Suchergebnisse

The EU-Vietnam Free Trade Agreement (EUVFTA) that came into force on 1 August 2020 is the latest in a string of free trade agreements that Vietnam has concluded to bolster its exports. The EUVFTA's twin agreement, the EU-Vietnam Investment Protection Agreement (EVIPA), has also been ratified by Vietnam. Once it comes into force, the agreement is expected to attract more European investors into Vietnam, which has already been a favourite foreign direct investment (FDI) destination in the region. More than 30 years since adopting market-based economic reforms in 1986, Vietnam has turned itself from an isolated pariah state and one of the least developed countries into one of the fastest-growing and most dynamic economies in the world. Vietnam's success story is unmistakably based on an extraordinary level of economic openness premised upon international trade and investment regimes like the EUVFTA and the EVIPA. But while most attention has been paid to the benefits that Vietnam had gained from its deepening international economic integration, much less has been said of the consequences of Vietnam's over-reliance on exports and FDI.

Vietnam's unprecedented anti-corruption campaign led by Communist Party of Vietnam (CPV) General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong since 2016 has resulted in the arrest and prosecution of dozens of high-ranking officials. The most notable ones include former Politburo member and Party Secretary of Ho Chi Minh City Dinh La Thang, former ministers of information and communication Nguyen Bac Son and Truong Minh Tuan, and former deputy ministers of public security Bui Van Thanh and Tran Nhat Tan. Apart from government officials, many bankers and senior executives at major SOEs and private companies have also fallen victim to the campaign. The campaign can therefore be seen as a key highlight in Vietnamese politics over the past three years and will undoubtedly go down as one of the most important legacies of Mr. Trong's stewardship. While analysts have extensively examined the political impact of the campaign, especially on the power consolidation of Mr. Trong and his allies, little attention has been paid to whether and how the campaign has impacted the country's economic performance. This article seeks to offer insights into this aspect of the campaign by examining its impact on the country's real estate market, especially in Ho Chi Minh City, where the campaign has led to the investigation into, and thus the delay of, a great number of property development projects.

Vietnam, which is included in the BRI's geographical scope and has a great need for infrastructure investments, stands to benefit from the Initiative. However, apart from some statements welcoming the BRI and proposing principles for its implementation, Vietnam's reactions to the Initiative remain largely ambivalent because of the complex political, economic and strategic relationship between the two countries. This essay will analyze the BRI's implications for Vietnam, Vietnam's initial responses to the Initiative, and its future prospects in the country.

Vietnam's fiscal position has deteriorated rapidly in recent years. For example, its budget deficit in 2015 increased 14 per cent to reach 256 trillion dongs (US$11.47 billion), equivalent to 6.1 per cent of its GDP (CafeF, 2016). The country's increasingly precarious fiscal position has been identified by experts as an urgent matter that can generate potential risks for its long-term macro-economic stability (see, for example, Financial Times, 2016; VnExpress, 2015b). It also poses a considerable challenge for Vietnam's new government in achieving socio-economic targets set by the recent twelfth congress of the Communist Party of Vietnam (CPV). If the fiscal imbalance persists or worsens, it will generate serious economic, political and strategic implications for Vietnam. Solving or mitigating the problem, however, will require not only sound economic policies but also political determination to embrace challenging reforms on the part of the CPV. This essay seeks to examine this particular problem and its implications. It provides first an overview of Vietnam's worsening fiscal position and its underlying reasons, and then an analysis of the economic, political and strategic implications that can be expected in the coming years.

This paper seeks to analyze the new dynamics in this triangular relationship and their implications. By adopting a three-level analysis approach, it will examine three of the most important factors at the systemic, national and sub-national levels which currently shape the relationship from a Vietnamese perspective. These factors are the increasing strategic competition between the US and China, the level of strategic trust between Vietnam and the two powers, and Vietnam's domestic political and economic developments. The paper is divided into four sections. The first three analyze the mentioned dynamics, while the final section discusses possible implications for the region. The paper argues that new dynamics in the triangle are conducive to the improvement of Vietnam-US relations while unfavourable for Ha Noi's ties with Beijing. Vietnam's relations with the US will therefore improve significantly, while its relations with China will suffer significant setbacks. However, these trends may still be constrained by traditional factors shaping Vietnam's foreign policy, such as ideological considerations and Vietnam's wish to maintain a balance between the two great powers.

This essay provides a preliminary assessment of the potential economic, political and strategic impact of the TPP on Vietnam. It argues that Vietnam may gain significantly in terms of GDP growth, export performance and FDI inflow. In the long term, the economy will also benefit if further legal, institutional and administrative reforms are undertaken along with improvements in the state-owned and private sectors. Politically, immediate impacts will be limited, but the country may become more open and conducive to further liberalization in the long run. In strategic terms, the agreement will help the country improve its strategic position, especially vis-à-vis China in the South China Sea, although such an impact is not imminent and should not be exaggerated. The essay is divided into four sections. The first provides an overview of Vietnam's recent international integration agenda and its participation in TPP negotiations. The other three will analyse the agreement's economic, political and strategic impacts on the country.

Vietnam-US relations have kept strengthening since bilateral normalization in 1995, including in the defence and strategic domains. This has turned the two countries into increasingly important security partners for each other. The shared perception of the China threat, especially in the South China Sea, provided the strongest momentum towards bilateral strategic rapprochement in recent years despite the strategic uncertainties generated by the Trump administration. Such strategic dynamics also shaped Vietnam's supportive view of the US-led regional and global orders. In the short to medium term, challenges for bilateral relations include the further improvement of mutual trust and the building up of Vietnam's capacity to participate in more substantive defence cooperation initiatives with the United States. In the long run, how to balance its strengthening ties with Washington and the troubling yet important relationship with Beijing remains a challenge for Hanoi. Vietnam's support for the US-led rules-based international order should remain persistent, but will vary depending on the shifting dynamics in Vietnam's relations with China as well as Sino-US strategic competition.

Vietnam has officially admitted its failure to achieve industrialized economy status by 2020. This failure is partly due to its inability to grow a strong local manufacturing base and develop key strategic industries. The participation of Vingroup, the country's largest private conglomerate, in the automotive industry has sparked new hopes for Vietnam's industrialization drive. The company, through its subsidiary Vinfast, aims to become a leading automaker in Southeast Asia with an annual capacity of 500,000 units and a localization ratio of 60 per cent by 2025. Challenges that Vinfast faces include its unproven track record in the industry; the limited size of the national car market; the lack of infrastructure to support car usage in Vietnam; the intense competition from foreign brands; and its initial reliance on imported technologies and know-hows. However, Vinfast enjoys certain advantages in the domestic market, including the large potential of the Vietnamese automotive market; its freedom as a new automaker to define its business strategies without having to deal with legacy issues; Vingroup's sound business and financial performance and its ecosystem; strong support from the Vietnamese government; and nationalist sentiments that will encourage certain Vietnamese customers to choose its products. If Vinfast is successful, it will boost Vietnam's GDP growth and reinvent the country's automotive industry. Its success will also contribute significantly to the realization of Vietnam's industrialization ambitions and bring private actors into the centre stage of the economy. If the company fails, however, it will cause considerable problems for both Vingroup and the Vietnamese economy.

Vietnam has officially admitted its failure to achieve industrialized economy status by 2020. This failure is partly due to its inability to grow a strong local manufacturing base and develop key strategic industries.The participation of Vingroup, the country's largest private conglomerate, in the automotive industry has sparked new hopes for Vietnam's industrialization drive. The company, through its subsidiary Vinfast, aims to become a leading automaker in Southeast Asia with an annual capacity of 500,000 units and a localization ratio of 60 per cent by 2025.

This book examines how the interaction between political and economic factors under Doi Moi has shaped Vietnam's China policy and bilateral relations since the late 1980s.After providing a historical background, the book examines the conflicting effects that Doi Moi has generated on bilateral relations. It demonstrates that Vietnam's economic considerations following the adoption of Doi Moi contributed decidedly to the Sino-Vietnamese normalization in 1991 as well as the continuous improvements in bilateral ties ever since. At the same time, Vietnam's economic activities in the South China Sea and China's responses have intensified bilateral rivalry and put their ties under considerable strains.The book goes on to argue that Doi Moi has indeed brought Vietnam newfound opportunities to develop a multi-level Omni-directional hedging strategy against China. Finally, the book concludes by looking at the prospects of democratization in both countries and assessing the future trajectory of their relations under such circumstances. As the most comprehensive and up-to-date survey of Vietnam's relations with China over the past thirty years, the book is a useful reference source for academics, policymakers, students, and anyone interested in contemporary Vietnam foreign policy in general and Vietnam-China relations in particular

Frontmatter -- FOREWORD -- EXECUTIVE SUMMARY -- INTRODUCTION -- BILATERAL NORMALIZATION AND THE "THREE NO'S PRINCIPLE" -- THE INCREASING IRRELEVANCE OF THE "THREE NO'S PRINCIPLE" -- THE CASE FOR VIETNAM'S PURSUIT OF ALLIANCE POLITICS -- HOW HAS VIETNAM PURSUED ALLIANCE POLITICS? -- CONCLUSION -- REFERENCES