Suchergebnisse

Changes in population age structure matter for public finances because the beneficiaries of public programs are primarily children and the elderly. This paper projects government spending on education, health care, and social protection in developing Asia up to 2050 using the National Transfer Accounts data set, United Nations' population projections, and other long-range projections for real gross domestic product (GDP) to estimate likely fiscal burdens as a result of demographic changes and economic growth. The share of GDP devoted to public spending on health care and social protection will increase as demographic change and economic growth are mutually reinforcing. On the contrary, the share devoted to public spending on education will decline in Asia and the Pacific as a decline in fertility and the share of the school-age population dominates the increase in per capita benefits. The magnitude and the pattern by program, however, vary substantially as demographic change, growth, and the current level of public spending are quite different across economies. Social spending in the Republic of Korea; the People's Republic of China; and Taipei,China is projected to more than double as a share of GDP by 2050, while it will be more modest in other areas of Asia and the Pacific.

Benefit incidence analyses provide important insights into problems facing any government struggling to deliver essential and equitable social services. Utilizing the framework of the National Transfer Accounts Project, this paper analyzes the benefit incidence of public transfers across generations and socioeconomic groups in the People's Republic of China in 2009. Public education transfers were equally distributed by residence, gender, and income groups at the primary and secondary levels but favored city dwellers, females, and the wealthy at the tertiary level. Public health-care programs tended to equally target the young and middle-aged from different socioeconomic groups but tilted toward urban dwellers, males, and higher income groups at older ages. Public pension spending strongly favored high-income groups, with rural residents, females, and lower income groups receiving greatly reduced benefits. Our results also indicate that total public spending favored elderly people as spending per person 65 years and older was twice that per child younger than 19. In the next 10 or 20 years, the government should endeavor to improve and strengthen public support systems. In addition to this effort, the currently fragmented health insurance system and pension system should move toward a unified system to reduce inequalities in benefit incidence across socioeconomic groups.

From receiving countries' point of view, immigration may be an attractive policy option because it may attenuate the pace of aging in countries further along in their demographic transitions. Immigration policy potentially has important economic implications for several reasons. First, solely due to the compositional effects associated with immigration, a larger share of the population could be concentrated in the working ages. Second, immigration, particularly in the form of permanent immigration, may affect transfers and the accumulation of assets. Immigrants pay taxes that support children and the elderly, they have children who are supported by native taxpayers, and they grow old and rely on future generations of taxpayers. In this study, we assess whether cross-border immigration is likely to be an important policy option in response to population aging in Asia. The analysis presented here suggests, however, that realistic immigration policy is not likely to have a substantial influence on population age structure and its economic consequences on both receiving and sending countries are likely to be modest.

Developing Asia's sustained rapid growth has improved general living standards and lifted hundreds of millions of Asians out of poverty within a generation. Yet the region now finds itself confronting rising inequality. Countries where inequality has worsened over the past 2 decades collectively account for over 80% of Asia's population. As a result, governments across the region have begun to accord a higher priority to promoting more inclusive growth. The international experience, especially the experience of the advanced economies, suggests that fiscal policy can make a potent contribution

Population aging is perhaps the single biggest economic and social obstacle confronting Asia's future. The region-wide demographic transition towards an older population is fundamentally reshaping the demographic landscape, and is giving rise to two key socio-economic challenges. This timely book provides an in-depth analysis of these challenges and presents concrete policy options for tackling them. -- First, the expert contributors argue, Asia must find ways to sustain rapid economic growth in the face of less favorable demographics, which implies slower growth of the workforce. Second, they contend, Asia must find ways to deliver affordable, adequate, and sustainable old-age economic security for its growing elderly population. Underpinned by rigorous analysis, a wide range of concrete policy options for sustaining economic growth while delivering economic security for the elderly are then presented. These include Asia-wide policy options – relevant to the entire region – such as building up strong national pension systems, while other policy options are more relevant to sub-groups of countries. -- This stimulating and informative book will be of great interest to academics, students, and researchers with an interest in Asian studies, economics generally, and, more specifically, public sector economics.