Suchergebnisse

THE CONTROVERSY CONCERNING THE ROLE OF ETHNICITY IN SOUTH AFRICAN ELECTORAL BEHAVIOR AROSE BEFORE THE DEVELOPMENT OF GOODMAN'S METHOD OF LOG-LINEAR ANALYSIS FOR HIERARCHICAL MODELS. A RE-ANALYSIS OF PREVIOUSLY PUBLISHED RESEARCH USING GOODMAN'S METHOD SHOWS THAT ETHNICITY IS NOT THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT FACTOR HAVING A BEARING ON VOTING PROCEDURE.

There is some controversy concerning the role of ethnicity in South African electoral behaviour. Since the society is segmented on ethnic lines it is to be expected that ethnicity would play a crucial role in affecting political choices. Some writers have gone so far as to suggest that ethnicity is the only significant factor affecting voting preferences. The controversy arose at a time when Goodman's method of log-linear analysis for hierarchical models had not yet been developed. This method provides the most powerful tool available for the multivariate analysis of categorical data. A re-analysis of previously published research using Goodman's method shows that ethnicity is not the only significant factor having a bearing on voting preferences. The first four-way table of voting preferences in South Africa is presented. The order of importance of the variables affecting party choice is: (1) ethnicity (2) socio-economic status (3) age of the voter. The recursive model suggested by the analysis explains approximately 98 per cent of the data.

Examined is the role of ethnicity in South African electoral behavior. Since the society is segmented on ethnic lines, it has been widely held that ethnicity plays a crucial role in affecting political choices. Some writers have even suggested that ethnicity is the only significant factor affecting voting preferences. When the controversy arose, Leo A. Goodman's method of log-linear analysis for hierarchical models (see SA 21:3/73G2209) had not yet been developed. Goodman's method is the most powerful tool for multivariate analysis of categorical data. Presented is a reanalysis of previously published data, the most satisfactory being that published by the Afrikaans newspaper Rapport, using Goodman's method. It is shown that ethnicity is not the only significant factor having a bearing on voting preferences. The first 4-way table of voting preferences in South Africa is presented. The order of importance of the variables affecting party choice is: (1) ethnicity, (2) SES, & (3) age of the voter. The recursive model suggested by the analysis explains approximately 98% of the data. 5 Tables. Modified HA.

The 1970 general election marked the first occasion in which opinion polls based on national samples of the white electorate were undertaken in South Africa. One poll was commissioned by the Argus Group of companies--publishers of several newspapers. The Argus poll was based on interviews with a sample of 1,200 workers. Every 1,600th name on the voters' roll in the Cape & Transvaal Provinces & every 800th name in Natal & the Orange Free State was selected. Another poll was commissioned by the Afrikaans Sunday newspaper; this Dagbreek poll took the form of a panel study in which questionnaires were mailed to a national sample of more than 3,000 households. About 65.8% of the R's regarded some aspect of race relations as the most important problem facing South Africa today. In the Bantu homelands, where the native Afrikaans are being given some home rule, many R's felt that too much expense was being put into these homelands. Approximately 1 in every 5 white South Africans saw no advantages to apartheid. There is general support for the view that Africans should be allowed to do more skilled jobs & earn higher wages. 6 Tables. L. DeForge.

An empirical counterpart was sought to a theoretical typology of the orientation of Arabs in Israel to their minority status in a Jewish-Zionist state. The indications were that such an orientation was complex & that the construction of unidimensional attitude scales would not suffice. A set of 60 opinion statements was used in a 5-step procedure in order to arrive at second-order unidimensionality. The procedures involved a principal factor analysis, Guttman scaling, principal component analysis, smallest space analysis, & summated ratings. A comparison between the components & the final scale of orientation is made. This type of part-whole strategy is useful when such conditions as the existence of "sets of opinion," available measurements of a large number of opinions that are diverse & consistent, & a fairly complex research problem are present. 2 Tables, 1 Figure. Modified HA.

This paper investigates the factors influencing the disposition of cases in juvenile courts. The factors considered are the prior record of the offender, the nature of the offense, the recommendation of the probation officer, and the age of the offender. These four factors are essential components of the juvenile justice system and as such are perceived to be crucial for the understanding of the court's decision.A multivariate analysis of the data is undertaken using the method of log‐linear analysis for hierarchical models. In contrast to other studies that have utilized the same method but with fewer variables, the model arrived at in the paper seems to be more accurate and suggests that while the offense and the prior criminal record are quite important factors, their influence on the disposition of cases is greatly bound by the age of the offender and the recommendation of the probation officer.