Suchergebnisse

Current approaches to violence risk assessment are focused on the identification of factors that are predictive of future violence rather than factors that predict desistance. This is also true for the popular tools designed to predict adolescent sexual recidivism. Research on strengths-based variables with adolescents who have sexually offended that could serve a protective function is only recently underway. In the current prospective study, scores from clinician-completed assessments using the Estimate of Risk of Adolescent Sexual Offense Recidivism (ERASOR) and the parent-completed form of the Behavioral and Emotional Rating Scale (BERS-2) were evaluated in a sample of 81 adolescent males with at least one sexual offense. As expected, the ERASOR was significantly correlated with sexual recidivism over an average 3.5-year follow-up. In terms of a protective function, the Affective Strength scale of the BERS-2 was significantly negatively correlated with sexual recidivism, although it did not have incremental validity over and above the ERASOR. The BERS-2 School Functioning scale was significantly negatively correlated with nonsexual recidivism. The results are discussed in terms of previous findings and theoretical work on attachment in sexual offending behavior and implications for risk assessment practice.

Associations between self-reported coercive sexual behavior against adult females, childhood sexual abuse (CSA), and child–parent attachment styles, as well as attachment with adult romantic partners, were examined among 176 adult community males. Attachment style with each parent and with romantic partners was also investigated as a potential moderator. Using hierarchical multiple regression analysis, avoidant attachment with mothers in childhood (and also with fathers, in a second model) accounted for a significant amount of the variance in coercive sexual behavior controlling for scores on anxious ambivalent and disorganized/disoriented attachment scales, as predicted. Similarly, in a third model, avoidance attachment in adulthood was a significant predictor of coercive sexual behavior controlling for scores on the anxiety attachment in adulthood scale. These main effects for avoidant and avoidance attachment were not statistically significant when CSA and control variables (other types of childhood adversity, aggression, antisociality, and response bias) were added in each of the models. But the interaction between scales for CSA and avoidance attachment in adulthood was significant, demonstrating incremental validity in a final step, consistent with a hypothesized moderating function for attachment in adulthood. The correlation between CSA and coercive sexual behavior was .60 for those with the highest third of avoidance attachment scores (i.e., the most insecurely attached on this scale), .24 for those with scores in the middle range on the scale, and .01 for those with the lowest third of avoidance attachment scores (i.e., the most securely attached). Implications for study design and theory were discussed.

Principal components analysis was conducted on items contained in actuarial instruments used with adult sex offenders, including: the Rapid Assessment of Sex Offender Risk for Recidivism (RASORR), the Static-99, the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (VRAG), the Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide (SORAG), and the Minnesota Sex Offender Screening Tool-Revised (MnSOST-R). In a data set that included child molesters and rapists (N = 311), six interpretable components were identified: Antisocial Behavior, Child Sexual Abuse, Persistence, Detached Predatory Behavior, Young and Single, and Male Victim(s). The RRASOR was highly correlated with Persistence, and the VRAG and SORAG were highly correlated with Antisocial Behavior. Antisocial Behavior was a significant predictor of violent recidivism, while Persistence and Child Sexual Abuse were significant predictors of sexual recidivism.

This study examined the relationship between recidivism and ratings of response to specialized cognitive behavioral treatment conducted in a prison setting among 418 sex offenders released to the community for an average follow-up period of over 5 years. As well as testing for a main effect for treatment ratings, the potential role of psychopathy assessed using the Psychopathy Checklist-Revised (PCL-R) as a moderator of response to treatment was investigated. Ratings of response to treatment failed to predict either serious (violent including sexual) or sexual recidivism. For the more inclusive outcome of serious recidivism, there was no significant interaction between psychopathy and treatment ratings; however, the ubiquitous effect of psychopathy on recidivism was found to be significant. For sexual recidivism, psychopathy was not significant as a main effect, but a significant interaction between psychopathy and treatment ratings was found. Among sex offenders with PCL-R scores of 25 or higher, those with ratings reflecting a more negative response to treatment recidivated sexually at a faster rate than others. This interaction effect was not significant when treatment noncompleters were removed from the data set. The results were discussed in terms of the methodology involved in the assessment of response to treatment among sex offenders.

The present study aimed to revise the Vermont Assessment of Sex Offender Risk (VASOR) Reoffense Risk Scale, a commonly used sex offender risk assessment tool. The revised tool was named the VASOR-2. Among models tested to revise the scale, a logistic regression model showed the best balance between simplicity of use, goodness of fit, and internal validity (as tested with K-10 cross-validation), and maximized predictive accuracy. Predictive accuracy was tested using four meta-analytically combined data sets drawn from Canada and Vermont ( N = 1,581). At 5-year fixed follow-up, the predictive accuracy for sexual recidivism for VASOR-2 ( AUC = .74) was similar to the VASOR ( AUC = .71). The findings show the VASOR-2 is well calibrated with observed recidivism rates for all but the highest risk sex offenders. The instrument showed good interrater reliability ( ICC = .88). An advantage of the VASOR-2 is that it has fewer items and simpler scoring instructions than the VASOR. Norms are presented for a contemporary, nonselected, routine sample of Vermont sex offenders ( n = 887).