Reflections on Certain Problems Regarding the Ownership System
In: The Chinese economy: translations and studies, Band 32, Heft 2, S. 61-95
ISSN: 1558-0954
38 Ergebnisse
Sortierung:
In: The Chinese economy: translations and studies, Band 32, Heft 2, S. 61-95
ISSN: 1558-0954
In: Environmental science and pollution research: ESPR, Band 26, Heft 5, S. 4975-4986
ISSN: 1614-7499
In: O'Hare , C & Li , Y 2017 , ' Models of mortality rates – analysing the residuals ' , Applied Economics , vol. 49 , no. 52 , pp. 5309–5323 . https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2017.1305092
The area of mortality modelling has received significant attention over the last 20 years owing to the need to quantify and forecast improving mortality rates. This need is driven primarily by the concern of governments, professionals, insurance and actuarial professionals and individuals to be able to fund their old age. In particular, to quantify the costs of increasing longevity we need suitable model of mortality rates that capture the dynamics of the data and forecast them with sufficient accuracy to make them useful. In this paper we test several of those models by considering the fitting quality and in particular, testing the residuals of those models for normality properties. In a wide ranging study considering 30 countries we find that almost exclusively the residuals do not demonstrate normality. Further, in Hurst tests of the residuals we find evidence that structure remains that is not captured by the models.
BASE
In: O'Hare , C & Li , Y 2017 , ' Modelling mortality: Are we heading in the right direction? ' , Applied Economics , vol. 49 , no. 2 , pp. 170-187 . https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2016.1192278
Predicting life expectancy has become of upmost importance in society. Pension providers, insurance companies, government bodies and individuals in the developed world have a vested interest in understanding how long people will live for. This desire to better understand life expectancy has resulted in an explosion of stochastic mortality models many of which identify linear trends in mortality rates by time. In making use of such models for forecasting purposes we rely on the assumption that the direction of the linear trend (determined from the data used for fitting purposes) will not change in the future, recent literature has started to question this assumption. In this paper we carry out a comprehensive investigation of these types of models using male and female data from 30 countries and using the theory of structural breaks to identify changes in the extracted trends by time. We find that structural breaks are present in a substantial number of cases, that they are more prevalent in male data than in female data, that the introduction of additional period factors into the model reduces their presence, and that allowing for changes in the trend improves the fit and forecast substantially.
BASE
In: Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering part B, Band 1(2), Heft 2015
SSRN
SSRN
In: Journal of economic dynamics & control, Band 31, Heft 10, S. 3396-3426
ISSN: 0165-1889
In: International Review of Financial Analysis, Band 88, Heft 102631
SSRN
In: European Journal of Finance, Band 28(7), Heft 2022
SSRN
In: Journal of economic dynamics & control, Band 117, S. 103961
ISSN: 0165-1889
In: Management Science. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2021.4135
SSRN
In: Macquarie University Faculty of Business & Economics Research Paper
SSRN
Working paper
In: Research in International Business and Finance, Volume 46, December 2018, Pages 131-140
SSRN
SSRN
Working paper
In: Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Band 34, Heft 2016
SSRN
Working paper