Bargaining on Pensions: The Finnish Pension Reform of 2001–2002
In: Collective Bargaining and Wage Formation, S. 169-186
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In: Collective Bargaining and Wage Formation, S. 169-186
In: Contemporary Economic Policy, Band 36, Heft 3, S. 467-482
SSRN
In: Contemporary economic policy: a journal of Western Economic Association International, Band 36, Heft 3, S. 467-482
ISSN: 1465-7287
We find that linking statutory retirement ages to life expectancy is a promising way to extend working lives and generate enough tax revenues so that generations enjoying longer lifetimes can also pay for the consequent increase in pensions and public health and long‐term care (LTC) expenditure. We use a numerical economic model, calibrated to the Finnish economy and demographics, in which mortality affects both retirement ages and per capita use of health and LTC services. Uncertainty in mortality projections and the resulting uncertainties in public finances and retirement policy effects are considered explicitly. (JEL H30, H63, H68, J11)
In: CESifo Working Paper Series No. 5640
SSRN
Working paper
In: Revue économique, Band 59, Heft 5, S. 913-926
ISSN: 1950-6694
Résumé Lorsqu'on cherche à évaluer la situation budgétaire des systèmes publics de retraites, on doit projeter les évolutions démographiques à un horizon de plusieurs dizaines d'années. L'exactitude de telles projections et les conséquences sur les retraites futures peuvent être analysées à l'aide de simulations stochastiques de population. Les études effectuées sur des pays et utilisant ce type de projections montrent que l'incertitude démographique rend les prévisions de retraites à long terme très imprécises. Ces études montrent que l'ampleur de l'incertitude est bien plus grande que celle obtenue en se fondant sur des scénarios (haut-bas) ou des variantes du même ordre. Cela ne doit pas être interprété comme une incitation à l'inaction ; les pertes importantes de bien-être dans les cas défavorables constituent, au contraire, un bon argument en faveur de politiques actives. Dans l'analyse de politiques de retraites, les projections stochastiques de population peuvent être utilisées pour mettre en évidence les risques démographiques. Une analyse explicite de ce risque est particulièrement utile pour les politiques qui lient le niveau des retraites aux évolutions démographiques, en ajustant par exemple les prestations en fonction des variations de l'espérance de vie ou en passant à un système non provisionné à cotisations définies. JEL Code: H55, J11
In: The Geneva papers on risk and insurance - issues and practice, Band 32, Heft 1, S. 75-94
ISSN: 1468-0440
A major reform in the Finnish private-sector earnings-related pension system came into effect on January 1st, 2005. It was negotiated in 2001 – 2002 between the central organisations of employers and trade unions and representatives of the central government. This paper describes the reform and analyses its effects on selected macroeconomic variables, on the pension system and on the position of different birth cohorts and different educational groups. The reform appears to be successful in many respects. It simplifies the private-sector pension system and makes it a model that other pension systems in Finland will converge to. The reform rewards postponing retirement. It curbs the increase in contribution rate without endangering the adequacy of replacement rates. The increase in labour supply will have beneficial welfare effects. The new system also responds rather well to uncertain future demographics. Despite this apparent success of the reform there remains a serious doubt of its adequacy, as contribution rates are still expected to rise by several percentage points.
BASE
In: The Geneva papers on risk and insurance - issues and practice, Band 29, Heft 4, S. 620-639
ISSN: 1468-0440
In: Social Security Pension Reform in Europe, S. 263-284
In: Springer eBook Collection
Population aging raises a number of issues regarding the optimality of public debt policy and the systems of public pension provisions that are in use in developed countries. The studies in this book address these questions using computable general equilibrium models. They give illuminating insights and new empirical estimates of future prospects of pay-as-you-go pension schemes in the "big seven" OECD countries, the possible distortions introduced by the pension systems in four large European economies, the effects of lifetime uncertainty in analyzing a potential reform of the Dutch pension system, effects of increasing international mobility of financial capital to pension policies, and public debt reduction policies in relation to possible adverse effects of taxation on wage formation and unemployment
In: The journal of policy reform, Band 5, Heft 1, S. 17-36
ISSN: 1477-2736
In: International journal of forecasting, Band 12, Heft 3, S. 373-381
ISSN: 0169-2070
In: International journal of forecasting, Band 30, Heft 4, S. 1098-1109
ISSN: 0169-2070
12 Uncertain demographics, longevity adjustment of the retirement age and intergenerational risk-sharing13 A general equilibrium analysis of annuity rates in the presence of aggregate mortality risk; COMMENT The economics of demographic uncertainty; Index.
In: PHARE ACE Programme Discussion Paper Series, No. 20/1
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