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In most democracies, opinion polls routinely ask voters how they intend to vote in an upcoming election. The press and other media use these poll results, specifically the aggregated percentage measures of voting intentions for candidate X, to indicate the likelihood of that candidate winning. While this approach is a practical means of predicting election outcomes, there is a lesser-known survey item that can also serve this purpose, namely questions about voter expectations rather than voter intentions. For example, "Who do you think will win?" rather than "Who are you going to vote for?" A growing body of research has examined the accuracy of voter expectations relative to voter intentions. The most comprehensive work on the subject, looking at more ...

With this month's direct military strikes against each other, a war between Israel and Iran becomes not only conceivable but a growing risk. For all Israel's advantages and determination, with the most sophisticated military in the region and an innovative and resilient economy, it is a small country of less than ten million people. Iran is a large country of over 80 million people whose economy and military capabilities have survived years of crippling sanctions. The outcome would depend on who had the strongest external support. For the time being, Israel has firm international friends and allies, as Iranian diplomats recognise. But that international support is under strain from the Israeli government's refusal to consider any negotiations with the Palestinians ...

Volatility Post-World War II Italian politics has often been marked by significant political instability and frequent changes of government. The twenty-first century period in Italian politics has been characterised by the emergence of new political forces, the decline of traditional parties, and persistent public policy challenges related to corruption, economic stagnation, and immigration (Albertazzi and Zulianello, 2021). Remarkably, Italy has had an astonishing 69 governments in 79 years. This means that on average, governments in Italy last for just over a year. Our forthcoming book "The Rise of the Radical Right in Italy: A New Balance of Power in the Right-Wing Camp" to be published by Columbia University Press and ibidem Press in June 2024 examines the more worrying trend ...

As the European Union (EU) steadily approaches the 2024 elections scheduled for June, attention is focused on the likely formation of a coalition between the conservatives (EPP) and the socialists (S&D). However, amidst this political landscape, a chorus of concern is emerging about the EU's tendency towards authoritarianism, underlined in particular by democratic backsliding in Hungary and Italy (Pietrucci, 2023). Projections indicate a potential consolidation of influence by two far-right factions, namely the Identity and Democracy (ID) and European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR), alongside the independent Hungarian Fidesz, amounting to a considerable 25 per cent share of parliamentary seats (Wax, 2024). Concurrently, the proliferation of radical ideologies within the EPP poses a significant challenge to the wider European sphere, with ...

Over the past two decades, the world has faced a series of crises including economic downturns, political disruptions exemplified by events such as the latest example of the Covid-19 pandemic, which have generated a discourse around a perceived crisis in democratic governance. Due to its perceived association with these crises, populism has become a focal point of both academic inquiry and broader societal discourse, with a strong emphasis on its relationship with democracy (Mény & Surel, 2002). Scholarly investigations into populism have expanded to encompass various dimensions, including its conceptual underpinnings and implications for democratic systems. The existing literature on populism underscores its delineation along two main axes: the assertion of popular sovereignty and the espousal of anti-establishment sentiments. Despite ...

As we witness a rise in radical right politics in Europe and beyond, our host ⁠Cassandra van Douveren⁠ speaks to ⁠Dr. Vicente Valentim⁠, a Postdoctoral Prize Research Fellow at Nuffield College at the University of Oxford. Vicente's work focusses on the role of social norms in normalising the expression of views and behaviours associated with authoritarianism. Join us as we discuss his upcoming book, ⁠The Normalisation of the Radical Right: A Norms Theory of Political Supply and Demand⁠ (forthcoming: September 2024), pathways to restore democratic norms and Vicente's hopes for the future. Politics, Re-Imagined is a series by the Department of Politics and International Relations (DPIR) at the University of Oxford focused on exploring tangible and sustainable solutions to the ...

How can media organisations reach those who feel the news is not for them? And is our current age of fake news fundamentally different from the past? Tune in as our host ⁠Cassandra van Douveren⁠ speaks to ⁠Dr. Rasmus Kleis Nielsen⁠, the Director of the ⁠Reuters Institute for the Study of Journalism⁠ and a Professor of Political Communication at the University of Oxford to discuss these questions. Rasmus' work focusses on the changing role of the news and media in our societies. His recent book, ⁠Avoiding the News: Reluctant Audiences for Journalism (2023)⁠, written with Benjamin Toff and Ruth Palmer, explores why particular audiences are reluctant to follow the news and how this can be addressed. He has also written ...

It was a matter of "religious freedom" – following a request from Serbia, Hungary's veto on the sanctioning of Patriarch Kirill would have been expected. It was one of the interesting takeaways from of a few days spent in the company of pro-Fidesz politicians, pastors, and public intellectuals at the Tusványos summer festival. Gathered in the heart of Romania – home to a sizeable minority of ethnic Hungarians, about 6 per cent of the population – it struck me that Orbán's story is not just a story of Hungary. It is a story of the region, of Europe, and of Hungary's place in the world. A new story about Hungary When Orbán came to power for the second time in ...

What does security mean to different people, in different places, under different circumstances? And what do academics view as the most pressing security issues for the future? In this bonus episode, ⁠Eden Raviv⁠ speaks to ⁠Dr. Edward Howell⁠, Lecturer in Politics at Christ Church at the University of Oxford, to try to understand the concept. Dr. Howell's research focuses on the politics and international relations of North Korea, the Korean Peninsula and East Asia. Join them as they discuss his latest book, North Korea and the Global Nuclear Order: When Bad Behaviour Pays (2023) and talk about North Korea, nuclear proliferation and bridging the divide between academia and policy. Listen on:

According to a recent national survey on crime and victimisation in Brazil, more than fifty per cent of respondents reported having been robbed at least once, while 85 per cent know at least one other person who has been victim of the same crime. Latinobarómetro data from 2023 shows that 59 per cent of Brazilian respondents are worried "all the time" about becoming a crime victim. Such alarming numbers are just the tip of the iceberg when it comes to crime and violence in the largest country in the Southern hemisphere. Results from the most recent National Transport Confederation (Conferederação Brasileira do Transporte, CNT) national poll conducted in mid-January 2024 clearly indicate public safety as the major challenge to be ...

Debate in Israel about the government's strategy in the Gaza war is heating up. While a majority of Israelis still support the war in Gaza, a growing minority are questioning whether continuing the war against Hamas will bring greater security to Israel or stability to the region, arguing that the government's military campaign will perpetuate a conflict damaging all parties – not least Israelis themselves. Benjamin Netanyahu's failure to bring home the Israeli hostages has reinforced tensions and doubt among the public. But continuing the war suits the incumbent government, enabling them to remain in power. Paradoxically, it also suits Hamas. Only when a majority of Israelis themselves conclude that the current strategy puts at risk rather than guarantees their ...

While the writing was already on the wall, the results from the Iowa Republican caucus and New Hampshire primary confirmed that Republican voters are willing to look past Donald Trump's attempt at insurrection and numerous legal battles. As perplexing as it may be for liberals and Democrats, the GOP is all-in for Donald Trump. It seems that it is not only Trump's message of White Christian nationalism that resonates with conservatives, although that is certainly part of his appeal. His election denialism has also struck a chord. Entrance polling ahead of the Iowa caucus found that a staggering 69% of caucus participants do not believe Biden won the election legitimately. But "Stop the Steal" applies to more than just the ...

What does the future of the European Union (EU) look like? Walking along the Rue de la Loi in the European Quarter in Brussels, the white and blue mural stating "The Future is Europe" by graffiti artist NovaDead sends a clear message. The bird in the right-hand corner stands for freedom and peace (referring to the values in Art. 2 of the Treaty on EU), the blue and yellow colours refer to the European flag, and the leaves recall the "green jungle" (a small forest of philodendrons) at the European Parliament in Strasbourg, which could also reflect the complex governance structure of the EU. But beyond this artistic and symbolic vision, what might the future of the EU look like ...

A Dialogic Turn in Online Far-Right Activism Far-right groups, which encompass a broad plethora of cognate paramilitary groups, political parties and protest movements with nativist, authoritarian and populist policy platforms (Mudde 2007; Carter 2018), have increasingly been able to mobilise, exploit, and weaponise the online space for activism and their campaigns. Recent research suggests that such groups have been able to exercise an 'opportunistic pragmatism' when using online platforms, creating new hubs of convergence and influencing elections in countries like Germany, Italy and Sweden (Davey & Ebner 2017 & 2018; Colliver et al 2018). Just as examples of recent far-right successes in the electoral arena now abound, such cases also demonstrate a shift away from parochial concerns in using the ...

Hungary's Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (Our Homeland Movement, MHM) party tells a classic tale of far-right politics. Formed after an internal dispute in the extreme-right Jobbik party, which had been in existence since 2003 and had begun to tone down its rhetoric, the MHM leadership's plan was to occupy the supposedly vacant space on the far right of Hungarian politics. Despite being the third most successful list in the 2019 parliamentary elections, after Viktor Orbán's Fidesz and the united opposition, led by Péter Márki-Zay, the party won only 2 out of 199 seats. MHM's leader, László Toroczkai, is a respected figure on the Hungarian and international far-right scene, being one of the founders of the historically revisionist Sixty-Four Counties Youth Movement, ...