Suchergebnisse

Forward Links to Citing Articles




Retraction. Risk Analysis 25: 6, 1683 In the framework of the APHEIS program (Air Pollution and Health: A European Information System), a health impact assessment of air pollution in 26 European cities was performed for particles of an aerodynamic diameter less than or equal to 10 μm (PM10). For short‐term effects, it was based on overall estimates from the APHEA‐2 project (Air Pollution and Health: A European Approach). These city‐specific risk assessments require city‐specific concentration‐response functions, raising the question of which concentration‐response is most appropriate. Estimates from city‐specific models are more specific, but have greater uncertainty than those provided from multicity analyses. We compared several estimates derived from the city‐specific analyses in cities that were part of the APHEA‐2 project, as well as in a city that was not included in APHEA‐2 but was part of the APHEIS project. These estimates were: the estimates from a local regression model, the adjusted estimates based on two significant effect modifiers identified through meta‐regression models, and the city‐specific empirical Bayes (shrunken) estimates and their underlying distribution. The shrunken and adjusted estimates were used to improve the estimation of city‐specific concentration‐response function. From these different estimates, attributable numbers of deaths per year were calculated. The advantages and limits of the different approaches are discussed through real data and in a simulation study.

Background: Since the 1970s, legislation has led to progress in tackling several air pollutants. We quantify the annual monetary benefits resulting from reductions in mortality from the year 2000 onwards following the implementation of three European Commission regulations to reduce the sulphur content in liquid fuels for vehicles. Methods: We first compute premature deaths attributable to these implementations for 20 European cities in the Aphekom project by using a two-stage health impact assessment method. We then justify our choice to only consider mortality effects as short-term effects. We rely on European studies when selecting the central value of a life-year estimate (€2005 86 600) used to compute the monetary benefits for each of the cities. We also conduct an independent sensitivity analysis as well as an integrated uncertainty analysis that simultaneously accounts for uncertainties concerning epidemiology and economic valuation. Results: The implementation of these regulations is estimated to have postponed 2212 (95% confidence interval: 772–3663) deaths per year attributable to reductions in sulphur dioxide for the 20 European cities, from the year 2000 onwards. We obtained annual mortality benefits related to the implementation of the European regulation on sulphur dioxide of €2005 191.6 million (95% confidence interval: €2005 66.9–€2005 317.2). Conclusion: Our approach is conservative in restricting to mortality effects and to short-term benefits only, thus only providing the lower-bound estimate. Our findings underline the health and monetary benefits to be obtained from implementing effective European policies on air pollution and ensuring compliance with them over time.