Suchergebnisse

DRAG (from un modele de la Demande Routiere, des Accidents et leur Gravite) is a complex computer model that simulates accident propensities under detailed conditions. The DRAG approach constitutes the largest road accident modelling effort ever undertaken. Gaudry is the creator and developer of DRAG and this work explains its nature, purpose and value. Such a model, which explains accidents for a whole region, province or country, has advantages in answering many questions asked about accidents (such as the role of the economic cycle, weather, prices, insurance etc.) that other models fail to take fully into account. DRAG research is underpinned by a fundamental theoretical innovation which sees a 3-level approach to analysing the determinants of the number of road victims in a given accident: Exposure (the distance travelled), Accident Frequency Risk and Accident Severity Risk (i.e. the number of victims of each type of accident). In applying flexible mathematical forms, the DRAG model also allows significant conceptual and empirical claims to be made about the importance of detecting responses that reverse themselves (to alcohol, and to other factors). Under Gaudry's guidance, a family of DRAG-inspired models has grown up, based on their development for different countries and this book explores each national model in turn. As more countries seek to adopt the DRAG approach, this book serves as a timely, unique and valuable guide to the model.

Ce papier présente les résultats de la première évaluation des conséquences d'un accident de la route non mortel en France. Par la méthode d'évaluation contingente, dans le cadre de l'enquête MARC, des répondants révèlent leur consentement à payer (CAP) pour éviter un des 5 scénarii accidentels proposés. Le questionnaire informatisé est administré en face à-face à un échantillon représentatif de jeunes conducteurs français âgés de 18 à 25 ans. On observe une relation croissante entre niveau de CAP et gravité des conséquences et une corrélation positive entre le CAP et le revenu. Le sexe et les facteurs liés aux habitudes de conduite des individus n'affectent pas le CAP.

En France, la mortalité routière a atteint un pic en 1972 (18 000 morts cette année-là), puis baissé jusqu'à 5 500 morts en 2005, le déclin étant plus ou moins régulier en fonction des mesures prises en faveur de la sécurité routière. Parmi les différents facteurs, les limitations de vitesse et l'obligation de port de la ceinture (1972), puis la politique répressive fondée sur une meilleure application des règles (2003) ont été déterminants. Récemment, la réduction de la vitesse moyenne a joué un rôle important. La mortalité routière reste néanmoins très élevée chez les jeunes (un tué sur cinq), principalement les hommes. Pour cette tranche d'âge, l'enquête MARC menée auprès des 18-24 ans révèle l'importance de l'influence des pairs dans les comportements infractionnistes (vitesse, alcoolémie, non-port de la ceinture). L'enquête indique également la propension des jeunes à relativiser ces comportements : quoique les motivations diffèrent, « l'intention d'infraction » est en effet aussi répandue chez les hommes que chez les femmes, débutants ou plus expérimentés.

This paper presents analyses of how the economic recession that started in 2008 has influenced the number of traffic fatalities in OECD countries. Previous studies of the relationship between economic recessions and changes in the number of traffic fatalities are reviewed. Based on these studies, a causal diagram of the relationship between changes of the business cycle and changes in the number of traffic fatalities is proposed. This causal model is tested empirically by means of multivariate analyses and analyses of accident statistics for Great Britain and Sweden. Economic recession, as indicated both by slower growth of, or decline of gross national product, and by increased unemployment is associated with an accelerated decline in the number of traffic fatalities, i.e. a larger decline than the long-term trend that is normal in OECD countries. The principal mechanisms bringing this about are a disproportionate reduction of driving among high-risk drivers, in particular young drivers and a reduction of fatality rate per kilometre of travel, probably attributable to changes in road user behaviour that are only partly observable. The total number of vehicle kilometres of travel did not change very much as a result of the recession. The paper is based on an ITF-report that presents the analyses in greater detail.

This paper presents analyses of how the economic recession that started in 2008 has influenced the number of traffic fatalities in OECD countries. Previous studies of the relationship between economic recessions and changes in the number of traffic fatalities are reviewed. Based on these studies, a causal diagram of the relationship between changes of the business cycle and changes in the number of traffic fatalities is proposed. This causal model is tested empirically by means of multivariate analyses and analyses of accident statistics for Great Britain and Sweden. Economic recession, as indicated both by slower growth of, or decline of gross national product, and by increased unemployment is associated with an accelerated decline in the number of traffic fatalities, i.e. a larger decline than the long-term trend that is normal in OECD countries. The principal mechanisms bringing this about are a disproportionate reduction of driving among high-risk drivers, in particular young drivers and a reduction of fatality rate per kilometre of travel, probably attributable to changes in road user behaviour that are only partly observable. The total number of vehicle kilometres of travel did not change very much as a result of the recession. The paper is based on an ITF-report that presents the analyses in greater detail.