Rationally Misplaced Confidence
In: University of Arizona Working Paper 18-05
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In: University of Arizona Working Paper 18-05
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In: University of Arizona Working Paper 17-10
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Working paper
In: NBER Working Paper No. w27880
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In: University of Arizona Department of Economics Working Paper 15-01
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In: NBER Working Paper No. w25008
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In: NBER Working Paper No. w25172
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In: NBER Working Paper No. w23549
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In: NBER Working Paper No. w23420
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In: Environmental and resource economics, Band 67, Heft 4, S. 789-821
ISSN: 1573-1502
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In: University of Arizona Department of Economics Working Paper No. 12-03
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In: American economic review, Band 110, Heft 4, S. 1238-1241
ISSN: 1944-7981
Mattauch et al. (2020) claims that the quantitative conclusions in Lemoine and Rudik (2017)—henceforth, LR17—are not robust to using a climate model consistent with recent scientific results. We observe that LR17 in fact analyzes an extension to a more realistic carbon model that generates an efficient emission tax trajectory very similar to that in Mattauch et al. (2020), and we here show that simplifications in the temperature model of LR17 do not qualitatively affect their policy conclusions. Accounting for inertia reduces the initial emission tax by 42 percent and reduces the present value of abatement cost by 39 percent. (JEL H23, Q54, Q58)
In: NBER Working Paper No. w24310
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In: American economic review, Band 107, Heft 10, S. 2947-2957
ISSN: 1944-7981
Common views hold that the efficient way to limit warming to a chosen level is to price carbon emissions at a rate that increases exponentially. We show that this Hotelling tax on carbon emissions is actually inefficient. The least-cost policy path takes advantage of the climate system's inertia to delay reducing emissions and allow greater cumulative emissions. The efficient carbon tax follows an inverse-U-shaped path and grows more slowly than the Hotelling tax. Economic models that assume exponentially increasing carbon taxes are overestimating the cost of limiting warming, overestimating the efficient near-term carbon tax, and overvaluing technologies that mature sooner. (JEL H23, Q54, Q58)
In: Lemoine, D. and I. Rudik, Managing Climate Change Under Uncertainty: Recursive Integrated Assessment at an Inflection Point. Annu. Rev. Res. Econ. 9, 2017, DOI: 10.1146/annurev-resource-100516-053516
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