Suchergebnisse

We compute joint sovereign default probabilities as coincident systemic risk indicators. Instead of commonly used CDS spreads, we use government bond yield data which provide a longer data history. We show that for the more recent sample period 2008-2015, joint default probabilities based on CDS and bond yield data yield similar results. For the period 1987-2008, only the bond yield data can be used to shed light on European sovereign systemic stress. We also show that simple averages of rolling pairwise correlations do not always yield intuitive systemic risk indicators.

Normative ideals for 'good water management' have proliferated the last twenty years. However, evidence of effective implementation is scarce. This paper analyzes cases from India, the Mekong and Denmark where attempts have been made to translate water management ideals into practice. The purpose is to demonstrate the importance of politics and power for water management processes and their outcomes. The concept of social learning is applied in order to understand the dynamic interplay between actors, institutions and power in the political processes involved. It is argued that the political economy of water tends to vest the stronger stakeholders with an interest in upholding the status quo. Consequently, social learning typically centers on the 'low lying fruits' that does not challenge the prevailing distribution of resources. The authors, Kurt Mørck Jensen, Rane Baadsgaard Lange, and Jens Christian Refsgaard argue that strategic approaches looking outside the 'water box' are necessary to foster deeper changes in water resources management in both developing and developed countries.

Transcatheter aortic valve implantation was developed to mitigate the mortality and morbidity associated with high-risk traditional aortic valve replacement. The Edwards SAPIEN valve was approved for transcatheter aortic valve implantation transfemoral delivery in the European Union in November 2007 and for transapical delivery in January 2008.The SAPIEN Aortic Bioprosthesis European Outcome (SOURCE) Registry was designed to assess the initial clinical results of the Edwards SAPIEN valve in consecutive patients in Europe after commercialization. Cohort 1 consists of 1038 patients enrolled at 32 centers. Patients who were treated with the transapical approach (n=575) suffered more comorbidities than the transfemoral patients (n=463), resulting in a significantly higher logistic EuroSCORE (29.1% versus 25.7%; P<0.001). Therefore, these groups are considered different, and outcomes cannot be compared. Overall short-term procedural success was observed in 93.8%. The incidence of valve embolization was 0.3% (n=3), and coronary obstruction was reported for 0.6% (n=6 cases). Incidence of stroke was 2.5% and similar for both procedural approaches. Thirty-day mortality was 6.3% in transfemoral patients and 10.3% in transapical patients. The occurrence of vascular complications was not a predictor of<30-day mortality in the transfemoral population.Technical proficiency can be learned and adapted readily as demonstrated by the short-term procedural success rate and low 30-day mortality rates reported in the SOURCE Registry. Specific complication management and refinement of patient selection are needed to further improve outcomes.

19 pages, 9 figures, 1 table ; Aerosols are an integral part of the Arctic climate system due to their direct interaction with radiation and indirect interaction through cloud formation. Understanding aerosol size distributions and their dynamics is crucial for the ability to predict these climate relevant effects. When of favourable size and composition, both long-rangetransported-and locally formed particles-may serve as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN). Small changes of composition or size may have a large impact on the low CCN concentrations currently characteristic of the Arctic environment. We present a cluster analysis of particle size distributions (PSDs; size range 8-500 nm) simultaneously collected from three high Arctic sites during a 3-year period (2013-2015). Two sites are located in the Svalbard archipelago: Zeppelin research station (ZEP; 474 m above ground) and the nearby Gruvebadet Observatory (GRU; about 2 km distance from Zeppelin, 67 m above ground). The third site (Villum Research Station at Station Nord, VRS; 30 m above ground) is 600 km west-northwest of Zeppelin, at the tip of northeastern Greenland. The GRU site is included in an inter-site comparison for the first time. K-means cluster analysis provided eight specific aerosol categories, further combined into broad PSD classes with similar characteristics, namely pristine low concentrations (12 %-14 % occurrence), new particle formation (16 %-32 %), Aitken (21 %-35 %) and accumulation (20 %-50 %). Confined for longer time periods by consolidated pack sea ice regions, the Greenland site GRU shows PSDs with lower ultrafine-mode aerosol concentrations during summer but higher accumulation-mode aerosol concentrations during winter, relative to the Svalbard sites. By association with chemical composition and cloud condensation nuclei properties, further conclusions can be derived. Three distinct types of accumulation-mode aerosol are observed during winter months. These are associated with sea spray (largest detectable sizes, > 400 nm), Arctic haze (main mode at 150 nm) and aged accumulation-mode (main mode at 220 nm) aerosols. In contrast, locally produced particles, most likely of marine biogenic origin, exhibit size distributions dominated by the nucleation and Aitken mode during summer months. The obtained data and analysis point towards future studies, including apportioning the relative contribution of primary and secondary aerosol formation pro cesses and elucidating anthropogenic aerosol dynamics and transport and removal processes across the Greenland Sea. In order to address important research questions in the Arctic on scales beyond a singular station or measurement events, it is imperative to continue strengthening international scientific cooperation ; This research has been supported by the Spanish Ministry of Economy through project BIO-NUC (CGL2013-49020-R), PI-ICE (CTM2017-89117-R) and the Ramon y Cajal fellowship (RYC-2012-11922). The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement no. 654109, the Danish Council for Independent Research (project NUMEN, DFF-FTP-4005-00485B) and previously from the European Union Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) under grant agreement no. 262254. The work at Villum Research Station, Station Nord, was financially supported by the Danish Environmental Protection Agency via the MIKA/DANCEA funds for Environmental Support to the Arctic Region. The Villum Foundation funded the construction of Villum Research Station, Station Nord. CCN measurements are supported by a KOPRI program (PN19081), funded by a National Research Foundation of Korea grant (NRF-2016M1A5A1901769). The authors acknowledge financial support (to David C. S. Beddows) from the Natural Environment Research Council's funding of the National Centre for Atmospheric Science (NCAS) (grant number R8/H12/83/011) ; Peer Reviewed