Suchergebnisse

Tunisia was showcased for a long time as an example of poverty reduction achievement and pro-poor growth. Yet, after halving its poverty rates a revolution took the world by surprise early in 2011 and since then nothing is known about its poverty levels. To fill that gap, this analysis develops and compares multiple cross-survey micro imputations (using household budgetary and labor force surveys) with macro poverty projections (based on sector GDP, unemployment and inflation). Results from both techniques are robust: poverty in post revolution Tunisia first increased in 2011 to then decrease in 2012. The magnitude of this swing oscillates between 1 and 2.3 percent points and accrues mostly from urban areas. Methods using readily available macro administrative data provide estimates of poverty levels and trends very close to those provided by analytically more sophisticated and data demanding micro imputation techniques. These findings for Tunisia provide relevant insights in data deprived contexts with serious deficiencies in the frequency and accessibility of welfare statistics.

This study looks at the redistributive effects of fiscal policy -- in particular of direct taxation and expenditures -- in Uruguay. This fiscal incidence analysis applies a widely recognized methodology to household survey data and government data for fiscal year 2017 and compares the results with the policies seen in 2009 to study the evolution of the distributional impacts of fiscal policy in the country. The study finds evidence that Uruguayan fiscal policy continues to reduce inequality, with government expenditures in the form of in-kind transfers leading to the largest decreases. While expenditures in basic education are benefitting the poorest, expenditures in tertiary education remain largely regressive. The personal income tax is found to be largely progressive, with the top quintile paying more than four-fifths of this tax. Uruguay's fiscal policies also lead to a reduction in poverty, mainly due to well-targeted direct transfers.

This study analyzes the extent of downward bias in the calculation of inequality of opportunity for continuous outcomes such as income. A typically recognized source of bias is the unobserved circumstances as there is a limited set of variables available in household and labor force surveys. Another previously overlooked source is the likely unobservable nature of top incomes. Using Monte Carlo simulations where the underlying inequality of opportunity is predetermined at various levels, the study presents three key findings. First, the omission of a relevant circumstance can bias the inequality of opportunity estimate by as much as 80 percent, depending on how much variation of the outcome such circumstance explains. Second, not observing the top 5 percent of the income distribution can lead to downward biases of anywhere between 12 and 35 percent, and the combination of missing the most favored population and even one relevant circumstance exacerbates the bias of the empirical estimates. The third key result is that the estimated inequality of opportunity is strongly correlated with the amount of variation in the outcome variable explained by the combination of circumstances (measured by the R2). This result suggests that in empirical applications, the inequality of opportunity estimate can be roughly (and quickly) approximated using simple econometric techniques.

This paper attempts to determine the extent to which inequality in wage earnings in the Russian Federation is unfair. Unlike other similar attempts that can, at best, produce a lower bound on the estimate of the share of inequality that is unfair, this paper exploits the longitudinal nature of the data to come up with a lower bound as well as an upper bound. The upper bound is further refined to take into account the indirect effect of circumstances at birth (gender, parental wealth, etc.) on effort. Results show that the upper bound on the inequality of opportunity may be three to four times the measured lower bound and significantly higher for females than males in the sample. Finally, comparison with the United States and Germany show that although total inequality is lower in Russia, the share of unfair inequality is distinctly larger. The markedly large explanatory role of extraneous factors, such as gender and parental characteristics, in wage inequality calls for a close examination of governments' efforts to address inequities in the labor market.

Financial education programs are increasingly offered by governments, nonprofits, and financial institutions. However, voluntary participation rates in such programs are often very low, posing a severe challenge for randomized experiments attempting to measure their impact. This study uses a large experiment on more than 100,000 credit card clients in Mexico. The study shows how the richness of financial data allows combining nonexperimental methods with the experiment to yield credible measures of impact, even with take-up rates below 1 percent. The findings show that a financial education workshop and personalized coaching result in a higher likelihood of paying credit cards on time, and of making more than the minimum payment, but do not reduce spending, resulting in higher profitability for the bank.

This study assesses the redistributive impact of fiscal policy –– including expenditures and taxation –– in the Arab Republic of Egypt. Using a broadly applied methodology, a fiscal incidence analysis is conducted using survey and government data for fiscal year 2015. Evidence shows that Egyptian fiscal policy reduces income inequality, and that among individual fiscal programs, the largest reduction is due to public expenditures on the primary education system. Compared with similar countries, Egypt's overall fiscal policy placed it in the median of the distribution of inequality reduction. Fiscal policies in Egypt also led to a decrease in poverty, mostly from the flagship Tamween program. Poverty and inequality could be reduced more effectively if the country would shift away from spending on untargeted energy subsidies to more targeted transfers. The large gap between the government's expenditures and revenues helps explain the positive outcomes on poverty and inequality but poses challenges in the long term.

Tunisian social development policy making has always counted on energy subsidies to play a pivotal role. Due to the increasingly unsustainable budget implications, a new strategy has begun to reform the subsidy system in the energy sector while striking a balance between improving fiscal and equity considerations without increasing social tensions. This paper presents an analysis of the fiscal and distributive consequences of the changes to the subsidy setup announced by the government at the end of 2014. The results show that raising electricity prices for consumers and removing subsidies for other energy sources would lead to a short-term increase in the poverty rate of 2.5 percentage points. In addition, compensation mechanisms that could be readily implemented (such as universal coverage or building on the existing health cards system) will not bring substantive counterweight to the increased poverty, even if all savings of reforms could be perfectly channeled as cash transfers. The analysis suggests that bold reforms of energy subsidies need to be accompanied by equally bold improvements to the targeting schemes of public spending if poverty and disparities are to be substantively reduced.

Uruguay is a regional leader in the path toward social inclusion. Sustained economic growth and redistributive policies have made it the most egalitarian country in Latin America. However, some groups are still excluded. Afro-descendants, persons with disabilities, women particularly in female-headed households and LGBTI people are more likely to be excluded. They face unequal opportunities, lower accumulation of human capital and skills, and a lack of voice and agency to have their points of views and aspirations of development included in decision making. This translates into disadvantages in education, health, housing, political representation, and employment, among others, and a higher tendency to live in poorer regions and slums. Excluded groups are also confronted with glass ceilings in the job market, which result in lower incomes and fewer opportunities. Uruguay has a robust matrix of social policies and one of the highest levels of public social spending in the region, but atomization of social programs and lack of coordination between them compromises their effectiveness. Closing the remaining gaps is possible and may not require large additional spending. Very often, changes in preexisting programs is all it takes to make them more socially inclusive. Policies that put social inclusion at their core do not necessarily do more, but they do things differently.