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For effective program evaluation, it is necessary to specify a counterfactual state, i.e., what would have happened without the program. Conventional approaches to program evaluation, preoccupied with technical and value issues, fail to address directly the need for counterfactual arguments. They also fail to recognize the indispensable role of positive theories of technical and behavioral processes in making these arguments. In order to understand the impact of the General Revenue Sharing (GRS) program on the fiscal behavior of municipal governments, Patrick Larkey develops and demonstrates an unconventional approach to program evaluation that overcomes these failures.Drawing on the positive theories of budgetary decisionmaking processes as well as longitudinal revenue and expenditure data from primary sources, the author specifies, estimates, and tests four "bureaucratic process" models for each of five city governments receiving GRS funds. Using these models to generate complex, counterfactual hypotheses, he then compares the counterfactual patterns with observed patterns to understand the fiscal effects of GRS.Originally published in 1979.The Princeton Legacy Library uses the latest print-on-demand technology to again make available previously out-of-print books from the distinguished backlist of Princeton University Press. These paperback editions preserve the original texts of these important books while presenting them in durable paperback editions. The goal of the Princeton Legacy Library is to vastly increase access to the rich scholarly heritage found in the thousands of books published by Princeton University Press since its founding in 1905

For effective program evaluation, it is necessary to specify a counterfactual state, i.e., what would have happened without the program. Conventional approaches to program evaluation, preoccupied with technical and value issues, fail to address directly the need for counterfactual arguments. They also fail to recognize the indispensable role of positive theories of technical and behavioral processes in making these arguments. In order to understand the impact of the General Revenue Sharing (GRS) program on the fiscal behavior of municipal governments, Patrick Larkey develops and demonstrates an unconventional approach to program evaluation that overcomes these failures.Drawing on the positive theories of budgetary decisionmaking processes as well as longitudinal revenue and expenditure data from primary sources, the author specifies, estimates, and tests four "bureaucratic process" models for each of five city governments receiving GRS funds. Using these models to generate complex, counterfactual hypotheses, he then compares the counterfactual patterns with observed patterns to understand the fiscal effects of GRS.Originally published in 1979.The Princeton Legacy Library uses the latest print-on-demand technology to again make available previously out-of-print books from the distinguished backlist of Princeton University Press. These editions preserve the original texts of these important books while presenting them in durable paperback and hardcover editions. The goal of the Princeton Legacy Library is to vastly increase access to the rich scholarly heritage found in the thousands of books published by Princeton University Press since its founding in 1905.

A study is made of systematic evaluation problems connected with the General Revenue Sharing program. Evaluation of the program is difficult due to (1) lack of planned experiments, (2) dependence of program effects upon the discretionary responses of many individuals & organizations, & (3) difficulty in assessing probable outcomes had the program never been enacted. The role of 'process models' in program evaluation is considered. A summary is offered of research on the impact of General Revenue Sharing on municipal fiscal behavior using models of municipal resource allocation processes. While quasi-experimental research designs have been characterized as inherently inferior to experimental designs for program evaluation, no such inherent inferiority was found. When good descriptive models or behavior are available, it is possible to evaluate programs rigorously without classic experimental research designs. 8 Figures. Modified HA.

Government budgets are premised on forecasts of revenues & expenditures, which are subject to both stochastic error & strategic manipulation. Evidence from budgeting literature & the popular media suggests that government officials routinely bias the forecasts underlying budgets. Based on the literature & an analysis of the incentives facing politicians & bureaucrats, several hypotheses about budget biases are developed & tested using time-series data for Pittsburgh, Pa (1946-1983); San Diego, Calif (1950-1982); & the Pittsburgh, Pa, School District (1941-1983). In these locales over the periods examined, budgets were systematically pessimistic; revenues were underestimated & expenditures were overestimated. The fiscal & electoral factors hypothesized to account for this pessimism are, however, mixed in their ability to explain the biases. 7 Tables, 2 Figures. Modified HA

Analysis of fiscal and electoral factors; based on data from Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, and San Diego, California, 1940s to 1980s. Compares estimates to actual expenditures and revenues.

An introduction to a special issue of Policy Sciences on the role of models in the social sciences, & social science models in policy analysis. In addition to summarizing the contents of the volume, the introduction addresses some general issues, including the relationships between theory & practice & basic & applied research. Advice to patrons of research is also offered. Modified AA.

ABSTRACTThis paper surveys literature from several disciplines on how and why governments grow. The empirical question as to whether, or to what degree, government has grown is critically entwined with the nature of the 'dependent variable' chosen (federal government expenditures as a proportion of GNP, total real public expenditures, number of government employees as a percentage of the workforce, etc.). Specific approaches to the study of government growth considered include those associated with: Wagner's 'Law', the 'Displacement Effect Hypothesis', formal models of political and economic behavior, behavioral views of organizational decision making, the ineffectiveness of the public sector in coping with economic decline, and Marxist views.