. Finally, the paper provides an outlook on the implications of the digital revolution for the prospects of latecomer industrialisation and the challenges that developing countries in particular are facing.

This discussion paper reviews the topical debate around the implications of innovative digital technologies for future patterns of competitiveness, employment, equality, the international division of labour and resource efficiency. It focusses on digital production technologies applied in the manufacturing sector and adopts a global economic perspective in a 10- to 15-year time horizon. The leading research questions are: How is the digital revolution likely to impact the future of industrialisation? How will it affect the relative positions of developed and developing countries in global competition? What are the implications for industrial policy?The paper frames the digitalisation discourse in the context of the changing nature and sequencing of industrialisation (specifically the debate around premature deindustrialisation), its role in latecomer development, and the increasingly complex and blurred intersection between manufacturing and services – the so-called servicification of manufacturing caused by a growing role of embedded and embodied services as well as new service-based business models.In its policy part, the paper contains a detailed case study of the German "Industrie 4.0" strategy and platform. Following a briefer comparative look at similar approaches in selected countries as well as the coordination and harmonisation efforts at the level of the European Union, the paper derives more general conclusions on the role of industrial policy in steering the digital revolution in a socially desirable direction, preventing damaging consequences and promoting its positive impact. Special attention is given to the renewed significance of technology foresight exercises. Finally, the paper provides an outlook on the implications of the digital revolution for the prospects of latecomer industrialisation and the challenges that developing countries in particular are facing.

Japan's meteoric economic rise, the hardly less impressive growth of a number of newly industrialised countries in South-East Asia and the enormous mineral wealth of the region have long caused academic and political observers to show keen interest in the economies of the Pacific. Proposals for institutionalised economic cooperation in this region have been under discussion since the mid sixties but have increased in number and significance in recent years; this paper analyses their objectives, limitations and chances.

Das Pazifische Becken hat in jüngster Zeit unter ökonomischen wie auch unter politisch-strategischen Aspekten für die Vereinigten Staaten ganz erheblich an Bedeutung gewonnen. Wirtschaftlich wird dieser Raum unter Berufung auf prominente Autoren wie Arnold Toynbee und Herman Kahn, die das unausweichliche Nahen eines pazifischen Zeitalters prognostiziert haben, nicht nur als kommendes Zentrum der Weltwirtschaft bezeichnet. Bereits heute ist das Pazifische Becken im Gefolge des Aufstiegs Japans zu einer wirtschaftlichen Supermacht und angesichts der Vielzahl dynamischer Schwellenländer zu einem regionalen Gravitationszentrum interdependenter wirtschaftlicher Aktivitäten geworden, dessen Gewicht kaum überschätzt werden kann. Darüber hinaus treffen hier die Ambitionen und Interessen dreier Atommächte - der USA, der UdSSR und der Volksrepublik China - unmittelbar aufeinander, die offenbar zunehmend die politische und strategische Bedeutung dieses Raumes erkennen und in Rechnung stellen.

When Alice in Wonderland wonders which way she should take, the Cheshire Cat responds that it depends on where she wants to go! Researchers and policy-makers considering a country's long-term development path also have to know where they want to go. Typically, they seek to determine the realistic growth potentials for a country's economy and how to reach them, and identify the key assets that could make the country competitive and the economic sectors that should be prioritised to drive structural change. Most critically, they have to find out how to reconcile narrow goals regarding com­petitive­ness and productivity with broader goals related to social inclusive­ness and environmental sustainability. The challenge is to design a methodology for evidence-based anticipation of future competitive advantages that merit industrial policy measures. The sectors that could create viable growth must be understood. Identifying a country's competitive advantage in five to 10 years presents a thorny methodological challenge and a complex set of factors to consider, including: avail­able domestic resources, institutional capabilities, production costs relative to other countries, geographic conditions, the country's position within the global trade and investment system (including expected changes in relevant regulatory regimes), and also long-term shifts towards new technological domains. More often than not, the analytical, conceptual and institutional preconditions for such an exercise exceed the capabilities of developing countries and constitute a core area of advisory services provided by develop­ment cooperation partners. Against this backdrop, we explore three aspects of possible methodologies: 1. The strengths and weaknesses of various contempo­rary methodologies, all of which fail to include im­portant determinants of future competitive ad­van­tages. Since they do shed light on various comple­men­tary aspects, however, we suggest combining them to create a more complete picture of emerging opportunities. 2. The growing role of disruptive structural change. We are already confronted with radical and rapid structural change that impacts virtually all economic sectors and disrupts the prevailing techno-economic trajectory (seemingly the case for both decarboni­sation and digitalisation). What are the method­logical implica­tions for predicting future competitive advantages? We recommend a stronger emphasis on using 'open' qualitative forecasting methods. 3. Evidence-based approaches for measuring compete­tiveness and anticipating its future direction must be embedded into a political economy framework that connects analytical tools to societal objectives and accounts for the different imple­mentation capabilities of various countries. Essentially, we argue that there is no 'silver bullet' method­o­logy for predicting emerging patterns of competitiveness. However, a variety of tools can be used to reduce the number of promising options and inform policy-makers about how to exploit emerging opportunities.

In recent years, there has been a powerful trend on the global scene and above all in the Asian region for the private sector in general and private industry in particular to assume a growing, and indeed leading, role in economic and industrial development. This article reviews some recent trends of private investment and privatization policies pursued in selected Asian countries and discusses the implications of private sector-led industrial development for the role of governments and international organizations.