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Future migration is central to contemporary politics, but we know little of how citizens and policy-makers perceive and predict migratory trends. I analyze migration forecasting in a representative sample of the population of France, using survey data and administrative records to document differences in the accuracy of forecasting among groups of individuals. The article takes an interdisciplinary approach to future-oriented thinking, conceiving it as a distributed cognitive process, and showing that educational attainment and migratory background shape one's ability to predict short-term trends. My analysis stresses the importance of accounting for sociodemographic characteristics and social networks in forecasting: I show that social diversity can improve predictions and extend studies based on the Delphi methodology by discussing the relevant expertise to forecast in different realms.

Abstract This paper shows how economic remittances undergird the circulation of social remittances between New York, Paris, and Dakar. It compares the transnational practices of Senegalese-born migrants living in France and in the United States during the 2012 Senegalese presidential campaign to demonstrate how economic and political transnational practices mutually reinforce each other. This paper contributes to scholarship in three key ways: it confirms the benefits of combining qualitative and quantitative transnational data, collected from origin and destination countries. It offers a welcome geographic extension to a literature on social remittances from which Africa remains absent. It makes a significant theoretical contribution by connecting economic sociology and migration studies to illuminate the impact of migrants' transnational practices.

<p class="resume">Cette contribution propose un retour sur une enquête collective, interdisciplinaire et transnationale menée entre le Sénégal et la France. L'envie de comprendre les dimensions économiques et sociales des transferts d'argent des migrants sénégalais vivant en France a donné naissance à un dispositif empirique original : l'enquête « Terrains Interdisciplinaires et Multi-sites : Migrations et Engagements » (TIMME).</p>

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