Suchergebnisse

This article aims to explore the credibility of future US extended nuclear assurance in Asia. Extended nuclear assurance, all too frequently confused with extended nuclear deterrence, faces a daunting series of challenges: a US strategic mainstream fractured on the roles and purposes of nuclear weapons; an Asia where assurance demands are high during a period of strategic uncertainty; and a US theatre- and tactical-range nuclear arsenal much depleted from its heyday. Meanwhile, nuclear latency is growing in Asia as more countries reach the technological level that the US attained in 1945, as nuclear skill sets become more prevalent, and as delivery vehicles appropriate to nuclear weapons become more typical in regional arsenals. The US now provides extended nuclear assurance to nearly 40 countries worldwide, agreeing to run nuclear risks on behalf of its allies and friends. The bulk of those assurances derive from the NATO alliance, but it is the non-NATO-related assurances-and settings-that seem likely to be the more controversial ones over the next decade or two. Asia is coming into its own at a time when extended nuclear assurance needs reinvigoration as a key ingredient in US strategic policy. (International Affairs (Oxford) / SWP)

This ARI deals with the key decisions on strategic priorities to be adopted by the new Australian Labor Government. The Australian Labor Party came into power in November 2007 after a decade of shadow responsibilities on strategic matters. Now in power, its 'more of the same' approach to security and defence promised during the elections is facing new challenges. Some of the key ministers are almost newcomers to the strategic community and they will have to manage a controversial divide between those supporting a return to traditional defence priorities and those in favour of continuing the shift towards a broader security policy. The design of a new strategic policy is a demanding task that requires the definition and 'operationalising' of a new agenda. This ARI deals with the key decisions to be adopted by the new Australian Labor Government regarding the orderly withdrawal of Australian ground forces from Iraq in 2008, the production of a new White Paper on Defence –and perhaps National Security as well–, strategic and procurement priorities, the Australia–US relationship and the tensions between Australia's global and regional roles.

The first half of 2001 saw traditional issues dominating the foreign policy agenda, with both Australia's relationship with the United States and the policy of Asian engagement still holding centre stage. But those old issues generated fresh anxieties. In the United States, the incoming Bush administration displayed a genuine radicalism in its approach to foreign policy, and that raised concerns in many Western capitals — including Canberra — about a new mood of unilateralism in Washington. At the same time, the emergence of the thesis that Australia was becoming a "branch office economy", where key decisions were taken in the capital markets of New York and London, made the government noticeably more cautious and selective in its endorsement of globalisation. Further, the issue of Asian engagement grew steadily more complex: Australian policy‐makers searched unsuccessfully for a new focus for the policy of Asian engagement, as Japan's economy wallowed and Indonesia's democratic government tottered.

An analysis of Australia's foreign policy agenda during the first half of 2001 maintains it was dominated by the relationship with the US & Asian engagement. Although Prime Minister John Howard openly opposed the election of George W. Bush, considerable effort was given to establishing a good working relationship with the Bush administration. However, US actions, including withdrawal from the Kyoto protocol, heightened concerns about a new attitude of unilateralism in Washington. Australia's keen interest in pursuing a bilateral free trade agreement with the US is discussed, along with worries about the state of the Australian-Japan relationship, & problems related to engagement with the People's Republic of China due to Chinese suspicions stemming from their perception of Australia as a Western ally of the US. Other issues examined include attempts to build a better relationship with India, & smaller foreign policy issues, including tensions with New Zealand over the reshaping of the Defense Force; Australia's detention policies for asylum seekers; & other immigration matters. The continuing importance of defining a national identity is discussed. J. Lindroth