Aufsatz(gedruckt)#11976
PREDICTION ANALYSIS IN POLITICAL RESEARCH
In: American political science review, Band 70, Heft 2, S. 509-535
ISSN: 0003-0554
PROCEDURES FOR EMPIRICAL TESTS OF POLITICAL THEORY SHOULD BE DESIGNED TO EVALUATE THE SUCCESS OF THE SPECIFIC PREDICTION BEING TESTED. THIS PAPAER INTRODUCES(1) A FORMAL LANGUAGE, "PREDICTION LOGIC"; (2)A POPULATION MEASURE, (3) PARTIAL MEASURES FOR THE MULTIVARIATE CASE; (4)BIVARIATE STATISTICAL INFERENCE MEASURES WHEN THE DATA ARISE FROM A SAMPLE RATHER THAN A POPULATION.