Suchergebnisse

Près de 5 % des immigrés résidant en Espagne ont décidé de quitter le pays en 2009. L'Espagne est récemment devenue à la fois un pays d'accueil des migrants internationaux et un point de départ pour les immigrés. Cette émigration n'implique toutefois pas systématiquement un retour au pays d'origine. L'article analyse l'émigration des immigrés résidant en Espagne, en distinguant les retours au pays des mouvements à destination d'un pays tiers, pour la période 2002-2009. À partir des changements de résidence répertoriés dans les registres de population (EVR), l'auteure étudie les caractéristiques sociodémographiques des immigrés et celles sur les pays de destination et d'origine des migrants, ainsi que leurs effets sur la probabilité de retour. Les immigrés venus d'Asie, d'Afrique et d'Amérique latine ont de moindres probabilités de rentrer dans leur pays de naissance. Les résultats montrent que plus le PNB par tête dans le pays de destination est important ou plus le taux de chômage dans la région d'origine est élevé, plus la probabilité d'émigration vers un pays tiers est forte ; plus l'effectif des immigrés est important par rapport à la population de la région d'accueil, plus la probabilité est forte que l'émigration se fasse vers le pays d'origine.

AbstractThis article attempts to determine whether the peace negotiation process initiated in Colombia that culminated with the Peace Treaty in 2016 had a positive economic effect, using the National Gross Domestic Product per capita as a measure. We apply a synthetic control method that is appropriate for a policy evaluation. Considering the anticipated and realized effects on economic variables, our results suggest that the Peace Treaty has positively influenced gross domestic product per capita. Furthermore, this positive effect has been maintained through 2021, the last available year of data. Data to 2021 show post‐pandemic Colombia is better off when compared with a hypothetical Colombia—or synthetic Colombia—that did not begin a peace negotiation process.

AbstractThe aim of this paper is to study the relationship between internal migration and Spanish regional convergence between 1972 and 1998, a period between the mass emigration prior to the 1970s and the mass immigration of the end of the twentieth century. The main results indicate that internal migration led to a fall in Spanish regional development gaps. However, internal migration did not lead to the disappearance of these gaps in the long term. Some regions will always receive workers, others will send them out and a third group will experience a sequence of migration reversals. The econometric methodology used allows us to identify structural breaks and to differentiate between long‐ and short‐term effects. This approach enables predictions to be made for internal migration flows in the long term in the absence of shocks.

This paper attempts to determine whether regularization programs of illegal immigrants have a magnet effect. Using a comparative case study approach, we analyze the most recent amnesty implemented in Spain. More specifically, we apply a synthetic control method that is suitable for the evaluation of policies at the country level. Our results suggest that the increasing trend followed by the foreign population in the period analyzed is not a consequence of the amnesty under scrutiny. Rather, it corresponds to the path for a counterfactual country with similar socioeconomic characteristics.

In spite of the fact that in recent years there has been a growing interest for the hidden economy, little attention has been lent to its relation with the illegal immigration as a consequence of the establishment of quotas. The objective of this work is to analyze the effect of a change in the quotas of legal immigrants in the size of the legal and illegal migration, the underground economy, and in the incomes perceived by the workers. The main conclusions are that, as opposed to the short time, in the long-term equilibrium, an increment of the quota does not have effect on the size of the migration, but in the composition between legal and illegal. On the other hand diminishes the work destined to the management of the underground economy by the reduction of illegal immigrants in the stationary state, however the effect is positive in the short run by the "called effect" of illegal immigrants that carries an increment in the quota.